Bird Flu Approaching Australia

[pandemic_1918]

Bird flu virus hits W. Nusa Tenggara
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailnational.asp?fileid=20041213.D02&irec=6

Luh Putu Trisna Wahyuni, The Jakarta Post, Mataram

Bird flu has broken out in several parts of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), killing thousands of birds in the provincial capital of Mataram.

The Mataram agriculture and animal husbandry office said that more than 20,000 birds, or 43 percent of the poultry population in 10 out of the 23 subdistricts in the city, had been infected by the Avian Influenza virus.

"Currently, bird flu cases are common here. Generally, the birds infected by the virus have died as there is no cure for the disease," Mataram animal husbandry office veterinarian Dian Diatmiko said.

The outbreak was less severe in the other 13 subdistricts, where about 10 percent of the total poultry population was affected.

Dian said the bird flu virus had only attacked free-range poultry in those areas.

"The virus has only attacked free-range chickens, ducks, geese, pigeons and Manila ducks, but it has spared chickens raised for their meat," he said on Friday.

Dian added that it was the first time that bird flu had hit Mataram this year.

The virus was believed to have been introduced by poultry from outside West Nusa Tenggara, especially from the neighboring island of Bali. Poultry from Bali was free to enter West Nusa Tenggara before the provincial administration issued a ban.

Besides being introduced by poultry, Dian said, the virus could also have been carried by birds from Sulawesi.

The Mataram agriculture and animal husbandry office only declared an alert early this month over the spread of the virus, though domestic fowl were believed to have been infected by the virus since last September.

To prevent the virus from spreading further, the local husbandry office is providing 250,000 doses of the A1 type vaccine for free, Dian said.

He acknowledged that the current rainy season would worsen the spread of bird flu as the virus could survive longer in the open air when temperatures are lower and the soil more moist.

[pandemic_1918]

1. Bird Flu in Indonesia Heading South

Looks like bird flu is on the move in Indonesia, heading south toward northwestern Australia

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_Indonesia.html

[pandemic_1918]

2. Density Map of Poultry in South East Asia

Here is a map of the density of poultry in Southeast Asia

http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/subjects/en/health/diseases-cards/avian_bg.html#

The portion of Indonesia that is the reddest is where the latest outbreak of H5N1 is (reported today).

[NMDemDist2]

3. so pan, are we in for it or what?

can I make a suggestion? why not start a page on Demopedia for all this research and info?

I (for one) would keep an eye on it :)

[Leilani]

4. Since it's heading for Australia,

I think Hawaii better be watching it too.

[pandemic_1918]

5. Migratory Birds - One Flight Away

The H5N1 is probably spreading via migratory birds. The move south in Indonesia brought H5N1 to its most densely populated area for poultry. This will probably lead to infections in more migratory birds heading for Australia, which isn't that close to Hawaii.

Right now the transmission is via birds. If H5N1 becomes readily transmissible via human to human, then the whole world will be "one flight away".

Only requirement is an international airport.

[CAcyclist]

8. Migratory Birds *NOT* Significant Source of Spread

of bird flu in recent epidemics.

Migratory waterfowl, yes, not migratory birds in general


The WHO has determined that poultry smuggling as for fighting cocks is the most likely source of spread. Here, the bird flu is clearly spreading by normal importation of poultry, which can be restricted.

The ingredients needed to foment a mutated bug will include close human-bird contact in densely populated areas. This is a problem in Asian countries that prefer fresh chicken, but I would be highly surprised if Australia is in the running.

In addition, avian flu has been in the US before - it's devastating to the poultry industry, but not likely to result in a mutated form of virus here, due to the highly isolated poultry farms here.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/#howdoes


Avian influenza frequently asked questions

29 January 2004



Outbreaks of avian influenza, especially the highly pathogenic form, can be devastating for the poultry industry and for farmers. For example, an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the USA in
1983–1984, largely confined to the state of Pennsylvania, resulted in the destruction of more than 17 million birds at a cost of nearly US$ 65 million.



How does the disease spread from one country to another?

The disease can spread from country to country through international trade in live poultry.

Migratory birds, including wild waterfowl, sea birds, and shore birds, can carry the virus for long distances and
have, in the past, been implicated in the international spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza.

Migratory waterfowl – most notably wild ducks – are the natural reservoir of bird flu viruses, and these birds are also the most resistant to infection. They can carry the virus over great distances, and excrete it in their droppings, yet develop only mild and short-lived illness.

Domestic ducks, however, are susceptible to lethal infections, as are turkeys, geese, and several other species raised on commercial or backyard farms.

[pandemic_1918]

9. Avian Flu Transmission

Relying on a document from the beginning of 2004 is not a good idea. The latest alert clearly indicated that the same virus that kills people can grow to high titers in asymptomatic ducks.

Here is the disease card from FAO

http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/subjects/en/health/diseases-cards/avian.html

"The immediate source of infection for domestic poultry can seldom be ascertained, but most outbreaks probably start with direct or indirect contact of domestic poultry with waterbirds. Many of the strains that circulate in wild birds are either non-pathogenic or midly pathogenic for poultry. However, a virulent strain may emerge either by genetic mutation or by reassortment of less virulent strains. Scientific evidence indicates that the former mechanism occurredmin 1983-87 in the Eastern United States.

Swine appear to be important in the epidemiology of infection of turkeys with swine influenza virus when they are in close proximity. Other mammals do not appear to be involved in the epidemiology of HPAI. The infection of humans with an H5 avian influenza virus in Hong Hong in 1997 has resulted in a reconsideration of the role of the avian species in the epidemiology of human influenza.

Once AI is established in domestic poultry, it is a highly contagious disease and wild birds are no longer an essential ingredient for spread. Infected birds excrete virus in high concentration in their faeces and also in nasal and ocular discharges. Once introduced into a flock, the virus is spread from flock to flock by the usual methods involving the movement of infected birds, contaminated equipment, egg flats, feed trucks, and service crews, to mention a few. The disease generally spreads rapidly in a flock by direct contact, but on occasions spread is erratic.

Airborne transmission may occur if birds are in close proximity and with appropriate air movement. Birds are readily infected via instillation of virus into the conjunctival sac, nares, or the trachea. Preliminary field and laboratory evidence indicates that virus can be recovered from the yolk and albumen of eggs laid by hens at the height of the disease. The possibility of vertical transmission is unresolved; however, it is unlikely infected embryos could survive and hatch. Attempts to hatch eggs in disease isolation cabinets from a broiler breeder flock at the height of disease failed to result in any AI-infected chickens. This does not mean that broken contaminated eggs could not be the source of virus to infect chicks after they hatch in the same incubator. The hatching of eggs from a diseased flock would likely be associated with considerable risk. "

[pandemic_1918]

10. WHO Update

Here is a recent WHO update

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/labstudy_2004_10_29/en/

It reports the unexpected finding that viruses that kill people can grow to high titers in asymptomatic domestic ducks.

"- Highly pathogenic H5N1 virus replicates in the respiratory and intestinal tracts of experimentally infected domestic ducks and contact ducks. Large amounts of virus (103.5 – 10 5.5 per ml) are excreted via the respiratory route as well as in faeces."

H5N1 comes in several varieties, and migratory birds offer new targets. In Vietnam and Thailand, H5N1 can infect humans and cats (wild and domestic) and there are recent reports of pigeons fall dead from the sky (infected with H5N1) in Thailand

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_pigeons.html

and in the lab the virus kills mice and ferrets.

Assumptions about what H5N1 can and can't do with migratory birds is foolhardy at best.

[pandemic_1918]

12. Wild Birds in Thailand

>>"Migratory Birds *NOT* Significant Source of Spread"<<

I guess you should e-mail WHO and tell them to tell Thailand that today's announcement on H5N1 infections in wild birds is wrong

http://www.mcot.org/query.php?nid=33764

"The infected local species were identified as the Little Cormorant, Asian Openbill, Scaly-breasted Munia (Spotted Munia), Red Turtle-Dove, Black Drongo and pigeon."

As noted earlier, H5N1 pigeons were falling from the sky a couple of weeks ago, leading to school closures

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_pigeons.html

[robcon]

6. More hysteria from pandemic 1918

This is getting sillier every day.

[belab13]

7. I agree, a little diligence is in order but this is getting a tad

ridiculous.


The hour by hour commentary of the pandemic that has not begun yet. and where are the sponsors?

[pandemic_1918]

11. Moving This Thread To Science

Actually, moving this thread to Science shows why it belongs on the Breaking News board. The emergence of H5N1 in Indonesia close to Australian is not a science issue, it is a political issue. How H5N1 emerges may be more for science, but the emergence in a heavily populated poultry area of Indonesia is yet another warning signal to those who would deny that this is a VERY looming threat that is not being taken seriously.

It is why the US is not better prepared in 2004 that it was in 1918 from the pandemic (although the technology clearly exists). The H5N1 pandemic is now sending out signals almost daily, such as the breaking news story at the top of this thread.