Hearings this week in the Senate.

[TayTay]

You can get a quick schedule of all the hearings at www.capitalhearings.org

Except for this week, when they don't have SFRC listed. Not to worry. When you know a hearing is happening, but there is no C-Span coverage, go hear and click on the appropriate hearing room for the committee holding the hearing. You will get an audio feed, which is better than nothing.

[TayTay]

1. SFRC Hearing on Iraq: Military Response 1/17 9:30 am

The first one is Wed, Jan 17th at 9:30 am
You can pick up the webcast athttp://www.senate.gov/~foreign/ at 9:30 am.

Securing America’s Interests in Iraq:

The Remaining Options.
Military and Security Strategy

HEARING
before the

COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
UNITED STATES SENATE
ONE HUNDRED TENTH CONGRESS
FIRST SESSION
Thursday, January 18, 2007
Time: 9:30 AM
Place: 216 Hart Senate Office Building
Presiding: Senator Biden


Witnesses:
+General Joseph P. Hoar, USMC (Ret.)
Former Commander-in-Chief, US Central Command
Del Mar, CA

+General Barry McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
President, BR McCaffrey Associates LLC
Adjunct Professor of International Affairs
United States Military Academy
Arlington, VA

+Lt. General William E. Odom, USA (Ret.)
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Former Director of the National Security Agency
Washington, DC
+Additional Witnesses May Be Added…

**********************

The SFRC website has switched over the membership from the horrible 109th Rethug dominated committee to the really nice, and very sane Democratic-controlled list for the 110th Congress. George Allen's name has been expunged.

Sigh! I knew there was a reason to get out of bed this morning.

[TayTay]

5. Sen Kerry is there

He just made a small joke about NSA Stephen Hadley.

I can't cover all of this hearing. I have personal stuff today.

But this is good stuff. Military response to Iraq and what happens next.
This is the hearing we are listening to. (This should teach me not to list hearings when I am tired. Sigh!)

Securing America’s Interests in Iraq:

The Remaining Options.
Regional Diplomatic Strategy

HEARING
before the

COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
UNITED STATES SENATE
ONE HUNDRED TENTH CONGRESS
FIRST SESSION
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Time: 9:30 AM
Place: 216 Hart Senate Office Building
Presiding: Senator Biden


Witnesses:
+Dr. Vali R. Nasr
Professor of National Security Affairs
Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, CA

+The Honorable Richard Haass
President
Council on Foreign Relations
New York, NY

+The Honorable Dennis Ross
Counselor and Ziegler Distinguished Fellow
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Washington, DC

+Additional Witnesses May Be Added…

[karynnj]

6. Just turned it on -

[TayTay]

8. Whew! I have to leave soon

Can you summarize later? I have to take my son back to school and must leave around 11:00 am. I will transcript this tomorrow.

[karynnj]

9. sure - I'll try

(I can't get names of experts)
Expert to Hagel (Hamilton)?:
Pulling back to the border, away from Baghdad. Best may be an Iraq with civil conflict for years. Limit scale of civil war and keepin it from ging regional

Expert 2 - with strong accent
Current Iraq government working on a year old plan and current government can't work under it. Nobody wants chaos - but there is no discussion on what Iraq should be. Would outside countries be able to agree on amount of power for each faction. Won't get a political solution out of current plan (Bush's)

Dodd - Biden out - jokes that as acting chair he yields himself 1 1/2 hours


Dodd refers to his and Kerry's trip. Says that Assad wants a pluralistic secular society. New set of circumstances - not Saddam, not WMD. Need new debate new authorization.

Has trouble thinking of sitting with Iran leader because he is holocaust denier - who do we speak to there -
Head of national security (name?) would be good.

Focusing on President a mistake of media because it empowers him and that position doesn't hold power. Need policy to Iran not President.

Ross(?) agrees, but says we need to respond to the President's comments. Time issue - our options are becoming narrower. Need diplomacy now or choice will be living with nuclear Iran or attack(?)

Other expert - the Iraqi government has a fundamentally different agenda than us. No one in government seems to be going to national reconciliation - mentions Saddam's excecution and way it was done.

[karynnj]

10. I think Crocker is up now

Wants General Petrous. Biden said he is speaking to Levin because his committee has that juristiction and thinks it would be good to have him and the Sectretary of Defense before SFRC. Croker is blabbing away.

"No question that we created civil war" Says "we're allowing a muted civil war" "American used to solving problem" This guy has no clue - Contrasts all aout civil war vs what Bush wants to do. Questions how to get Iraqis to live up to their promises.

Richard Hasse - we would be fortunate to limit it to "muted civil war" Odds grow exponentially that it becomes a regional war. Don't think Sunni neighbors will stand for Shite dominance. Terrorist attacks. "Some people speak of things needing to get worse before they get better. In the middle east, it is often that thiings get worse before they get worser." Need to afford extremes - either smothering civil war or pulling the plug.

Nasr
Malechi government behavior is because after temple bombing - government saw reconciliation is possible. They are instead strenghening Shite position. Far more sectarian than what we are hearing. No shifts that suggest that the political mood can move to unity. We're caught in the middle. Their end came is not others.

Menendez up (what no Kerry - was he earlier??)

said that Rice rejected benchmarks and deadlines. Menendez says there is no sign of changing course on the part of the Iraqis.

Ross:
Never a consequence to failing - that situation is not intolerable to the Iraqis. Malechi's problem - shiites act as though they are vulnerable because of history - even though it's not true. Need to convince them that the "lid is going to come off" but not deadlines. Need to define success.

[karynnj]

11. Back - after gap due to phone call

Obama -

Ross -
Syria and Iraq should be included in regional summit - though they are spoilers - because you want to use them if possible.

Obama - what's on the table:
expert?
Need precise agenda or it will be unmanagable. (ie Iran may want to deal with Palestinians first.)
Nasr -
Want a solution everyone can live with - the direction we are going makes to harder because some see us backing what Saudia Arabia wants. Also goal has to be stablizing Iraq, not containing Iran.

[karynnj]

12. Kerry up - I missed some (another phone call)

Has very high praise for Nasr's book

Says we are missing boat on all

Nasr
Need regional frame work because there will be fallout all over the region. Iran is the big asset. Can't use just containment. (Shite) Other countries Sunni

Ideological fallout - both shiite and Sunni extremism that can spread.

Kerry
Need to resolve the fundamental stakes to prevent it from speading to region

Can we stop them
Hasse- Doesn't think the politics can be resolved
Kerry - leads to long term conflict
Hasse - yes sir
refers to Northern Ireland and the need for Iraqis to reach point to find compromise is better than fighting.
Ross - pessimistic, but we need to contain it. 15 year civil war leading to exhastion.

(this is very depressing - and I can't type fast enough to capture it well.)

Kerry - Biden and he have been advocating for summit for years. Shocking the SoS just now thinks we need to accelerate diplomacy. Tragic for the kids.

Nelson up
Frustration - bipartisan group issues report - administation ignores it - hurts the troops. Frustrating

[karynnj]

13. Casey up (another gap -)

Casey -
PA 3rd on list of death toll - traumatic impact on small towns. Know that this is about diplomacy and politics, mor ethan military.

Looking back 2 years, how would you grade diplomatis strategy-each of you
Hasse-
By 05, die was set and 2003 was critical before and after invasion. Paid price for isolationism esp w/ Iran and Syria. Dealing with the problem later is not like laying down French wine - they don't get better.
Nasr - people of the region speak of non-engagement. Think that means allies have no input as if the US thinks they have no insight or solution. Consequence of not dealing with real problems on the ground
Ross - complete non-engagement. No realistic goals. Syria policy: Speak loudly and carry a small stick.
Can't get a passing grade. Region sees us as not interested in their interests.

Casey - How is Dr Rice doing in the ME
Ross - make sure you have realistic goals and that you have to listen

Webb -
Advantage of being last has all the input of answers

Need to move to regional forum - salvation has to come from within, but need regional effort.

Asks why is the Palestinian problem important -
Administration looked at what Ross and Clinton did and decided to address problem of rogue states and that between Sharon and Arafat nothing could be done. Problem is not war/peace - but moving things in the right direction. We are seen as uninterested and it will be hard how to get out of it

In the Israel incursion into Lebanon, we didn't take advantage of when Saudi Arabia condemned Hezbollah - did we miss an openning?
Nasr- popularized Hezbollah on the Arab street.
Hasse - said that te US and Israel thought it could lead to weakening of Hezbollah. Timing counts for a lot. If the US had acted differently early in 2003, but can't go back.
Ross - in the middle east missing an opportunity makes you worse off than no even having it. The US should have stepped in with these Arab countries to mediate.

[karynnj]

14. Biden summing up

my brain has gone to sleep because he is just said theat he went to Catholic school and the nuns would make you write things multiple times as punishment - and he had to write ...... (I don't know what because my brain went to sleep)

Bush may not get 10 votes

Now speaking of elections, constitution, regions. If we all agree that surging etc is a strategy not a plan - how do we avoid the worst case a region civil war that imperils lost of our issues - without bringing in others - it's inevitable without the Sunnis getting oil revenues and the Shiites getting some area.


The Biden/Gelb plan made more sense a year ago than 3 months ago and now - but it may become the answer. and the reason - no one in the region likes it - but a solution would be bad if anyone really liked it. Maybe the Shiites will realize giving up some revenue and then they will get more land and more revenue ......(Maybe my brain needs to go back to sleep) HUH!

I think Bush's plan will go quickly and they will have a plan B. Imagine what happens in France, Germany with Arab population if there's a full blown civil war.

Leaving right away would be a disaster
Staying in a civil war is a disaster
Limiting the number of troops can't work

Biden wants to create a biopartisan plan - becuase that is all Bush will listen to (my comment: WHAT THE HELL WAS THE ISG!!!)

Hasse - need a debate in Iraq, as well as here. Question is Iraq reaching point of "ripeness" Are there things we can say and do. Only a small % of spoiler can mess stuff up and there are too many in Iraq.

If they aren't it raises difficult questions of limiting fallout and making the Iraqis get to theat point faster.

Biden - Bipartisan

Ross - how to reserve containment as an option
Biden - Committee mostly for regional effort or UN
Nasr - Both Shiites and Sunnis have too great an idea of what they can get - ned deflation of these expectations. Biden open to a plan. Need to mirror reality.

[europegirl4jfk]

15. I have to admit that I switched it off when Biden started to ramble at the end

I couldn't concentrate on this anymore. Thanks so much for summing up what everybody said! My Internet connection was very bad today. But it was a very interesting panel. And the questions from the senators were great too. There weren't many Republicans; they seem to have given up on it, or it's so frustrating for them that they can't bear it to hear the truth. Serves them well!

What was that comment about competition when Biden mistakenly passed over Kerry to go to Nelson first? Did you get that?

[karynnj]

16. I didn't get that - I am a really horrible typist and was interupted by

an unusual number of phone calls. I hope everyone takes my summaries as very iffy until Tay gets the transcript.

I figured that Kerry had stepped out - I think he had a competing committee. I suspect if he were there he would not have been shy getting Biden's attention.

Biden's summary should be required viewing - maybe 5 times in a row - for anyone supportting him.

[Mass]

17. A description of what happened in an article by AP

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/01/17/america/NA-POL-US-Obama-2008.php

"Is there something rare at this table among competitors?" a smiling Sen. Bill Nelson, a Democrat, remarked as he sat with Obama on his left and two other potential 2008 Democratic candidates — Sens. John Kerry of Massachusetts and Joe Biden of Delaware — on his right.
...


Biden, the committee chairman, could have been accused of trying to undercut his rivals. He forgot to call on Kerry and moved to cut off Obama when his allotted time was up.
...

I wonder if Chris Dodd should feel vexed because Biden tried to cut Kerry off twice already, tried to cut off Obama today, but let Dodd speak freely twice.

[karynnj]

18. How childish and pathetic

In contrast, at one point when Kerry spoke of an international summit - he crdited Biden and "others" as well as himself. Biden was smart enough in 2004 to recognize class.

This has to be the stupidest thing I have heard - since I listened to Biden's summary today - I never thought Catholic school and nuns would come up in a discussion on Iraq.

Though the situatio was far different - Biden needs to see the comments on when Kerry very graciously led the Jury he was on in Boston.

[TayTay]

19. Thanks! You did great!

This is depressing, but I recommend that everyone watch at least Sen. Kerry's portion of this hearing. The archived webcast is now up and you can get it by going to this sight:
http://www.senate.gov/~foreign/hearings/2007/hrg070117a.html

And clicking on the name of the hearing: Regional Diplomatic Strategy in Iraq. Sen Kerry's part begins about 2:33 into the hearing and last for about 15 minutes. It's intense.

This is very depressing. The best case scenario in Iraq would be about 15 years of active civil war until the parties basically exhaust the urge for war and decide to sit down and negotiate their differences. The experts from the CFR (http://www.cfr.org/publication/by_type/testimony.html ) were not optimistic in their assessment of what will happen. They believed that Americans have uncorked the genie of civil war and that it won't go back in the bottle for a long time.

This is very serious testimony. I highly recommend that you give it a listen. I will post a transcript as soon as I can.

[TayTay]

2. SFRC: Irag Study Group (ooooh!) 1/17/07 2:00 pm

Securing America’s Interests in Iraq:

The Remaining Options.
Alternative Plans: The Iraq Study Group

HEARING
before the

COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
UNITED STATES SENATE
ONE HUNDRED TENTH CONGRESS
FIRST SESSION
Thursday, January 18, 2007
Time: 2:00 PM
Place: 216 Hart Senate Office Building
Presiding: Senator Biden


Witnesses:
+The Honorable Lee H. Hamilton
Co-Chair, Iraq Study Group
Director, Woodrow Wilson International Center for
Scholars
Washington, DC

+Additional Witness May Be Added…

**************************

I remember the Iraq Study Group! Didn't they have a hit single back in, oh, let me think, early Dec of '06? (So long ago in Bush years.) They were the toast of the town, everybody was talking about them. You couldn't turn on the TV without hearing about Hamilton and Baker, Baker and Hamilton. Let that be a lesson to you, fame is fleeting.

Seriously, What the hell did happen to the Iraq Study Group? Where are they now? Will there be a VH1 special any time soon so we know 'where are they now'?

[YvonneCa]

4. ...

...:7

[TayTay]

3. FinComm Small Biz & Work Opp Act of 07 -- 1/17/07 10:00am

Executive Session to Consider "The Small Business and Work Opportunity Act of 2007"

January 17, 2007, at 10:00 a.m. in 215 Dirksen Senate Office Building

Member Statements:
Max Baucus, MT
Charles Grassley, IA

*******************

This is an executive session. I think that means no witnesses and a bill on a fast track to passage. That would be nice.

See what happens when Democrats get elected? We get nice bills about small business and work opportunites right away. Democrats are so much cooler than Republicans.

[TayTay]

7. CORRECTION: The SFRC hearing on military is Thursday

not Wednesday as I wrote below. Geez, that'll teach me to post late at night when I'm tired and just got back from the hospital. (Minor stuff, not to worry. Just having some busy days taking care of others for stuff that is fine and going to be fine. Not to worry, just busy here.)