Survivor 20 Ep 11 "Jumping Ship"

[lazarus]

What the bloody hell is wrong with Colby? Give the clue back? And why wasn't Danielle kicked out of the game for laying hands on another player? That's absolutely against the rules. I call shenanigans.

Good on Jerri for winning her first ever IC. That took cold nerves.

I knew going into TC that Sandra was sticking with the Amanda vote. She's got a good sense of self-preservation. And if Russell and Parvati go to war, she's good for a few more rounds.

I have no idea what Candice is thinking. She's solid in a group of 5 with no sub-alliances. And somehow she believes that Russell has managed to survive more than 30 days without making any alliances, and now he wants to take her to F3? The lady is not thinking straight. It's a toss-up whether she or Sandra goes out at 6 now, and knowing Sandra's ability to read people and use that knowledge, Sandra may well weasel her way into F3 after all.

Edited to add: Sandra may have bought Candice as an ally, in a way. Right before TC she told Candice that she would vote however Candice wanted. She gave Candice power. That's something nobody else has done all game, except for Russell, a little bit. That may bear some fruit.

This could turn into a dream season for me, with no real alliances bigger than two people, and folks allying with each other in temporary partnerships just to survive the next Tribal Council. Probably won't happen, but a guy can dream.

This season is turning out to be great.

[dr.strangelove]

1. WHAT WHAT WHAT!!!

Wow, another GREAT episode is what is turning out to be my favorite season since Outback. This season was amazing.

I love that the show started with the Russell v. Parvati fight over keeping the second immunity idol a secret. this is going to break up that group of three. Russell's decision to keep the other one a secret pissed off Parv more than she will ever let on. It was wasted, just like the extra one was wasted last week. But both were smart plays because Russell SHOULD have been in trouble last night.

But Russell made his most brilliant move of the season by recognizing Sandra as a weak link and getting another vote to hamstring Sandra. I will never understand people like Tysen or Candace who play this game but have absolutely no idea how to do math when it comes to voting. Candace was third in a team of five once Sandra came on. that is the POWER position. She could have chosen the Saundra/Rupert team or tried to unify an Amanda/Colby team. Either way, if they turn the tides last night, she is going to the final three. She gets to the vote and might win $1 million. Instead, she chooses to join an existing five person alliance where she will be 5th or maybe even 6th. How does this possibly make sense to her.

I've got to tip my hat to the old man and lady, the Outback survivor's Colby and Jeri, who both played well enough last night to win a reward and an immunity. Colby has had a weak game this season, and I enjoyed seeing him win something. To be honest, I think he made a mistake in giving up on the clue. I'm not sure what the rules are about clues. I would have stood up, took the clue from Amanda, read it out loud and said, good luck to all of us.

I love that Russell finds the idol in seconds. Next time I think the clue will say, the idol is hidden in the shorts of a short bald contestant. I mean why bother hiding them anymore. Russell played the game as well as he ever has last night. He showed Candice the clue. He reeled her in with that move.

Sandra tried to move. She gave them the way to knock out Parv or Russell and retake control. But Candace was played by Russell to make a bad move, just as Tyson was before.

Tribal was great. Russell does not hide anything. Sandra is untrustworthy. What a thing to say in an open tribal. I love Courtney on the jury. Her faces are great. Overall, I am sorry to see Amanda go, but she got played twice by Parv this season, so it was her time to go.

I think Sandra is setting herself up to win now. As long as she goes in with no heroes, I think she gets a few hero votes. She will surely get Courtney's vote and I think she will get Rupert and Amanda's vote as long as no other heroes are there. She may even get Colby's vote if she plays him well. I think her best bet right no is to go in with Russell and Parv and let them split Coach, Danielle, JT and Jeri and Saundra collect the rest. If that girl is not eliminated soon, she is going to win. Parv and Russell will make a huge mistake in focusing on each other in the next week or two and not gettign out the people that can win at jury. Sandra is setting herself up to win.

I think we will see Russell keep the alliance together for one more week to take out a hero, probably colby. Once he is out, then he can flip on Danielle and Parv. they have to see this coming, and will flip on him. I can;t wait to see who wins. and if they do this and let Sandra go around behind the scenes locking up jury votes, the two of them are going to watch her collect another million dollars.

Laz is right, this season is turning out to be great.

[romana]

2. That was great

Man, that idol showdown was the strangest thing ever. I felt uncomfortable watching the whole thing. Danielle came across as creepy and aggressive, Amanda came off as creepy and desperate, and Colby came off as creepy and disengaged (and enjoying the cat fight a little too much there for a second). I don't know what the resolution to that scene was, but they probably should have just read the clue out loud and been done wih it. Odd scene, great tv.

Candace sealed her fate-she's no rocket surgeon, and that explains why she's been the odd person out all along anyway. Sandra could really win this. I think she made a good move with Candace, Russell, and Colby last night. If she can fan the flames of Russell vs. Parv she's got this thing. Divide and conquer.

[Phentex]

3. Yes, I agree about the idol showdown...

I can't figure out why Amanda didn't just READ it out loud on the spot. Who cares if Danielle found it in the bowl?!

[miyazaki]

4. Ol' Russ overplayed his hand eh.

But he's still survivin'. And 'thousand yard stare Amanda', wrestling for the clue!
For me she was the one who came off as the goon in that one.
Great season!

[lazarus]

5. further thoughts on watching it again

I hate to say it, but Rupert was actually playing the game this episode, for the first time this season.

Russ did need to play the idol, as Candice apparently never told him they were switching to Parv. I believe Candice wanted to flush out the idol. She's still Candunce to me, though, for flipping in the first place.

The previews indicate trouble in paradise for Russ/Parv/Horsey, so that's good news if it happens.

[dr.strangelove]

6. If Parv, Russell and Danielle go after each other

I hope the heroes do somethign with Saundra and Jeri. I'd hate to see them pagonged.

[lpbk2713]

7. I saw a preview of the next Survivor last night on CBS.

Two Castaways will be eliminated next time. This should be interesting.

[dr.strangelove]

8. Get Out

Really? I had not heard that. That will be awesome. A double eviction always shakes things up. I am hoping the heroes and Sandra can figure out how to keep Russell and Parv at each others' throats long enough to get rid of one of them.
Right now its 2 on 2 on 2 with 2 I can;t place.
I figures its Parv/Danielle, Russell/Candace and Rupert/colby, with Jerri and Saundra either together or each available to join another group. If Russell and Parv spent time trying to oust each other, maybe Jerri and Saundra will join with the hero boys and shake up the game. I am LOVING this season. Its so hard to predict, but once its aired, it makes sense.
Right now, as long and Jerri or Candace don't win, I'll be okay.

[lazarus]

9. it was inevitable

with 20 people. Same episode last season, they did it IC-TC-IC-TC.

I don't see Jerri making another big move, unless things really go pear-shaped for that alliance, which I'm not sure is going to happen. The promo monkeys have played with us before.

I agree with the Parv/Danielle and Russell/Candice splits, although I think Candice may have a bit more loyalty to Sandra now that Russ has lost his HII (for now, of course). Jerri will go with whichever dyad she feels most comfortable. Rupert will be sad and disappointed in everyone, and Colby gave up a long time ago.

Our only hope for real fun lies with my beloved Sandra. :D I can easily see a Danielle/Parvati/Sandra/Jerri alliance forming to take out the strays. In a secret scene I've only read about, Danielle apparently approached Sandra about that very thing before TC last week.

BTW, Probst has a blog over on EW.com. In the latest, he says they're fundamentally changing the way they play the HII, citing the "Russell Factor". IMO, all they had to do was quit making them so easy to find, and put them back on Exile Island. There have been, what, 7 idols played the last two seasons? That's stupid.

[dr.strangelove]

10. Thats just dumb

The Russell factor. Now I don't like him. I tip my hat to him for finding them so easily, but come on, just hide them in a difficult spot. Also, make the clues a bit tougher.

Sandra needs to make her move this week. If two are going home, at least one of the Russell Parv group needs to go, or at least Candace and Danielle so both Parv and Russell will both be weakened.

Its amazing to me that someone like Sandra is still in the game. Parv and Russell both made a HUGE mistake in not getting rid of her. She has no true alliance and she is still never considered as an evictee. I don;t get it. Didn't they watch her win Pearl Islands. She has made a science out of get me through one week at a time until its the end. She was soo good at final tribal in Pearl Islands that she convinced me to vote for her.

The best part of her is that she is not the physically dominat Tom or JT, not the strategic Russell or Parv, not the coat tail rider like Vecepia or Natalie. She is like Cirie, the pure brains competitor. She ain't physical and she does not openly scheme. She has never been the leader nor had others following her. Yet here she is, in a position of power, and she is still playing the game right. If there is justice, she will win this year, but I fear its Parv or Russell, which would be great TV, but less exciting for me.

[lazarus]

11. I just listened

to Rob Cesternino's podcast from a week ago, with Richard Hatch. Richard loves Sandra's game, which made me even more happy.

Keeping her will, I hope, turn out to have been a huge mistake.

[romana]

12. The Russell Facto

I think Russell going all the way to final three. He's a great goat. Besides, won't it be great to watch him throw another "I'm the greatest player ever" tantrum when he gets zero votes from the jury! :D He's so busy strategizing and backstabbing that he totally neglects his social game.

Sandra's game has been pretty good, I agree. She's not exactly flying under the radar, but she's managed to do some maneuvering behind the scenes effectively. She really is playing a thinking game and it's fun to watch. As I've said, I think she's a very disciplined player--she does as much as she can to make sure her fate isn't left up entirely to chance. She's making far fewer enemies than the other villains are, which will help her at the end.

I think it's Russell, Parv, and Sandra to the final three. I think Rupert and possibly Colby or Jerri go this week. Sandra will get their votes in the end because even though she may vote for them in tribal, it'll be clear she didn't orchestrate their departure.

The thing is, if Russell would play his game just a little bit less arrogantly and not make it clear he has nothing but contempt for everyone else in the game, I think he'd win on sheer respect. Lie just a little less, be a tiny bit less arrogant, and I think he'd have it. But he seems incapable of reigning in his superiority complex. I think he must be a sad, insecure little man.

[lazarus]

13. agree completely

I'll give Russell credit for actively playing the game, something too few people are doing (Colby!). But he seems to have forgotten or never learned that this is a social game, first and foremost. He could, indeed, win if he simply acted nice to people.

Heck, Amanda only spent about 3 days on a tribe with him, barely interacted with him, and the first thing she did when she got to Loser Lodge was complain about how bad a person he is.

It is possible that the Russell/Parvati split this week will lead to his ouster, though. There is a secret scene on the CBS website showing Danielle approaching Sandra about a Sandra/Parvati/Danielle/Jerri alliance, which I could easily see.

[dr.strangelove]

14. I don;t know if Saundra wants to brign PArv to the final 3

Sandra's only real chance of losing is Parv. I'd want her out. she can crush anyone else there. Hopefully she sees that. I'd hate to have her go to the finals with Parv and lose. I am cheering for Sandra from here on out. (Though sad little Colby will always hold a place in my heart).

[lazarus]

15. Sandra was

the only one this season besides Tom to state that a winner can only beat another winner. If Parvati has bought into that as well, that could lead to an alliance. If they think the Troll also won his season, there's your F3.

On edit: I'm not sure Parvati beats Sandra. Yes, Parv had the bigger play with the double HII giveaway, but Parv spent more of the season with a dominant alliance, while Sandra has been scrambling to survive. If Sandra manages to make F3, that's an amazing story of survival that could garner her some votes. Plus, the Heroes would be likely to vote for her, since she offered to flip at the merge.

[romana]

16. More final three thoughts

Sandra never forgets the social game, and has made it a point to make as few enemies as possible. That said, I would still be nervous taking Parv to the finals, just because Parv's game has been equally as good as Sandra's if not better. Parv has put herself out there much more than Sandra has, and as a strategy that could work in her favor. She's is much more in your face than Sandra, who's whole approach is steady and stealthy. Right now, as it stands, I think Sandra has Colby, Rupert and Courtney's votes locked up. I honestly can't see any of them voting for anyone else unless something major happens (assuming Sandra makes it to the final three).

I'm so glad Sandra is back--she really is a delight to watch, and I wish we'd gotten to see more of her early on.

She can probably never play this game again, if she wins, however--she'll be voted out quickly. In fact, I'm sure she was invited back before this, and was smart to wait for the right time to make her return.

[lazarus]

17. she was invited for All Stars

and turned it down due to family reasons of some kind.

I think Courtney is going to be her ace in the hole. She's dominating Ponderosa, and could easily sway jurors to vote for Sandra. That said, I agree Parvati would be tough to beat.

[dr.strangelove]

19. She really gets it

She has played a different game this time, which is what made the season so great. She never played the coattails game, she never tried to push people around. she just locked up hero votes on the jury as she still picked them off, and she demonized her competition. If its Sandra Jeri and Danielle, she can talk up how Jeri did nothing and danielle is a coat tail rider. Imagine an older non-physical person being able to make the coattail argument to a young physical woman, who would have thought. If its her Russell and Parv, she wins with the hero votes. Unless she is dumb and takes Colby and Rupert with her, in which case I sadly think Rupert would win (I see him getting Candace, Russell, Coach, Amanda and JT's votes), she has this locked up if she gets to the jury. Of course Parv and Russell have to see this and vote her out. But if she is smart and keep them focused on each other, as sandra can do like no other, she will win this thing. I love her. She played the game differently that anyone else and won before.

[dr.strangelove]

18. She has some hero votes

Of the jurors right now if it was Parv v. Sandra, I suspect Sandra only gets Courtney and Amanda. PArv would get JT and probably Coach, who both would respect her game more than sandras. Unless Sandra can show coach that it was her who beat him, then I can see him flipping to her.

Of the other players, I think Russell, Candace and Danielle go to Parv, which if she gets Coach and JT, would be the 5 she needs. Of course one of them may be in the final 3 with her. Sandra would probably get Rupert and Colby, not sure about Jeri, who may feel some allegiance to Parv after that idol play saved her. Sandra needs to make sure that at least one of the sure thing PArv votes is in the finals with her and Parv to have a good shot. To be honest, the best shot for her remains Parv, Russell and Sandra. Parv and Russell would split Coach, JT, Candace, Jeri and Danielle. I think Sandra gets courtney, Colby, Amanda and Rupert in this situation. Could we have our first plurality winner? She could win with one less than half if Parv and Russell split the villains and Candace.

Parv and Russell should get her out now before she beats them. If she does not go home this week with the double eviction, the odds tilt her way. The more heroes they put on teh jury, the more votes she gets. They have to realize this.

Russell's best chance is to keep Parv and Jeri. Jeri will not get votes from anyone. He gets Coach and JT for sure, probably gets Colby and Candace too. Parv would get Courtney and Danielle for sure, probably sandra too. Rupert and Amanda decide the game then. I'm not sure amanda gives Parv another million.

Parv is in a tougher spot. She has a tough call. She can't let a hero go to the jury, but she needs Russell and a sure vote for russell there. Maybe her best bet is Russell and Candance. Then she gets Courtney, Sandra, Jeri and Danielle and probably gets at least one of Amanda, Colby and Rupert. I can;t see anyone voting for candace. this is WAY risky though.

I LOVE THIS SHOW!!! This is the best part. By the way, I am NEVER right about all this stuff. I just love to think it all out. I think I've predicted the winner at this point once.

[romana]

20. Sandra and immunity

Sandra needs to win that final immunity challenge to make sure she's in the final three. Otherwise, I think she'll be out. Her only hope, in that situation, is to convince Parv that she needs to go against another winner and a goat if she wants to win. Otherwise, the jury will give it to the non-winner who isn't Russell in the final three.

So Sandra needs that final immunity challenge to make certain she stays until the end.

[lazarus]

21. I disagree

(of course) that Russ gets Coach and JT. Courtney has been poisoning the jury against Russell since she got there. Heck, there's a punching bag at Loser Lodge that Coach named "Russell". Nobody on the jury so far likes him at all. I think he gets no votes (maybe one or two) no matter what the jury is.

I agree that this is a great season. I was worried that retreads would be a bad idea, but it's worked out nicely. Of the players left, Rupert and Candice are the only two who haven't appeared before a jury. That's amazing.

[dr.strangelove]

22. Really

I give Coach and JT more credit than to let Courtney poison them when voting happens. Imagine it all comes down to Russell's attitude when he told Rob that Courtney or Sandra had to go next right in front of them.

[romana]

23. Well

If JT continues to use JT logic, then he will vote for Russell. Why? Because Russell is southern and has a penis. In reality, however, JT should vote for Parv, who clearly bested him fair and square. JT *might* vote for Sandra because she'd be the only one left who didn't screw him over (at least blatantly).

It's hard to know who Coach will vote for, but my guess is he will vote for Parv, because he will admire her...game, yeah, her game. ^.O (and she has played a really good game).

Not sure how Amanda and Jeri will vote, to be honest.

Honestly, I can't think of a single person on the jury (or who might be on the jury) other than JT who might vote for Russell (and even that's very iffy). That is why Russell will go all the way to the end and not get a single vote. Russell is the perfect goat to take to final tribal.

[lazarus]

24. Coach was already against Russell

He named that punching bag the first day at Loser Lodge. It's not just Courtney, either. The first thing Amanda said to them all was how bad a person Russell is, and she barely interacted with him. JT is already showing signs of being against Russell as a person, feeling he totally misjudged him.

[dr.strangelove]

25. they really should lock the jury up in separate cages

Not let them talk. It sucks that the jury can talk about it before the very end.

[lazarus]

26. just another challenge, imo

It's been that way since the beginning, I imagine. So you have to really think about who you put on the jury, and in what order. Just adds another dimension to the game.