I wonder what percentage of US GDP is woo.

[Silent3]

Would the economy be significantly hurt (even more than it's already hurting) if suddenly no one would buy homeopathic remedies, if no one paid someone else to align their chakras, if books about indigo children and past lives languished in remainders sales?

In my own town, without even trying to seek them out, I'm aware of a number of businesses that are either all about woo (like the "Holistic Health Center"), or at least partly supported by woo (any major bookstore has a lot of woo on the shelves).

If you include religion as a form of woo, and think about the jobs of ministers, rabbis, imams, and priests, the rent paid on at least some of the facilities used (think strip-mall "Bible Church"), and the sometimes good charitable work done by some churches that many people depend on, the economic tentacles of woo go even deeper into the economy.

And as long as I'm just idly wondering about wooish things aloud, I wonder if a bad economy favors or disfavors woo. How much woo is supported by desperation, and how much woo (at least paid-for, profitable woo) is supported by the self-indulgence of people with more money than sense?

[salvorhardin]

1. You're forgetting another major sector of woo

Economics and economists. :D

Actually, I'd say a lot of business leaders use, and consume woo. Think of all the pop psych self-help books out there telling you can be a better manager by incorporating more sports metaphors.

That's the thing though. Woo isn't just the paranormal and/or supernatural. Unevidenced belief drives the economy and PR firms get rich trying to exploit unevidenced belief.

[Silent3]

2. In many cases woo probably hurts the economy

"Think of all the pop psych self-help books out there telling you can be a better manager by incorporating more sports metaphors."

It's very easy for me to imagine that many of the people who were riding so high for so long in the financial world we all about "making opportunity happen", "believing in themselves", "envisioning success", thinking that their own force of will and dedication to success was far more important than the messy details of actual financial transactions they were conducting. Doubt, after all, is for losers.

On the consumer side, how many people got in over their heads on their mortgages because buying that McMansion was an act of proving to themselves their own belief in their ability to succeed, an act of faith rather than an act based on sound financial planning?

[salvorhardin]

3. Oh I agree

I think the net effect of woo on the economy has to be negative. Hard to tell though. People do things for no good reason, or sometimes for very bad reasons, and sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. Look at the entire breakfast cereal market. Pretty much all founded on woo. Same thing with Welch's Grape Juice. Well, an offshoot of the Temperance Movement to be honest -- not quite woo. But Robert Welch Jr. did go on to form the John Birch Society -- 100% conspiracy theory woo and a big component of the New Right that coalesced around the Goldwater campaign.

[Nevernose]

4. I've heard the number 100 billion floated

And that's not counting books, religion, et cetera.

Of course, I also have no source for that number (just my word), nor any evidence for that number, so "100 billion" is in and of itself woo.

I'd be willing to bet that small-scale woo thrives in a poor economy, while expensive woo thrives in a robust economy. For instance, I'll bet electric Amish fireplaces are selling quite well right now, as are vitamins instead of doctors, while the five grand spiritual dolphin retreats in Sedona are suffering (if you've seen Penn and Teller's Bullshit, you know what I'm talking about).

[lizerdbits]

7. There was an article recently

mentioning Whole Foods Market and their grocery sales were down since they're more expensive but supplement sales were up. Not surprising especially for the uninsured. My copay is $25, but when I've seen specialists that didn't take my insurance it was about $200 (though a GP may be less). So from that perspective, if one believes supplement claims and isn't familiar with their lax regulation, one can pay maybe $100 for a doctor or $25 for a supplement. Just hope you have properly self diagnosed (and your choice of supplement isn't tainted with anything) so you don't wind up in the ER later with something more serious and thousands of dollars worth of bills.

[bluedawg12]

14. That was my thought too, that a lousy economy might favor

some alternative treatments and supplements, as they may appear less expensive.

Of course, if people feel better then it is worth it, otherwise, it can get costly woo'ing one's way back to health.

[uriel1972]

5. I wonder how much could be made

if religions had to pay their taxes on everything but their 'charitable' works All that land, rent, business profits etc must be a pretty penny.

[onager]

6. Google "Robert Citron..."

For a giant one-time Woo Expenditure. Specifically, the biggest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Citron was Treasurer (IIRC) of Orange County, CA. With help from mail-order astrologers and psychics, he invested the county's money on Wall Street using his secret, failure-free formula.

At the end of the day, it wasn't much of a secret--he just bet that interest rates would keep going down. When they started going up in 1994, the game was over.

In pure financial terms of bond interest etc., the citizens of Orange County will be paying for that mistake until 2027. The actual costs are incalculable in terms of schools and hospitals not built or improved, slashed social services, etc.

Bonus Cinematic Woo-In-Action: two of my favorite truth-based movies are Owning Mahowny and Rogue Trader. Because they make me feel smart.

Mahowny was the Canadian banker who embezzled money to gamble in Atlantic City and Vegas. The rogue trader was Nick Leeson. He single-handedly caused the failure of the venerable Barings Bank when he ran its Hong Kong futures trading desk (into the ground).

Both used the theory: "When you are losing money, you can recover if you just keep doubling the amount you bet."

Yep, assuming you don't run out of money first. Which is likely, since a casino or the futures market has a lot more money than you do.

Woo thinking at its finest.

[bluedawg12]

15. That's hilarious about doubling down when you are losing.

I think this has to do with human nature and not wanting to lose. It may also be related to a show on the History Channel a few years ago about these guys who made out like bandits at Vegas casino’s until they were busted.

They kept referring to the law of large numbers. The implication was if you play often enough you are bound to win but there was one other feature to this saga. All of the guys were from MIT and math wizards and they were able to count the cards in the deck and keep track of them in blackjack. That was not allowed, they were caught and banned from Vegas.

Yes, I suppose the law of large numbers works on a casino wide basis, say if every 5,000 pulls on a slot pays off a bonus, you may or may not be the 5,000th slot puller.
But on an individual level it would be very costly to reach the law of large numbers.


Speaking of the law of large numbers here is a definition and here is a woo shill saying the opposite of what it means.

http://www.answers.com/topic/law-of-large-numbers

In statistical terms, a rule that assumes that as the number of samples increases, the average of these samples is likely to reach the mean of the whole population. When relating this concept to finance, it suggests that as a company grows, its chances of sustaining a large percentage in growth diminish. This is because as a company continues to expand, it must grow more and more just to maintain a constant percentage of growth.

Investopedia Says:
As an example, assume that company X has a market capitalization of $400 billion and company Y has a market capitalization of $5 billion. In order for company X to grow by 50%, it must increase its market capitalization by $200 billion, while company Y would only have to increase its market capitalization by $2.5 billion. The law of large numbers suggests that it is much more likely that company Y will be able to expand by 50% than company X.

......... woo woo.....

http://www.nightingale.com/prod_detail~product~Law_Large_Numbers.aspx

About The Law of Large Numbers
There is a magnificent law, discovered almost three centuries ago, that holds the key to your success and happiness today. When applied correctly, this law is an antidote to fear, feelings of helplessness, lack of control, and inconsistent achievement. Yet, despite its great relevance to your life, it is very possible you have never heard of this law. It's called the law of large numbers. This law was first publicly made known by Jacob Bernoulli, a noted Swiss mathematician, in the early 1700s. The law states, that "In any chance event, when the event happens repeatedly, the actual results will tend to be the calculated, or planned, results." In essence, this means that repeated actions, over time, will, almost without exception, produce the results we seek.

:rofl:

[cosmik debris]

8. Is the Lottery woo?

I've always believed it was.

The belief that you can overcome 17 billion to one odds is certainly wooish.

So how many states have lotteries, and how many billions pass through those lotteries?

And how does it help society to tax people who are bad at math?

[salvorhardin]

9. According to New York State...

Lottery revenues were $7.548 BILLION in 2008. Out of which they paid $3.97 billion in prizes, $1.016 billion in operating and other expenses, and $2.56 billion went to fund education in NYS.
Source: http://www.nylottery.org/ny/nyStore/cgi-bin/ProdSubEV_Cat_333653_SubCat_337630_NavRoot_305.htm

Now, of the 18 million people living in NYS, let's assume only a very conservative 40% are working adults paying income taxes* or 7.2 million people. That means you could just increase income taxes roughly $1050 per capita and rake in the same $7.6 billion dollars. Of course in real life, that tax increase would be on a graduated scale, and you'd want to increase taxation on corporations too, so many people would see their taxes go up very little.

So for what would be, to many, a pittance of a tax increase, NYS could spend almost three times as much on education as they can by financing that spending with the lottery. Or they could use the nearly $5 billion in operating expenses they'd save to lower property tax rates which would probably be better for the economy because people would have more to spend locally.

Yet marginal tax increases are unpopular and the lottery is enormously popular. Yep. Seems like woo to me.

*I'm not sure where to find this info on the web.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

10. Aside from the Keynesian multiplier effect, woo is economic and social parasitism

The purchase of health woo encourages its further sale and advertising, and the targeting of yet more vulnerable and/or gullible people.

There are documented cases of health woo leading to deaths that could have been prevented by intervention of evidence-based medicine. Early deaths in economic terms are expressed in the removal of productive labour power out of the economy.

Depressive economic effects on the individual are especially felt when money they cannot afford to lose/spend is spent on health woo, psychics and the such because the individual is in a desperate situation and is looking for a miracle out her/his predicament.

[WhollyHeretic]

11. We're spending a couple of trillion on financial woo right now

This whole wall street and banking debacle has been based on pure woo. People buying insanely overpriced houses or more house than they could afford. The companies pushed these with glee.

edit: trillion not million.

[Silent3]

13. There's more to woo than bad decision making

Woo is a particular subcategory of faulty reasoning. That said, going back to what I said in post #2 of this thread, it is likely that wooish thinking, along with greed, recklessness, and poor math skills, was a contributing factor.

[WhollyHeretic]

16. I know it's more than bad decision making. I was being facetious, though just slightly.

The economic issues I referred to lack the mystical aspect but they are irrational beliefs with little to no grounding in reality.

[bluedawg12]

17. There were many woo-ish lies, like stock woo-ing.

They sold the public on the infinite growth potential of the stock market. 13% annual returns!!!11!
Of course they never said the full truth, that would be 13% if you had been invested in the market since 1929 and rode out all the slumps and were alive long enough to care as an octagenrian. Also, all of the original Dow companies are now either gone or off the Dow. That should have been a clue too.

Stock market woo-warning and check out the graph at the link below, accompanying text below,too.



Robert Schiller's plot of the S&P Composite Real Price Index, Earnings, Dividends, and Interest Rates, from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed.<12> In the preface to this edition, Shiller warns, "The stock market has not come down to historical levels: the price-earnings ratio as I define it in this book is still, at this writing <2005>, in the mid-20s, far higher than the historical average. . . . People still place too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a belief that paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes." - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market#The_behavior_of_the_stock_market



edit: spacing

[GoneOffShore]

12. Galbraith said - Economists make astrologers look respectable.