Survivor 22 Ep 9 "The Buddy System"

[lazarus]

Wow, Rob is completely dominating the strategic part of this game.

I have to believe there was an exchange between Jeffrey and Rob regarding the "cult" comment, there was a weird edit there.

I'm not sure about telling SADD he's your F3 pick, but if anyone else gets wind of it, you can just say, "It's Phillip, how seriously are you going to take it?"

I'm surprised at how poorly Rob is doing in the challenges. I guess age has already caught up to him.

David isn't the puzzle master he claimed to be, apparently.

I have no idea how RI is going to finish up. There has to be one more double boot this season. I suppose they could leave someone on RI for an extra day or two, but I'm not sure how the editing will play out. There will for sure be a three way duel next week, probably witnessed by everybody. I think it would be even cooler if nobody witnessed it, and the returnee is a complete surprise.

Stealth R Us for the win, baby!

Edited to add: Elapsed Burgers was the name of my third album, when I experimented with prog-rock. :evilgrin:

[murielm99]

1. I don't like the three of them there on RI.

It gives them too much time together to plot against Rob.

So what happens? One goes back to the game, and two go to the jury? I wonder if Rob can win it all. He is building lots of resentment among the opposition tribe. Will they be able to put that aside and respect his game play, or will they continue to be angry if Rob goes to F3?

I think there has to be another double boot. It can't be next week. There has to be time for another nice reward challenge. And some of them must be getting hungry for some real food.

[lazarus]

3. Rewards

I don't think we'll get a reward challenge until (if?) RI is over, there's just not room for it.

I think there's a three way duel (triel? :D ) next week on RI. Not sure when the returnee comes back.

As for the jury and Zap, I think he's playing it as well as he can. Zap is clearly going to be giving him all the credit/blame for everything Ome does. I think the fact that he's not made any deals with any Zap is going to help him, as he hasn't stabbed any of them in the back.

I think we're in for long bit of Pagonging here. Nobody on Ome should flip or even consider having a Zap around for the late game.

[murielm99]

2. Did Ralph spell "Phillip" as "Philite," or am I remembering

incorrectly?

One thing has to be true: Ressell is laughing his ass off over what is happening to his old tribe.

[lazarus]

4. I believe so

Bless him.

Ressell will probably spend all his time at the Reunion claiming his "Russell seeds" at RI are why Zap lost, but it's nonsense. Zap lost because they didn't do as well in challenges, which Ressell wouldn't have helped at much.

[dr.strangelove]

5. Rob rocks

Rob is starting to get cocky and its going to cost him. He was at his best when he was respecting other players and trying to take out the better ones. When he turns into the Robfather he gets careless. In both All Stars and villains, he never got cocky, even when he and Amber were clearly walking away with it. I fear rob will get cut down, if only because of the way MB is editing this season.

I also agree that Jeff and Rob had to have a little bit more to talk about with the Cult exchange. The cut there was weird and Jeff would never let that look Rob gave go without comment. I think Rob idea to formalize the buddy system was brilliant. If lets them all think twice about turnign on them. Also, I like how he took Grant, who is clearly his biggest threat, and he paired Andrea and Phillip, who are probably each other's biggest block.

I think you are also right about age catching up to Rob. It sadly happens to us all.

Overall it was a boring episode and I think its going to be a pagonging.

Elapsed Burgers is a great name.

[murielm99]

6. I agree about Rob getting too cocky.

But I have never thought he would win it all. I still don't. The minute there is any opening or display of weakness on Rob's part, they will vote him out.

I thought age was catching up with him the last time he was on the show. Yes, it does catch up with all of us.

[lazarus]

7. I question the cockiness, though

it's all in the editing. Notice he's only "getting cocky" in confessionals. It could be that he's been making the same confessionals all along, and the editors are just now showing us this side of him.

The question then becomes, why? Is it to prepare us for his eventual downfall? Or (my theory) is it because this stage of the game is going to be boring, so they want to spice it up with a "villain"?

On the boring nature of the current Pagonging: This is where a lot of majority alliances have fallen apart. Props to Rob for coming up with a method to keep it together.

Note also the pairings. Rob is with his biggest alpha male rival, Grant. His chosen F2/F3 companion, Natalie, is with Ashley. His other F3 choice, Phillip, is with the biggest risk to flip, Andrea.

Not only does the buddy system prevent Zap from finding a way in to splinter Ome, the nature of the system prevents the bottom three of the alliance from teaming up to do anything stupid.

And it would be stupid to break the Ome alliance up before F6. Omes will be stabbed in the back, for sure. So you don't want to let a Zap get anywhere near F3, because they would pick up all the Zap jury votes and, potentially, any bitter Ome votes.

Rob is definitely safe until F6. Then he has three ICs to survive. He has a HII to get through one, so that leaves two. What I would do, were I Rob, is make sure the HII is used at F6 to put my chosen F3 in the majority, by booting either Grant or Andrea (preferably Grant, the immunity threat). Then take out the other two. Convince Phillip and Natalie there's no way the jury would give you the million, then make a great case at FTC.

That's the only route I can see to the win for him. Of course, he's better at this game than I can even pretend to be, so we'll see what he does.

[AtomicKitten]

8. Rob is the smartest guy on the island.

[MaineDem]

9. But annoying as hell

He's had enough experience on the show over the years to know it inside and out.

IMHO, if course. :-)

[lazarus]

10. I can see how he'd be annoying

but I just remember that he's usually smirking when he says something over the top. He's playing a character.

He's done reality tv enough to know what the editors are looking for, and he's giving it to them to help the show. This is his job, after all. :D

[AtomicKitten]

11. Rob definitely has some moves.

I think he also has a huge target on his back because of it. He's smooth and manipulative, but I was surprised when he said Philip was a good soldier and he intended to take him to the end to reward him for his loyalty. Philip is one crazy mo-fo, though, and I'd keep one eye open when sleeping. LOL.

[AtomicKitten]

12. He's pretty cool about it, though. Russell on the other hand was a colossal pain.

I think if the other tribe members ever get their collective shit together, Rob is gone in a heartbeat.

[lazarus]

13. here's the thing

For all the talk that Rob is now running a cult and the rest of Ometepe are sheep, ask yourself this:

If Andrea, for example, were planning to win, how would she do it, and what would she do differently than she's doing now?

I say she'd do exactly what she's doing now.

You don't want to let a Zap or Matt get within a whiff of FTC, so it's in all of Ome's best interest to pagong right now.

What all of them should be doing is very carefully trying to line up their chosen F3.

And here's the kicker. Many of them may well believe that Rob can't win at F3, because the one-timers are going to stick together and be reluctant to reward a four-timer. So they may be thinking of taking Rob as a goat.

If I was Ashley, for example, I've already had Ralph tell me he'd vote for me over Rob. Woot. Let's make sure Ralph is on the jury and Rob is sitting next to me.

This is part of what made Ralph and the rest of Zap such bad players, btw. That statement was utterly counterproductive. Tell them you will vote for Rob if he's not voted out before FTC. Basic Survivor. Adam and Parvati bought themselves an extra three days in Cook Islands by telling Yul they'd vote for him if Jonathon Penner was voted off next. Yul manipulated Aitu into voting off Penner and won the game by the narrowest of margins.

The Zaps don't know how to bargain with the (admittedly few) chips they have.