Survivor Episode 22-2 "You Own My Vote"

[lazarus]

I think Rob really screwed up last night. Way too early to be worried about Matt and Andrea, especially when you have to cannibalize your own alliance like that. Matt's a real threat to come out of RI later in the game, as well. So now you have Kristina and Andrea, krazee Philip, and Matt floating out there, instead of a strong six person alliance and Kristina.

On the plus side for Rob, the HII is gone. But now it'll be re-hidden.

Russell got pwned tonight. For the first time in the early game, people aren't scared of him. (Sandra and Parvati weren't scared of him, but Parv let him think he was in charge.) Ralph's leading the charge, but virtually the whole tribe is anti-Russell.

If I was on Russell's tribe, I'd be tempted to start hiding my own stuff and blaming Russell for it. :evilgrin: I'd also seriously consider throwing a challenge just to be rid of the troll, except that the troll doesn't seem to be doing the sabotage thing this go around. If he spends all his time off with his two lady friends, he's not disrupting camp life, so who cares?

I'm starting to think Redemption Island is going to be in two phases. First phase is pre-merge boots, with the winner back at the merge. Then the merge boots go, with the winner coming back at F5/F4, somewhere in there. Jeffrey keeps hinting that there'll be more than one returnee.

Early predictions, completely unspoiled: Russell and Rob both go out before the merge, but Rob comes back at the merge. Ralph emerges as the complete puppet master and wins. Ratings go up as people discover that this is actually a good season, especially compared to last season. :D Philip continues to bring the kray-kray.

Philip, btw, makes me sad. He has a family at home, and they're either mortified at his behaviour, or have bought into his delusions. Either option is a sad one. :(

[lazarus]

1. on second thought

I was reading an analysis by someone who has great insight into this game (a very good poster on another board), and I now see the Matt boot in a different light.

Phillip isn't a threat to do anything, with the way Rob is manipulating him. Kristina is an easy boot at any time. Matt and Andrea are real threats, because they've already formed a strong pair bond.

Yes, keeping them around prevents their becoming enemies in the short term, but they're going to become enemies eventually anyway. Keeping them around allows them to strengthen their bond even more, and potentially pull in another vote or two from Rob's core four alliance.

The only risk is that Rob's alliance will start to get froggy because he's shown a willingness to throw an ally overboard this early in the game, but those two were on the outer periphery of the alliance anyway, so it shouldn't be that hard to keep things together. If Rob can keep manipulating Phillip, he effectively has a five person alliance. He even has a chance to bring Andrea back into the fold (where will she go, after all?), and then he's right back to six.

Thing is, six is really unwieldy. It's nice for the first couple of boots, but after that, fractures appear quite quickly. I can only think of a couple of times a six person alliance held together the whole way (Palau, for one, although that was tribal rather alliance based). So trimming things down like this may work out for the best for Rob, after all.

[murielm99]

2. I wish Philip would put some pants on. n/t

[dr.strangelove]

3. Rob and russell, around for awhile

I enjoyed this episode. While I agree that Rob may have erred in letting go two physical threats early, I think he was right about Matt. Matt is not a dumb surfer dude, he is smart and set himself up in a twosome early. I think he just did not realize how much he was displaying his likability. I think his handshakes after the competition were genuine, which is why he is a HUGE threat to let stick around until the merge. Rob let everyone on that tribe know that its never too early to think end-game. It has cost others before to wait too long to start to play. Rob is playing from day 1.

The move to get the idol out was smart too. Let it get re-hidden now and let them all look for it. It takes the fear out of voting out kristina, who will go next.

I disagree that Russell got owned Laz. I think he is asserting his place exactly as he needs to. He has a core group and the other side is not really an alliance, its just a group that does not like him. Someone there will get pissed at another one. I suspect the one they will get pissed at is Ralph. Ralph may have let his inner dick out too much last night. If it was not directed at Russell, it would have turned me off a lot more. This notion that I can play but Russell can't is a turn off. I suspect some are getting annoyed at Ralph. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that he goes before Russell. I doubt either will go quickly as its best to take out Russell's girls before him. He is a strong player and I would keep him around.

I am curious about the Redemption Island workings too. I like your idea Laz. the pre-merge boot would be fun to watch but I don;t like the idea of someone coming back so late, like at F5/F4. I also think we will never get the russell rob version that they hoped for. Rob is no goin anywhere before the merge. I say he gets to the final 4-5, but goes before he gets a chance to face the jury, because who could really beat him.

I say Russell and Rob both make the merge, but Russell goes first and right after the merge. Rob isn't gonna be a fool and will engineer his ousting with those on his own tribe that want him gone. I would be shocked if Ralph emerges as a puppet master. He is kind of mean and played too aggressive in that fight with Russell. People are going to be turned off to him. I agree that Philip will bring the batshit crazy talk, hopefully for another week or two.

[lazarus]

4. aggressiveness re: Russell

I think Ralph's aggressiveness in his encounter with Russell was appropriate, as it was in response to Russell's aggressiveness and bullying behaviour. Remember, these are players who have watched Russell bully his way through two seasons, and most of them don't want that to happen again.

I don't see Ralph's acting that way with anyone else. It's not that Russell is playing that annoys the other tribemates, it's that he's playing the exact same way yet again.