Ok, all of you DFA maniacs...

[janx]

What do you think the odds are of Dean's getting DNC chair?

[DFLforever]

1. I don't understand how to do the odds thing

but I would say he has a 35-40% chance of getting it and a 60-65% chance of not. Based on intuition only. I have no inside track.

[elshiva]

2. Do Not Know either

pray that he will become chair.

[mandyky]

3. At this point I'd say 50% chance

If sandbagging by the DLC and others start, then his chances go down.

[DFLforever]

6. That's why I said 35-40%

You can bank on DLC and other powerful opposition.

[RogueTrooper]

4. I think they are very good

I have a feeling that Simon and Donnie would both be quite happy with background jobs in the DNC; and I have a feeling that their campaigns are designed to raise their profile.

I think Roemer is less the "anti-Dean" than he is an attempted powergrab by our Congressional and Senate caucuses. If he is the anti-dean then the anti-dean forces are screwed.

as for the rest...

:boring:

[MadAsHellNewYorker]

5. I my dream world, 100%

In reality, I think this will be a bitter fight. As it seems the world really works, Dean will ultimately not get the position: a backroom deal will give it to someone else (A more "status-quo" candidate, further cementing the decimation of the Democratic Party).

But I am a DREAMER! DEAN for DNC Chair!

[RetroLounge]

7. Pretty good, I hope

It's what we need...

RL

[NoPasaran]

8. I think his chances are good

He's been testing the waters for the last month or so. I do not think that he would have made the decision to run without believing he had the votes to win.

[janx]

9. Right--I remember that posted at the blog some months ago.

He did not want to run and lose; he was afraid it would disappoint DFA members too much.

[ImADeanDem]

14. My thoughts exactly

I'm sure he's not a shoo-in, but I don't think he would have announced if he wasn't fairly certain he had the votes. Of course, I guess we now have to see how effective the "Stop Dean" machine will be this time around. But I am feeling pretty hopeful!

[PassingFair]

10. Changes daily!

Yesterday at noon, I would have bet he had a 75% chance at it.
After Chris Heinz's little push for Rosenberg here, I'm afraid that they think we'll let ourselves be force-fed the party's choice again.
I wanted to make it clear through him that money and shoe leather will be poured down the drain by the dems if they do not understand that first, WE NEED OUR PARTY BACK!
That said, today, I feel we have a 50/50 chance.

[janx]

11. I feel the same way

for the same reasons.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

12. I'd Say About 50/50

It does appear pretty clear that Rosenberg is being set up as the Dean alternative, and that the party insiders are all starting to line up behind him. I think they went with Rosenberg after the dirt on Roemer started coming out, and they bailed from that sinking ship.

We could do a lot worse than having to choose between Dean and Rosenberg, IMO. Rosenberg is my second choice, in fact. But I think Dean is the best choice for DNC Chair right now.

Some have said Dean will be handcuffed in that position, that the DNC Committee will rein him in and make him tow the party line no matter what. In response, I say that I can't imagine Dean being forced to do anything, by anyone. Methinks the DNC Committee will be in for a BIG surprise if that's what they're thinking.

Which is exactly why the insiders don't want to see Dean win.

DTH

[janx]

13. Very good assessment, DTH. I agree with everything

you say here.