Survivor 20 Ep 12 "A Sinking Ship"

[lazarus]

Wow. Great episode.

Rupert and Colby finally decide to play the game. Welcome to the party, guys. Actually some good play, especially on Rupert's part. I don't know which of them came up with the idea to vote for Candice, but it was a good idea. When playing cards, if the only way to win is to assume your opponent doesn't have the queen of clubs, you have to play as if he doesn't have it, or quit. Same in Survivor. The only way for them to survive was if the Villains split the vote and voted for Candice, so they played it that way. Very good.

Sandra continues to win my heart. She found the HII! Although it worries me that she voted for Rupert instead of Danielle. That means she took Danielle and Parvati up on the offer of an alliance, and totally missed Russell's machinations. Worrying.

Russell played it very strange. Given Danielle's performance at TC, she had to go, so it turned out for the best, but I wonder at his motivation in the first place. He must have sniffed out the Sandra/Parvati/Danielle alliance somehow. I'm not surprised at Jerri's move, as Danielle made it crystal clear who the F3 were. Again, I'm worried Sandra didn't see that.

Edited to add, I really do want to give props to Jerri. I'll have to catch some of the secret scenes to be sure, but I have a feeling she made the decision to vote Danielle based on D's behaviour at TC. That makes two flips that changed the game up for Jerri. If she gets to F3, she needs to point that out to the Jury. OTOH, she looked out of her depth before the Candice vote, wondering why they were going to split. So not total props.

Good challenges, especially the second one. Sandra did well until the climbing portion. Those slider puzzles are simple, don't know why people have an issue with them.

For next week, it looks to be Rupert/Colby/Russell vs Sandra/Parvati/Jerri, although I'm not sure about Jerri. I just can't imagine Sandra would be that open about opposing Russell if she didn't think she has the numbers. She may be trying to draw the vote so she can play the HII and break the tie that way. Or there isn't a tie and she's trying to do it just to get out Russell. It'll be interesting.

By the way, if, at the beginning of the season, or even three weeks ago, I had said one of the key alliance will be Russell/Rupert/Colby, would you have believed me?

This is shaping up to be a great season, one of the best.

[dr.strangelove]

1. I LOVE THIS GAME

Laz, that was a GREAT episode. Its hard to believe it, but this season gets better every week. I should give up predicting what will happen. The variables this year are too hard to follow.

I echo your kudos to Rupert and Colby. Colby was smart to stand close by and listen to Jeri and Danielle talk about taking out Candace. Sometimes just quietly working and letting everyone think you have given up is the way to go. They essentially ignored him and let info get discussed too loud. As always, the most important thing in the game is information.

I think Colby suggested that they both vote for Candace to make it 5-3. It was a good move.

I was a little disappointed in Sandra. The only people that can beat her are heroes. She needs to get them out. I thought she would have had better control over Jeri. It is clear to me that Jeri flipped. she was going to go with the others and vote Rupert, but she flipped and voted for Danielle after that tribal. I don't think that she voted for Rupert instead of Danielle because she took Danielle and Parvati up on the offer of an alliance. she knows she will destroy Parv or Danielle in the finals. She will get most of the hero votes against anyone but Colby or Rupert. So she needs them out. She is playing this to win. She is thinking jury and its clear that Russel and Parv are not.

Russell did not play it very strange, he played it VERY BAD. He lost the game last night. I Think his only hope of winnign was to go in to the finals with Parv and Danielle. I don;t see the math going his way with any other threesome. But he was not thinking endgame. He was thinking Russell is in charge and has to show everyone that he is in charge. I suspect he still gets to the finals, but only because Saundra and Parv HAVE to vote off Colby and Rupert to have any chance at winning. But I don't see how he can win.

Jeri, I felt for you last night. You made a bad call out of anger. You got rid of Danielle because you found out that you were lied to and that you were expendable. You knew that Sandra was not in the alliance, but you thought you were. Worse then the comments that Danielle made about her and Parv being so close, which I thought was going to give Parv a heart attack, was the comment that Jeri was not in the final three alliance with Parv, Danielle and Russell. Frankly, Danielle gave Jeri the blueprint on how to make it further in the game, get rid of Danielle. Now Jeri is at worst final 4 and probably final 3 because Russell and Parv HAVE To realize they need to take each other and Jeri to the finals, because neither of them can beat Rupert, Colby or Saundra.

I suspect you are right about the Rupert/Colby/Russell v Sandra/Parvati/Jeri. I think Sandra will play the idol to break a tie and get Colby or Rupert out. She CAN NOT waste that idol to take out Russell. She will crush Russell in the finals. If its Rupert or Colby, they get JT, Amanda and each other's vote for sure. Probably Candace too. I'm sure Coach would go for one of them and if its Colby, I'm not sure about Jeri, she might vote for him.

Jeri, Parv, Russell and Saundra all need to oust both heroes and have the final four be them. Its their only chance to win. The hero boys will only be around if one of them win out ICs.

[lazarus]

5. I agree the Hero guys have to go

although, with both of them and Sandra in F3, Sandra has a real chance, because they will split the Hero jury votes. Plus, never underestimate the power of Courtney to sway votes to Sandra. That girl is running Ponderosa with Coach. Those videos are great.

Speaking of videos, Courtney, Coach, and JT have formed a band called the Dragonz. Here's their first music video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wk-DqvZNaxc

They are so performing at the Reunion.

I can't figure Jerri out. She appears to have thrown in with Russell, although I don't know if that's going to last now that Danielle is gone.

I'm now starting to think that Rupert and Colby are playing with Russell, and have already allied with Sandra/Jerri. That could be interesting, but I do think that you either have to take both of them to F3 (to split the vote) or neither of them. Just one would be a Very Bad Thing. They'd get 3 or 4 votes right off the bat, and only have to pick up 1 or 2 more.

I'm basing that theory on the fact that neither Parvati nor Sandra seems dumb enough to needlessly antagonize Russell without having the numbers. I'm hoping that's true. The idea of Russell getting slammed by people he's been mistreating (Rupert, Parvati) and disregarding(Sandra, Colby) for the whole game is just delicious.

On edit: (I always seem to have further thoughts) Sandra has a secret scene where she thinks Colby is playing the game by not doing well in challenges but working hard around camp. Why else would he take a dive in an IC when he's one of only two candidates to go? Parvati even said they have to get rid of Rupert because Colby's weak and can go anytime. If Colby suddenly goes on an IC run, it was planned all along. I doubt it, though. Had Rupert won, they'd have been focused on Colby. But Colby is the one who overheard the plan to split the vote to Candice by quietly hanging around camp. Probably just luck, though.

[lpbk2713]

2. One thing is pretty obvious to me.

Russell is not going to win this game. Not as long as there
is a jury vote to decide the winner. Every player hates him.
I'm glad Rupert called him on his "swear on my children" oath.

[Phentex]

6. That is exactly what my husband said!...

Russell can make the moves but he does it in a way that the jurors don't respect. They will not give him the million.

[Rosie1223]

3. Question for you Survivor Experts

Did Russell know the results of his previous Survivor before playing this one? Was this one completely taped before the results show from Russell's first game?

I ask because he is playing the game the same as last time -- systematically picking off everyone he sees as a threat. OK as a game strategy, terrible as a jury vote strategy. Would he have changed his game play if he knew he lost previously?

[lazarus]

4. He did not

The Finale of Samoa was broadcast about a week after filming ended on this season. I think he thinks he won it in Samoa, which is why he's playing the exact same way. If he thinks he lost, he probably thinks it was because of a bitter jury that didn't respect his game play, and all-stars will respect his game play, so he has no need of changing. Fool.

Something neat about this episode I didn't notice until someone pointed it out to me. This was the end of the CBS Reality Show All Star Curse. Every All Star season of a reality show CBS has broadcast has been won by a WTF Are They Doing There? player: Boogie in Big Brother, Eric/Danielle in TAR, Amber in Survivor: All-Stars, and ironically Parvati in Survivor: FvF. The two candidates this season were Candice and Danielle. Now that they're gone, Rupert and Jerri are the only two left who never made it to FTC, and both are valid legitimate All Stars.

[romana]

7. It's all about the jury

Yes, you want to stay in the game, but you want to do it in an intelligent way that doesn't make you too many enemies on the jury.

Russell just sent a person to the jury who, absolutely, will not vote for him if he is in the final three. You can't afford to throw votes away like that, and that's what he's consistently done and that's why he loses. I bet he doesn't get any votes in the finale. There is no game to respect here, other than to lie, cheat, and backstab people with no thought to the repercussions of your actions.

Rupert played the game this week, and Colby did too. Sort of. Colby just looks tired to me. He checked out a long time ago, IMO. I honestly laughed out loud when he made his comment about respecting his own game to Candace.

How I love my girl, Sandra! Not only did she find a hidden immunity idol, she found it with nobody being any wiser, and played Rupert's deception perfectly! She voted for Rupert because she knows Rupert and Colby need to go and this way she doesn't look like the architect of their demise. She's totally thinking jury strategy, and has been since before the merge. This is something Parv has sort of been thinking about, and Russell has completely ignored.