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"Every victory contains the seeds of defeat, every defeat the seeds of victory" Clearly the first part is true - the hubris of the second term is incredible. It could lead to rejection of RW and neo-cons for some time. (A danger is that McCain can be viewed as the one who stood up.)
The intense emotion of the 2004 election may expain the difference in treatment of Kerry vs Gore. One thing I noticed, but am not sure I can articulate is that whether in anger or support, there is much more intensity and connection to Kerry's campaign versus Gore's campaign. With some the anger is BECAUSE they had come to believe in Kerry and trusted him to win and immediately end everything bad that happened. When he didn't, they remind me of a 3 year old (I knew well) lashing out when we didn't take her to a promised show because it was cancelled due to snow. ("You said you would")
Gore's stolen win came more as a surprise. He had been neck and neck for the last several months of the campaign, but it seemed to be one of the least passionate elections of my lifetime. Many people never connected to Gore, so he is almost like a new candidate, but with the gravitas of having stood as a potential President. I seriously doubt that global warming is suddenly the biggest issue on people's minds. Gore has also spoken out against many Bush transgressions, but he really doesn't have a platform. I suspect that Gore is supported because, as Kerry was in 2004, they are placing him as the leader/father who can get rid of the bad guys. It is stunning how little some Gore supporters here really know about him.
I remember you writing over a year ago, that the key for Kerry is to be one of the five viable candidate entering 2007. He is certainly in that group. I have seen no poll where he has been below 4th - and only then with Gore in it. What is now a negative, the past intensity, can change to a positive for a subset of the group of people currently against him. There are memories of his debates and over time, Kerry should get credit for his perseverance.
The fact that we have seen many people become less negative here is very significant. I think some people may overstate their feelings on an anonymous board, because they can with no repercusions and they can't in real life. Having looked at many of the threads on the three year old DU, Kerry is far better thought of now than 3 years ago. I liked one comment where some one (not on the thread yesterday) said they still didn't want Kerry to run, but that the "Kerry fans" had convinced him/her that he was an excellent Senator and a good person. That is real progress. That is a person who after looking at the real humans running in 2008 and ruling them all out as the "DemMessiah", may decide an "excellent Senator and a good person", who they may remember with pride was an excellent debater, and who dealt with a devastating close defeat by picking himself up and working harder and who most importantly, has well crafted plans on every key issue is the best choice.
In the real world, here's a response I got after sending a relative - WWII vet, mostly Republican - a link to Kerry's last speech. (He voted for Kerry in 2004 - but it was an October decision.)
"It is a fine speech and a specific plan for moving forward in a complex dangerous situation that does not yield to the force we are attempting to apply. My heart breaks for the troops who are bravely paying for this with their young blood. {b] It is more than anyone in Washington has ever done in appealing for the support to the American people in the past twelve years. It is a plan that will have to withstand vicious debate in the coming months, but it is a plan. That is more than I have heard emerging from Washington itself, and so I am paying attention. The debate should be revealing. Thank you for sending."
I still need to respond - and am undecided how to explain that the Democrats (lead by Clinton - who he has less respect for than I do) have not given Kerry any support as a leader - and that this will not likely be the Democratic plan. It does show that this plan and likely his Iraq plan are things that people desperate for leadership will respond to. This relative is a swing voter, Jewish, in his 80s, and a vet. (I know this person would not vote for Hillary (too Clinton) or Edwards (too slick and insubstantial). He was impressed with Gore's film, but I'm not sure he would vote for him.)
In 2008, it may come down to substance. Hillary, who is very intelligent, will have a platform - likely highly approved by focus groups - but it will be new, rather than appearing to be the logical culmination of her positions since 2000 and reflecting her whole life. Edwards will have a new stump speech that will likely have echoes from his 2004 one - which is good. Neither will compare to Kerry, where these Faneuil Hall speeches are all detailed forward leading plans on key issues that draw on his past. I also wonder if Kerry's consistent calls for civility and bipartisanship will also play a part. The next leader must heal the wounds here and abroad. Kerry may be the one best suited to doing that.
Thought of this way, Kerry may be getting the right amount of exposure - enough so the key points do get out as his ideas and so they sound familliar, but they will, as a group, still seem fresh. (I hope this last one has elements repeated by Democrats this fall - I did hear Dean echo Kerry's comments on Afghanistan. I don't see any leadership from the Clintons, who are still addressing the IWR vote - an issue that will not drive 2006.)
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