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The average age across all seasons (and within each season) is 30-something. Overall, it's just over 33.
The median age is 30. That means roughly half of all Survivors are below 30, and half are above 30. So, technically, the older tribe would be anyone not between 18 and 29.
By the way, can you guess what the single most common age is?
(For all these calculations, I've dropped All Stars, since it was a whole different sort of season.)
Here's something weird: For all seasons, there have been only three (Borneo, Australia, and Guatemala) in which the average age of the merge tribe was lower than the average age of the all survivors to start the season.
Thailand had the biggest jump; the merge tribe averaged 6.31 years older than the season as a whole.
I have no spoiler info, so this is all speculation:
I think the four tribe concept will last exactly 30 minutes. Maybe a full episode, but I doubt it. I think they'll have a competition for immunity, or reward. The team that comes in last is dissolved, like Saboga in All Stars. The team that comes in first gets first draft, 2nd and 3rd likewise. The person left over is the first one sent to Janu Island. (My new name for the season.)
I'm curious how the exiles will be sent to JI. Tribal council? Is it like double elimination? If you're voted out once, you go to JI, but if you come back and are voted out again you're eliminated? The season could go forever!
In the first Survivor ever, done in Scandinavia, IIRC, they had something similar. When the second person got there, they would have a competition to stay in the game. The first person there was a Colby/Brian/Rob M. type who just rocked the challenges, so he stayed through most of the season. I dunno how they ended it. He may have simply rejoined once the merge happened.
It's also possible the whole Janu Island thing won't come into play until they go individual after the merge.
Another possibility: both losing tribes (assuming one is dissolved quickly) go to TC. The third place tribe votes someone out, the second place tribe votes someone to JI.
My favourite way of doing the tribes would be that everyone is on two tribes. You're old and male, or young and female, etc.
Then you could have challenges where people had to pick which of their tribes they wanted to help win, and in what order. It could get really bizarre, and would be an editing nightmare, so I'm sure we'll never see it. Just like my idea to have tribes reshuffled for every RC/IC cycle. That'd be a blast, if they had the right cast of people who would all set up secondary, tertiary, and quaternary alliances dependent on how the tribes are constituted for each TC. But instead we'd get a bunch of sheep trying to fly UTR way too far.
Y'all warn me if any actual spoilers start leaking out, so I can avoid them. I was pleased to find out Guatemala wasn't spoiled.
FWIW, I don't consider Probst/Burnett interviews or promos to be spoilers at all.
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