Survivor 21 Ep 13: "This Is Going To Hurt"

[lazarus]

Okay, at first I thought Dan and Jud were being complete idiots. And, really, not the smartest play, although there's something to be said for getting that crazy lady out of there without being seen as the betrayers. If one of them get to F3, they'll have Jane's vote over the core alliance of Chase/Sash/Holly.

And the previews show that that core 3 isn't very strong at all.

Chase has basically lied himself out of the million dollars. He's betrayed too many people for no real reason. Dumb game play again from a not very smart player.

And Jud is playing everyone, as I've thought all along. He's got a real shot at this thing, as he hasn't betrayed anyone, Na Onka is the only one on the jury who doesn't like him, and he's obviously been sandbagging the ICs.

Should be a fun finale Sunday night.

Oh, and that scene where Chase tells Jane they're going to vote her out? Awkward.......

[murielm99]

1. I've been saying this all along about Jud.

He's not stupid. I did not agree with you about Jane, though. I liked her.

I hope Chase goes soon.

[dr.strangelove]

2. Great Tribal

I freaking LOVE Jane. She is awesome. I don;t care that she whines, she plays balls to the wall. But when she was told that its her, it was maybe the most real moment survivor ever filmed. You could see her spirit just drop and then her anger rise up. It was perfect. Hats off to the crew for capturing it perfectly.

My call, Fabio wins out ICs and wins this thing. I never would have predicted this ending. I thought for sure Sash had it all under control before the quitters killed him. then I give him credit for picking the right group to join. He played chase and Holly well to convince them to drop Jane. Holly probably deserves to win the most, but there is no way they take her now. I say Sash and Holly go and we have the Dan, Fabio Chase final three. I call Fabio on it.

I am so looking frward to the finale.

[lazarus]

4. I guess Miss Integrity 2010

forgot about backstabbing Brenda a few eps ago. Can't stand that batty old hypocrite.

[Goblinmonger]

12. Not to mention her stealing fire to cook her fish

that she didn't want to share with everyone.

[lazarus]

13. also eggs

she was taking eggs regularly.

And she was stealing fish and eggs and feeding Chase on the side so he could win challenges and take her on the rewards.

[Rosie1223]

3. Chase is rapidly becoming the goat to take to the F3

because he will get no votes. I can only imagine what Jane has to say back at the Ponderosa.

[romana]

5. WTH

It's not Jeff's job to strategize for the players, so what the hell was that last night at the tribal council? If I'd been Holly, and gotten voted out, I'd have been seriously pissed about that. However, I think Dan and Jud did the right thing--they are all better off trying to get to the end without Jane there to muck things up with an IC win. Jud can hope he wins immunity to keep himself in, and Dan is no threat whatsoever to take to the final 3. I think Jud, Holly, and Sash have a real chance to win this thing if they make it to the finals.

Chase will make it to the final 3, but he will not win. He's made too many enemies, and Jane is going to talk pure poison about him at Ponderosa. He has played a really dumb game, and really should never have gotten this far.

That stunt putting out the fire was pure, vindictiveness on Jane's part. I lost what respect I had for her when she did that.

[Duer 157099]

6. I've been thinking that about Jeff, too. He talks too much.

He has influenced the game many times, just by how he asks certain questions during TC. It doesn't seem fair.

Also, during challenges, I see the same effect. By him yelling out who is doing what, he probably influences the outcome. Plus, during a puzzle, I just wish he would STFU, it's distracting.

I was gobsmacked by Jud and Dan voting Jane out. I suppose I can see the get-Jane's-vote angle, but even if they had kept her and voted her out later, her vitriol towards those others would not diminish.

I was pissed at Chase for not taking Jud to the reward. I truly hope Jud wins this whole thing, he's turned into one of those rare favorites who hasn't slimed himself all up by playing this game. And seeing how much he cared about his mom made me all choked up.

[Phentex]

8. I said "Shut up, Jeff!" to the tv...

he blathers so much during a challenge it's downright annoying!

I was hoping Jud won immunity just to see the others squirm.

[Stevenmarc]

7. That really pissed me off

If the dumb asses can't figure that out for themselves it's not really Jeff's place to manipulate the game.

[lazarus]

9. Upon further thought, it wasn't stupid at all

Preface: I am completely unspoiled. I am going out on a huge limb here, because I'm convinced Jud is playing a seriously deep game. He's basically doing the best job I've ever seen of making it to F5 without betraying anybody, without offending anybody (excepting the lunacy that is Na Onka), and without lying to anybody, while not really flying under the radar.

So here's the deal. As far as we know, the tie breaker when it's not F4 is the Purple Rock of Death. The way this works, according to the contract I read, is this: There's a revote with the two being voted for not voting. If, after this, it's still tied between the same two people, we go to the PRoD. Here's the catch, though. Those with immunity and those who were the original tied votes do not draw.

In this case, that means Jud (immunity), Chase (HII), Sash (HII), Holly (tied), and Jane (tied), would all be safe, and Dan is automatically out. That, or they go to fire making. If they do fire making, there's no telling who wins.

But here's why it wasn't a stupid decision to go ahead and vote for Jane, for Jud at least. Jud just got rid of one of his biggest competitors completely clean. He is sure she would win at F3. Everyone also is sure she had a strong chance of winning the likely endurance challenge at F4.

So he got rid of one of his biggest problems without getting his hands dirty. He didn't just get her vote, he got the vote of anyone she can sway while at Ponderosa. He also kept his game plan of not betraying anybody (which he'd have to break if he kept Jane, as he couldn't risk having her get in front of the jury).

Really, it worked out brilliantly for him. Plus, he had no chance of getting Holly voted out because Jane voted for Sash, so that wasn't happening in the first place.

My prediction is that either Holly or Jud goes next, followed by either Sash or Holly. If Jud can survive one more vote, he's golden, because the others don't realize what a threat he is in front of the jury.

Of course, he may get voted out next, and I'm completely wrong. :D But this was all driven by everyone's conviction that Jane was unbeatable in front of the jury. Once you understand that, it makes perfect sense.

Jud beats anyone who's left except Holly, and he may beat Holly because of something that didn't even make the show. In one of the secret scenes they show on CBS.com, Other Kelly revealed that, on the first day, the old La Flor tribe solemnly swore to vote for a young person to win. That's why I think the young people are carrying Dan along. They think they can win if they get into an F3 against Holly and Dan. I don't think it'll work, but it's going to make for some very interesting maneuvering the last two days.

This season got very good very fast, IMO.

[dr.strangelove]

10. Thats right

My wife and I were talking about that during the tribal. We came to the same conclusion. I suspect Fabio has to win out ICs to get to the finals, but he certainly is capable of doing that. I'm sure him and Sash know they have to get rid of Holly. I'm not sure Sash is really in the alliance. If Fabio wins immunity, it should be Holly to go. Everyone benefits from taking Dan to the finals. That all depends on whether Sash will turn on Holly right now. I'm not sold on that yet. If they vote out Dan, its a mistake on Sash's part, one that will cost him in the end. If Fabio loses the IC. he goes next. Sadly, I am left pulling for Fabio to win this thing.
What a bad season in terms of players. Not very exciting for my taste.

[lazarus]

11. the thing is

I'm not wholly convinced Jud has to win out. (BTW, Fabio is the stupidest nickname. Spicoli, people, Spicoli!) Things could turn on Holly quickly, then Jud gets Chase and Dan to vote out Sash at F3.