A crucial time for saving Lebanon's fragile democracy

[Mass]

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/01/04/a_crucial_time_for_saving_lebanons_fragile_democracy/

A crucial time for saving Lebanon's fragile democracy

By John F. Kerry | January 4, 2007

EVERYWHERE I traveled throughout the Middle East this winter, the feeling was inescapable that the region could explode at any time. The threat of three simultaneous civil wars that King Abdullah of Jordan spoke of is real, and perhaps the most imminent danger -- in Lebanon -- is the least understood.

Lost in the shadows of Iraq, the struggle to save the fragile democracy born of the Cedar Revolution has reached a moment of truth. If America does not act now, this key front in the broader struggle between moderates and extremists for the future of the Arab world will be lost -- and the consequences will long be felt throughout the region. The radicals' ambitions for overthrow move from Prime Minister Fouad Siniora in Lebanon to President Mahmound Abbas in Ramallah to Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki in Iraq. They are determined to achieve a clean sweep.

...

Yet today, the forces of radicalism are doing a far better job than the moderates in making the most basic connections with restive populations. In Lebanon, Iran has seized the opportunity to win over the population by channeling some $500 million in reconstruction funds through Hezbollah -- over twice as much as we have. In fact, Iran is doing more in rebuilding Lebanon than Washington is doing in rebuilding New Orleans.

We must change this dynamic by dramatically increasing economic assistance -- and pressing others in the international community to do the same -- and ensuring that Lebanese see that they can count on their elected leaders. And we must redouble our efforts to strengthen the Lebanese military, which has earned the trust of the people but lacks the strength to confront Hezbollah.

...

This comprehensive approach, similar to the one used with North Korea and Iran, must include the full participation of moderate Arab countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia -- which, like Syria, have largely Sunni populations -- as well as Turkey. There is no guarantee that this approach will save Lebanon and turn Syria into a positive force in the region -- but the current policy only guarantees more of the same.

Lebanon teeters on the brink of disaster -- but its leaders refuse to surrender. As Amine Gemayel, the former president of Lebanon, said in explaining why he is running to replace his son in Parliament, "We keep going. We keep fighting. We keep struggling." The question is whether we will be a real partner in this struggle.

Excellent, with one caveat. There are extremism on both sides and this seems to target only one side.

[Mass]

1. OT - The Jerusalem Post had a piece yesterday about ...

the importance of Jewish people in the next congress. Inside this article, there was a line suggesting that Kerry could try to get the head of the SubCommittee for the Middle East, which, if ranking members becaome chairs, would go to Barbara Boxer. Did anybody read something about it elsewhere or is it just pure imagination from them?

[TayTay]

6. I tend to doubt this very much

I think Sen. Kerry will get that Chairmanship of the East Asian and Pacific Affairs committee. I can't see Joe Biden giving this committee to a possible '08 rival, nor should he. (Sen. Kerry is not currently a member of that sub-committee. Ahm, it is a real stretch to see him suddenly become chairman. Not saying it couldn't happen, but that would be a plan altering thing, if it happened. Deals like that are done to offer someone something to get them to change plans. Ah, it could happen, but I doubt it.)

The East Asian and Pacific Affairs sub-committee is nothing to sneeze at. These are the countries that it has jurisdiction in dealing with:

- Australia
- Brunei
- Burma
- Cambodia
- China
- East Timor
- Fiji
- Indonesia
- Japan
- Kiribati
- Korea, North
- Korea, South
- Laos
- Malaysia
- Marshall Islands
- Micronesia
- Mongolia
- Nauru
- New Zealand
- Palau
- Papua New Guinea
- Philippines
- Samoa
- Singapore
- Solomon Islands
- Thailand
- Tonga
- Tuvalu
- Vanuatu
- Vietnam

Ahm, maybe it's me, but that is a damn good fit for Sen. Kerry. This is the website from the Department of State that discusses news and US froeign relations with countries in this region: http://www.state.gov/p/eap/ Ah, this is one of the hotspots in the world and a real and true challenge going forward. (Why would Kerry give this up? China, Japan? Those discussions about currency devaluation in China that are critical to the US future? All those issues that can be discussed about outsourcing, fair trade, etc, with the biggest economic forces coming onto the world stage today? Ah, I doubt Kerry would or should give that up.)

[wisteria]

2. Maybe he is saving the other side for another Op-Ed.

As far as the sub chairmanships, I haven't read about any changes in the assignments.

[beachmom]

3. Mass -- perhaps you can explain further. I plead ignorance on

extremism from the other side in Lebanon. I thought the people behind the Cedar Revolution were more moderate, secular and cosmopolitan. I always viewed Hezbollah as the troublemakers, although I do feel the Shi'ites should get proper representation in the parliament. There is more to the story?

[Mass]

5. I am talking about people like General Aoun, who are as extremists as

Hezbollah, and not surprisingly linked forces with Hezbollah during the last elections to oppose the Democratic government. It is possible that Kerry sees them as one only force, but this is too bad that he does not quote them.

I guess that this type of editorial splits me between two directions:

- the internationalist in me is happy that Kerry understands the importance of helping Lebanon and globally the whole Middle East get through this mess,

- the frustation I feel each time I see articles that subsums a leadership and its masses. The military leadership of Hezbollah is definitively trouble and, as any milice in any independant country, should be either integrated in the regular army or dissolved, and its head is a perfectly repugnant person. However, Hezbollah is a also a multitude of people who have been thrown there by the civil war and the wars that have divided the country. They represent a large part of the Assembly and people are drawn to them because they are currently the only force that helps people (as Kerry explains in this article). Just as in Ireland, the political and military part of the IRA were two different things, the political and military part of Hezbollah are not quite the same thing. I think that a political resolution of the crisis in Lebanon implies you have to integrate the political part while making clear the military side is perfectly unacceptable. All nuances that I am sure Kerry understands and supports, but that American politicians seems unwilling to voice.

[karynnj]

7. I think there is a limit to the amount of

complexity you can explain in an op-ed.

With Hezbollah and Hamas, he has in the past explained that they have provided basic services to people and this has given them both support and credibility. In both cases, he has seen it as crucial that the more moderate government has to be seen as a provider for these services.

To me, this implies both:
-that some people wanting to do good in their country have allied themselves with people whose entire (bad) agenda they don't agree with.
-many Hezbollah supporters are sucked in because they see the Hezzbollah people doing real things that make their lives more bearable.

I didn't take his editorial as saying all non-Hezzbollah supporters are good - but he identifies many that are worth supporting. (It reminds me of last January's comments on Blitzer from Israel where he spoke of the US having failed to help Abbas deliver basic services and he attributed Hamas' win with often doing that in the West Bank.)

I like what I think is Kerry's underlying concept that people act in what they PERCEIVE is their self-interest.

[TayTay]

4. Good editorial. There is limited time to act

as Sen. Kerry says. Lebanon is at a fragile point and needs elp in order to get through the present trouble. Hezbollah won a big victory this summer because they were the first Middle East power to go toe-to-toe with Israel and not be crushed in a war. They fought to a stand-still with them. I would like to see the US get behind some of the forces that are trying to keep Lebanon's fragile democracy in place and we should be sending aid to this vulnerable country. It would be a great move for the US. (So, of course, Bush won't do it.)

Great line, btw: In fact, Iran is doing more in rebuilding Lebanon than Washington is doing in rebuilding New Orleans. All too true and sad.

[karynnj]

8. This op-ed is now the new post on the Kerry blog

with some great links to Lebanese bloggers.

Mass, I saw it wasn't on DU-P, so I put it there with the link to the Kerry blog, so people can see the other stuff too.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3040419