Sounds like a tie tonight

[Andrea]

What do all of you think that means? I think it's just one more step toward a brokered convention.

[rodbailey]

1. Yes,

this is all getting very interesting. From what some were saying on MSNBC last evening, the next round of contests might favor Obama a bit more than Clinton, which would just tie the thing up even more than it is now. From numbers I've seen this morning, it looks like maybe Hillary has about 50-100 more delegates committed to her at this point than Barack has. That's not much in this race. So, if he closes that gap some in the next round (or moves ahead by a bit), the primaries later on, into the spring, will simply carry on the split/tie between the two. With the uncommitteds and some committed to Edwards (still) that might send Hillary and Barack into the convention with fewer delegates (each) than needed to win on the first ballot. Some of the super delegates will be a wild card in that. BUT, and here's the really big question for all of us Goreniacs, will anyone at the convention want to turn to Gore as a compromise candidate after each of the front-runners has built up a strong following and spent over $100 million each to get where they are. Something tells me some huge deal would have to be part of anything that brought an "outsider" in to settle the issue, and I guess I don't see at this point what that deal might be. On the other hand, I don't see either Barack or Hillary simply folding his/her tent and going quietly into the night. So, bottom-line, I'm not sure I can fathom how this thing might play out, unless there's a real turn-around in the voting patterns we have seen so far as the later primaries unfold.

Hope someone else out there might have more insight than that so we can see how to get Gore into the mix.

[rosesaylavee]

2. Any report seen about Edward votes?

I am thinking that the votes for Edwards took away from Obama... something I had been fearing for a brokered convention. Haven't looked at GDP yet. Looked in here first before I head off to work. :)

[Andrea]

3. I don't think he picked up any delegates

He got 10% in OK and 5% in AZ, all the rest were less. Unless he had a concentration in certain districts, he won't pcik up any.

[Andrea]

4. On NPR and BBC this morning

I heard two different Dem strategists saying they don't think it will be decided until the convention. Howard Dean said he thought it would be settled sometime in April or May, but he would be unwise to say it would go to the convention, considering his position.

Once it gets to the convention with neith one winning, we then have to consider the superdelegates. Someone on TV last night was pointing out that if it got decided by the superdelegates instead of the people, there would be a lot of anger in the party.

I know what you are saying Rod about neither of them wanting to give up and walk away after all the time and $ they invested. But, I'm still hopeful that this virtual tie will somehow get Gore in. But, I do think he would have been more likely to get in if their were three candidates and none had a majority. I think that because each one would have less to lay their claims of legitimacy on.

So I'm not sure what to expect, but it is interesting.

[rosesaylavee]

5. I am trying not to freak out

about another possible Clinton administration. Am hoping that it would not be as dire as I'm currently thinking it may be. Trying to stay positive. Will vote for her if she is our nominee but really hope that will not be the case.

[Andrea]

6. Don't worry about a Clinton admin

If she's the nominee, McCain will win. She is unelectable according to all the recent polls I've heard. Same with Obama. It's a brokered convention with a new nominee (Gore, I hope) or it's McCain. If either of them get the nomination, you better make sure your passport is up to date.

[rodbailey]

7. Actually,

I'm not so sure McCain can win. I think a lot of the right-wing crazies will simply stay home on election day if he is the nominee. Their passion against him seems deep and unforgiving. In fact I've heard more than one of them say it would be better to have a Dem. in the White House than a pretend Rep. like McCain (Rush and Lora Ingraham I think have both said that sort of thing). But, I do think Obama would have a much easier time against him than Clinton. Gore, of course, would blow him out of the water.

With respect to the super-delegates deciding this thing in a way that the popular vote (totaled for all the primaries, for instance) didn't reflect, yes, I think there would be major problems for the party. The same issue, however, might prevail if some started trying to "draft" Gore at the convention. I'm just not sure how the general public would react to that, but I worry a bit. The bottom line (hope-wise) then might be to have either Hillary or Barack go to the convention with a clear plurality of committed delegates so that the super delegates wouldn't end up going against the wishes expressed in the primaries. I know here in my Cong. District there is now an effort (since my district went for Obama, but our congresswoman - Louise Slaughter - has declared for Hillary) to put pressure on our Representative to swing to the side that the primary vote reflected. We'll see how that plays out. I'm guessing there may be some other super delegates faced with a similar situation around the country.

[rosesaylavee]

8. Coulter said she would

vote for Clinton before she voted for McCain. Yikes.

[Andrea]

9. I hope you're right about McCain not winning

And with regard to the super-delegates and the scenario at the convention, I think it is really hard to guess how it will go.

[rodbailey]

10. There were some comments on that

in an interview Obama apparently had this AM. He noted that he hoped the super delegates wouldn't go against whoever got the most delegates after the primaries. Sounds like that is going to be a critical issue, especially because some of these folks may feel beholden to the Clintons from the days Bill was Pres.

[rosesaylavee]

11. We just may need an incredible UNITY candidate after all.

Just hope it doesn't tear the party apart in the process.

[rodbailey]

12. One further comment about the Edwards delegates;

based on what someone on the news said yesterday about Romney's delegates and why he suspended his candidacy, rather than ending it, is that he gets to hold onto his delegates until the convention if he wants. So, as I understand it, Edwards did the same thing, i.e., he suspended his candidacy. That means he still controls those delegates and any more he might pick up in states where his name is still on the ballot. I don't recall how many delegates he had, but with a 50 - 50 split between Barack and Hillary, his delegates might play some role at the convention.

[Andrea]

13. that's my understanding, too

And he is still on the ballot in most states.

[AZ Criminal JD]

14. He only has 26 delegates

So the split would have to be extremely close for them to have any voice.

[Mabus]

15. I was a delegate in 2004

One of the things that was going on in Boston was the push for us non-Kerry delegates (I was a Dean delegate) to get in line. They wanted it to be unanimous vote for Kerry on the first ballot. Unfortunately, the DNC didn't think to start that push until late on the afternoon that Kerry was to be nominated. I didn't think it was cool because I ran as a Dean delegate and wanted to let people who voted for me know that I kept my word to represent them and their voice at the convention. I ran into a Kucinich delegate that was just as pissed off as I was at the last minute push to give it to Kerry by unanimous acclamation.

In retrospect, I sold out. Dean released us and I gave my floor credentials to my alternate. She was running for office and I wanted her to be able to say she was there when Kerry was nominated. My husband and I headed out to a party being hosted by the Kucinich campaign and attended by other disgruntled delegates. I like to remember 2004 as the year I didn't vote for Kerry before I voted for him.