Your rationale is correct, I think, but the specifics are somewhat different.
This is about web standards and both Apple's and Microsoft's continuing refusal to adhere to open standards.
Specifically this is about HTML5 and the codec used with it to serve video and audio. Both Apple and Microsoft are going with H.264, which of course is "standard" but also will require paid licensing through a company called MPEG LA, an intellectual property firm that exists for no other reason than to
extort acquire licensing fees for media content distribution. Both Adobe and Apple have signed on to their licensing agreement as has Microsoft.
More specifically, this is a shot across the bow of Firefox directly and the Theora codec indirectly, the latter of which MPEG LA, MS representatives, and Steve Jobs assert is "encumbered" with IP violations. More generally, it's an attack on open source and open standards as a whole and gives insight into Apple's plan for the future of the PC world as detailed
in this article.
This started with an
open letter to Steve Jobs regarding his reasoning for not including Flash support. This resulted in a response from Mr. Jobs (text of response included at previous link) that was, at best, intellectually dishonest in a manner Orwell would have appreciated and at worst a veiled threat against open standards. As with many things of this nature, Jobs's comments have a ring of truth, but they remain hypocritical. Jobs is correct in criticizing Flash as a closed standard, but his solution is merely to offer a different closed standard, one that presumably fits with his world view and that he and his business partners can better control.
Several responses to Mr. Jobs have resulted, examples
here, and
here.
Subsequently, Microsoft has announce that in version 9 of their Internet Explorer browser, they will support the H.264 codec within HTML5 and nothing else, meaning the browser wars are heating up yet again.
There is also this statement from Monty Montgomery speaking on behalf of the company behind Theora and OGG Vorbis:
"Thomson Multimedia made their first veiled patent threats against Vorbis almost ten years ago. MPEG-LA has been rumbling for the past few years. Maybe this time it will actually come to something, but it hasn't yet. I'll get worried when the lawyers advise me to; i.e., not yet.
The MPEG-LA has insinuated for some time that it is impossible to build any video codec without infringing on at least some of their patents. That is, they assert they have a monopoly on all digital video compression technology, period, and it is illegal to even attempt to compete with them. Of course, they've been careful not to say quite exactly that.
If Jobs's email is genuine, this is a powerful public gaffe ('All video codecs are covered by patents.') He'd be confirming MPEG's assertion in plain language anyone can understand. It would only strengthen the pushback against software patents and add to Apple's increasing PR mess. Macbooks and iPads may be pretty sweet, but creative individuals don't really like to give their business to jackbooted thugs."
The upshot of all this is that websites that offer streaming media, which are becoming the backbone of various profit models for Internet business and of course are the sole reason for the existence of sites like Youtube, are going to have to make some difficult choices. HTML5 was supposed to free us from the need for reliance on proprietary codecs, but the manner in which it is being implemented has broken that false promise.
This is no less than a battle over the future of computing and information exchange over the Internet. Certain companies want to maintain a high-profit monopoly, and you'll notice that in none of their commentary on these issues is the matter of customer satisfaction given any genuine consideration. This is about their profit motive and their quest for control. They will dictate what you can see, read, or hear. Screw the rest of us.
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