FBI profiling = cold reading

[lazarus]

Found this article by Malcolm Gladwell. Very interesting breakdown of the history and mythology of FBI profiling. We of course see the same stuff with psychics and astrologers and other woos.

They had been at it for almost six hours. The best minds in the F.B.I. had given the Wichita detectives a blueprint for their investigation. Look for an American male with a possible connection to the military. His I.Q. will be above 105. He will like to masturbate, and will be aloof and selfish in bed. He will drive a decent car. He will be a "now" person. He won't be comfortable with women. But he may have women friends. He will be a lone wolf. But he will be able to function in social settings. He won't be unmemorable. But he will be unknowable. He will be either never married, divorced, or married, and if he was or is married his wife will be younger or older. He may or may not live in a rental, and might be lower class, upper lower class, lower middle class or middle class. And he will be crazy like a fox, as opposed to being mental. If you're keeping score, that's a Jacques Statement, two Barnum Statements, four Rainbow Ruses, a Good Chance Guess, two predictions that aren't really predictions because they could never be verified—and nothing even close to the salient fact that BTK was a pillar of his community, the president of his church and the married father of two.

http://www.gladwell.com/2007/2007_11_12_a_profile.html

[salvorhardin]

1. Holy cow

I had no idea it was that bad. And the police fell for statements like "He will be either never married, divorced, or married" and "if he was or is married his wife will be younger or older" that each include 100% of the population? Well, technically they left out "separated" and "exactly the same age" as options, so not quite 100%, but still...

[lazarus]

2. yeah, I was stunned

I thought there was something scientific or at least demonstrating some good research behind this.

[Jim__]

6. I doubt it's that bad.

The written paragraph is Gladwell's, not an actual, completed, profile. While it includes selected information from a 6 hour conversation, it leaves out other, pertinent, information and the article does not specifically state whether or not the conversation actually resulted in a final, agreed upon, profile.

For instance, He will be either never married, divorced, or married, and if he was or is married his wife will be younger or older.

But even in Gladwell's description of the conversation, the details are not that general. First, this is a conversation with 3 different profilers present. So, He will be either never married, divorced, or married. From the actual conversation, this comes from 2 different profilers:

It was Walker's turn: BTK had never engaged in any sexual penetration. That suggested to him someone with an "inadequate, immature sexual history." He would have a "lone-wolf type of personality. ...

...

Douglas followed his lead. "The women he's been with are either many years younger, very naïve, or much older and depend on him as their meal ticket," he ventured. ...

At this point, the insights began piling on. Douglas said he'd been thinking that BTK was married. But now maybe he was thinking he was divorced.

There is a big difference between saying his wife will be either younger or older, and saying the women he's been with have been either many years younger, very naïve, or much older and depend on him as their meal ticket.

The part about him being either never married (one profiler's implicit opinion - apparently at the beginning of the conversation) or married or divorced (another profiler's opinions that were given serially, with one apparently replacing the other). In short, Gladwell is implying that any opinion expressed during the conversation remained a steadfast part of the profile at the end of the conversation. But, he doesn't explicitly state this.

Gladwell describes a 6 hour conversation and implies this is the typical profiling procedure. I'm not sure I accept that. He is a good writer. But I really doubt that experienced police officers are going to take seriously, a profile that describes a suspect as either married, unmarried, or divorced.

[Warpy]

3. I'd read part of the profile before and wondered why those guys

were getting paid the big bucks. Any serial killer who isn't a total mental case is likely hiding behind the church and the flag and that's where they needed to look first.

These want to be the last guys anybody ever questions so they're always propping open the church door and my goodness, they're invariably wearing flag pins and other patriotic kitsch.

They usually have a great deal of surface charm but don't allow anyone to get under the surface, something that's enough for most acquaintances.

Nurses meet all types. Maybe the FBI should fire their profilers and hire a few old nurses who have learned to see right through people.

[GoneOffShore]

4. I remember reading the article and having an ironic chuckle

Gladwell is such a good writer.

[onager]

5. USA! USA! Almost as good as the old Soviet state police...

When they were chasing the horrendous serial killer Andrei Chikatilo, the "Butcher of Rostov."

I saw a documentary about that case over the weekend, and the Russian "profiling" sounds eerily like those FBI profiles of BTK.

The Russian cops/KGB spent years looking for a young, unmarried, anti-social loner to fit their profiles.

What they DIDN'T look for was a respectably employed Communist Party member with a wife and children. IOW, Chikatilo.

MSNBC (IIRC) recently ran a documentary about BTK. One of the Wichita cops made an interesting observation about Dennis Rader. The cop said he should have moved to Los Angeles or New York, where he would have gotten the attention he craved.

Instead he was stuck in Flyover Country, and the cop guessed that was why Rader spent years taunting the local police and media. e.g, after one murder, Rader himself called 911 and gave them the address of his victim. He did almost everything possible to call attention to himself, short of walking into a police station and confessing.

[Orrex]

7. Back before HBO put out much good programming of its own...

they produced a film called Citizen X, with an utterly fantastic cast. I've only seen it twice, but it's excellent.

Not sure how true-to-life it is, and it shows a favorable use of profiling. Though in the film it is extensive, detailed, and specific, rather than "the killer is a man up to six feet tall or more..." Not sure if this portrayal is accurate, either, but it made for good watching! It's Max von Sydow, for Bergman's sake!

[onager]

8. One of my favorites!

I found the Citizen X DVD on sale at Fry's, and bought it immediately.

Have to agree with all your statements. It showed "profiling" as the long, hard slog it is in real life, not the near-psychic garbage usually peddled in true-crime stories.

Fantastic cast! Stephen Rea, Joss Ackland, Donald Sutherland.

And the great British actor John Wood, who has played many a Russian heavy, going way back to Nicholas & Alexandra in 1971.

Wood was also in the HBO production of Rasputin, which is worth watching. But maybe I just like it because it included a nod to skeptics. In one scene, the Tsar's doctor notes: "I have dissected many bodies, but I have never encountered a soul."