Depending on whom you believe, by 2010 as many as 57 million Americans will be listening to podcasts -- audio files downloaded onto a PC or portable listening device. That's almost one of every five people in the country, and a jump from about 6 million people today.
Sound like a lot? The media hype surrounding podcasting, which barely existed 18 months ago, is approaching the dizzying heights once reserved for home delivery of pet food and other dot-com pipe dreams, but one thing is certain: Many of the podcasts available today are free, which begs the question, can anyone ever make money off them?
It's easier to find naysayers. "Creating your own podcast and trying to make a business out of it is a mistake," Mark Cuban, co-founder of Internet streaming company Broadcast.com, wrote in his blog, blogmaverick.com, last week. Many other analysts agree with him: It's one thing for a radio station operator like Clear Channel to offer Rush Limbaugh's talk show in this new medium, or for ABC to make Ted Koppel and Nightline available or even for companies to turn their training materials or sales support tutorials into podcasts. All of that content can be repurposed easily at nominal expense. But trying to turn a profit with original programming is something else.
"This technology is a feature, not a market. You better have something else to offer," says Ted Schadler, VP and principal analyst with Forrester Research, which predicts a more modest podcast audience of 12 million by 2010. "As far as making money, it's all just a big experiment right now." Schadler divides the market into two distinct parts: a sort of radio TiVo for media companies, and audio blogging for hobbyists, who can record their own radio shows at home with just a microphone, PC, some free podcasting software, and a mixer.
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