DoD Buzz: What to Watch in 2010

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What to Watch in 2010
By Colin Clark Thursday, December 31st, 2009 12:04 pm
Posted in Air, Land, Naval, Policy, Rumors, Space

The defense world can be incredibly frustrating to cover. For the most part there is relatively little real change from year to year except in factors beyond the military’s control. So the military tends to adopt a worst case approach to the world and try to come up with solutions that fit a wide range of problems. That creates its own snafus, since systems like FCS or Future Imagery Architecture end up costing way too much and doing few things well. The military’s greatest successes are usually found in developing systems that do one or two things really well — think the Jeep, the Abrams tank, the boomer fleet, the A-​​10 Warthog.

With that in mind, we humbly offer a few events and trends to watch over the next two years, since one year is far too short in the defense world, as any budget weenie can tell you. What to watch: Gates on his way out the door; the November elections; the struggle in Af-​​Pak; the intelligence wars.

First, Defense Secretary Robert Gates will probably leave. The rumors have been that he would leave just before the next budget is announced, allowing his successor the freedom to focus on operations and not get lambasted by Congress for what is sure to be a fairly painful budget proposal. Of course, there were rumors rampant several times that that Rumsfeld fellow was on his way out — including from the National Security Council — and they didn’t come to fruitiion for years…

One source with years of experience in the Pentagon noted that the president has much to thank Gates for. “Gates shows no immediate signs of leaving, and the still-​​skeletal leadership in both the DoD and the services continues to struggle. The prospect of significant Congressional losses for the President’s party in November poses a new risk to an early Gates departure — the risk that Republicans will reclaim leadership of the national security issue. A Gates departure will likely to filled with a figure more closely identified with the President (e.g. Jack Reed). A half measure such as Chuck Hagel won’t work. The President’s budget and defense program/​policies will be trashed on the Hill without Gates. Obama may go to Gates with a tin cup and a tambourine begging him to stay on, at least through November.”

If Gates does leave, expect his signature focus on immediate operational needs — not strategic systems — to remain intact. A few factors make this almost inevitable. First, we must stabilize Afghanistan and Pakistan enough that we can drawdown both our financial and human financial commitments to them. That means lots of MATVs, Reapers, ammunition, and various ISR platforms. It also means reset costs will remain high, so there will be little budgetary wiggle room for new systems such as the KC-​​X tanker or long-​​range bomber. They may get initial funding, but the focus will remain on the tools to fight with today.


Rest of article and a funny discussion at: http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/12/31/what-to-watch-in-2010/