Survivor Ep 13 (spoilers, if you haven't seen it yet)

[Duer 157099]

WOW what an episode eh???

Stacy totally blew it during tribal council -- loose lips sink ships!! When Jeff asked her what she thought was going to happen, or if she was worried, she telegraphed way too much to Yaoman, and he picked up on it (of course he would). She totally sunk herself, but she also took down a few others with her.

It was a nice try, and took grandes huevos from Dreamz, but he wasn't really obligated to Yao on this vote, so he did what was in his best interest.

I'm glad Yao had the last laugh!! He totally deserves to win, and handing over that truck was a really good move, because you know the jury will take it into account when he's in the final two with Earl!

I like Earl too and wouldn't mind seeing him win, but this is now Yao's to lose. I expect there will be some real moral struggling next week when Earl has to decide whether to give Yao his idol.......

A really good episode!

[dr.strangelove]

1. Its final three this season

I think JEff said earlier that its another final three. So it will be Earl, Yao and someone. I suspect that even Earl will turn on Yao, though that would make me very sad. Yao really can not be beaten in teh finals, so they have to get rid of him. My wife said the same thing about Stacy's comments. I wonder if Yao would have used the idol if she had kept quiet.

[Duer 157099]

2. I tend to think he would not have used it

If the editing portrayed accurately the timing of the comments and facial reactions during tribal, then Yao clearly had a moment of revelation, and his hesitance after the vote indicated that he was still deliberating.

So, it's: Yao, Earl (+idol), Dreamz (+truck), Cassandra (-trust of Earl and Yao) and Boo

I think Cassandra goes home first. Yao will convince Earl to give him the idol as a gesture of good faith that there won't be another backstabbing attempt. If Yao and Earl play it really close to the vest, then the other 3 won't know that the 2nd idol has been found, and there's no way they would expect Yao to have another. So, those 3 will confidently vote for Yao, and Earl and Yao will vote out either Boo or Cassandra.

If Cassandra has immunity, Boo goes.
If Dreamz has immunity, Boo goes.
If Earl has immunity, Boo goes
If Yao has immunity, Earl keeps the idol and Boo goes.
If Boo has immunity, Cassandra goes.

Now... if one of the 3 is really conniving and manipulative, they *might* try to convince Yao that Earl knew about the plan to oust Yao, casting doubt in Yao's mind about Earl. But Yao seems to have good instincts about these sorts of things, so I doubt it would work.

If Earl turns on Yao, he might either gain or lose the respect of the jury, so it's quite a gamble. I'd predict that if it were between Earl and Boo, Boo would win, but otherwise Earl would win (against Dreamz or Cassandra). On the other hand, Earl vs. Yao is an almost certain lose for Earl, so it might be slightly less risky for him to take Yao out now.

We'll know soon enough.

[dr.strangelove]

3. I say

there is no way Earl gives up the idol. Boo or Dreamz gos frist, whichever does not have immunity. I suspect it will be Boo going. The last I.C. before the finals is usually not a physical one. The last one is almost always (other than outback) a long lasting endourance type. I think Earl wants Cassandra and Yao with him, and Yao wants Earl just because he trusts him.

My take, unless YAo is screwed over and voted out at the final four, he wins this thing. I suspect Dreamz will not cover his agreement, will win the Idol and not give it to Yao and Yao is out at four. I say its Boo first, then YAo, then the final three is Dreamz, Cassandra and Earl, and Earl wins.

You are right though, we'll know soon enough.

[Demit]

4. Wow. You called it. I really thought Dreamz would keep his word. How'd you know?

I was shocked. Of all the slimy characters that have been on Survivor, I think Dreamz takes the cake. I was so disgusted that it ruined Earl's win for me. I liked Earl, but I just couldn't stand watching that slimebucket up on the stage with him. And Cassandra, don't get me started. That's a major weakness in the Survivor game, how deadwood beats out worthy competitors because people want to take a weak sister along to make themselves look better. I think the game designers had better work on that.

I just don't understand what Dreamz thought he was getting in exchange for his integrity. He couldn't think he had a chance of winning, could he? Or was that another display of his sleaziness, that he was hoping for the sympathy vote after all. After all the protestations that he wasn't. I think Yau said it best: Dreamz is going to have to live with it for the rest of his life.

[Vinca]

5. Dreamz is a moron. Because of his circumstances, if he had

honored the deal, a great opportunity of some kind would have come his way that would truly change his life. Now he's known only as a rat and who wants to employ a rat? He'll get a real awakening when the taxes come due on the truck win and he didn't get the million to cover it. Earl was okay, but Yau was the real winner.

[dr.strangelove]

7. He'll get

over 100k in cash, enough to cover the taxes on the cash and the truck.

[dr.strangelove]

6. It was honestly a guess

They played it up so much, plus Dreamz turned on everyone. I think his biggest problem was not being able to convey his feelings well. I think he was trying to tell the three horsemen "suck it up because I outplayed you three". But it came off bad. I still think he played very well, but Earl played better. I am glad earl won. He was great. I would rather have seen yau win, but oh well.

[Duer 157099]

8. Me and you both. I was shocked and sickened

It was just so parallel to all of the disgusting political things we talk about every day here, wasn't it? "Oh, it's just a game. Oh, it's just business. Oh, it's just politics."

And so it goes.

By the end, I was very glad that Earl got it instead of Yau, because Yau folded too easily and let Dreamz off the hook waaaaaaaaay too easily, another distressing symptom of our society courtesy of BushCo.

And the one thing that NOBODY said but which desperately needed to be said, was that the only reason Dreamz was kept around so long, was not his stellar strategizing or because he played the game so well, but simply and only because he was needed at the final two to be the sleazeball that everyone knew he was and that nobody on the jury would ever vote for him! I hated all the back-patting to him for having played the game well, WTF??? Maybe he thought he cold pull a Richard Hatch, but Dreamz was no Hatch.

I at least expected Alex to have brought this out clearly.

Dreamz can live with his karma, I hope he enjoys it. Oh, and I especially he enjoys the lesson he taught his son.

Pathetic.

But Dr. Strangelove, you sure did nail it in that post above! To a T.