US Less Dominant But So WhatBy Joan Johnson Freese Wednesday, November 25th, 2009 10:43 am
Posted in Commentary, International, Policy
The best summary of that argument came from Stephen Daggett, sober and thoughtful defense analyst at the Congressional Research Service: “We are in the midst of a shift away from American military predominance towards something different,” Daggett said, “we’re still for several years clearly going to be technologically predominant in military capabilities. How long we’ll have the ability to do all of the above, to project power in every kind, ground forces, maritime forces, air forces, I don’t know, but it’s eroding slowly over time.”
While most military analysts watch China closely and never forget the always ambitious Russians, few have been willing to tell Congress or anyone else that what the Chinese might call the US hegemony is on the wane. Such an essential critique invites a closer look and requires debate, so we contacted a range of strategic and China analysts to get their views. The first commentary is from Joan Johnson-Freese, chair of the Naval War College’s National Security Decision Making program and a top scholar on China’s space program, and Tom Nichols, professor at the Naval War College and a fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. They argue that, while US power is in decline, there’s no need to panic. We heard similar arguments after the fall of Saigon and everyone shook their heads over those iconic photos of Americans scrambling aboard choppers at the American embassy. Here’s their commentary:
Here we go again.
America, we are told, is losing its strategic dominance, and that the balance of power is shifting from the Western hemisphere (home to the wealthiest, most technologically advanced military alliance in all of human history) to the East, a hemisphere that manages to combine advanced intercontinental ballistic nuclear weaponry with the basically inability to deliver food and clean water to tens, even hundreds, of millions of human beings. It is a familiar story: Our technological achievements are about to be eclipsed, and our military forces–already mired down in a sideshow in Central Asia–will be dwarfed by the shining new militaries of the East. All that is missing is some Soviet Politburo functionary confidently declaring that “the correlation of forces has shifted away from America’s favor” while standing in front of a television reporting the fall of Saigon.
To paraphrase an exasperated Henry Kissinger from those dark days: “What in the name of God is strategic dominance, and what do you do with it?”
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http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/11/25/us-less-dominant-but-so-what/?wh=wh