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The need to have at least 15% at a precinct for that support to be counted in the final results, greatly impacts the results. He knows (at least roughly) what his initial percent was overall. If for example his average was 10% statewide, under a symmetrical distribution well over half the precincts would throw away his support. He may have looked at real Iowa numbers and the NH polls and decided to hang in at least another week or two.
It would be far fetched to find a way this could lead to him - but imagine that the Edwards launch some attack that sticks to Obama, but destroys Edwards at the same time. This would leave only him or HRC, and it looks like one result is people are sick of Clintons. Or, imagine that HRC implodes further, leaving only Obama and Edwards, but some Obama comments are twisted to raise the need of someone with experience. Again, Richardson would be the only one there.
As to Edwards, he hung on far too long in 2004 - with a cloying press claiming he still was viable. This time it will be harder. I think one likely loss that will be devastating is SC. EE spun Iowa as great as he beat HRC, but everyone knew that that did not suffice. He is not expected to do much in NH. SC could emotionally hurt as it is his native state and the state he won in 2004 with 45% of the vote. (NC was after JK was the nominee - it was a favorite son thing.) Another factor is Elizabeth Edwards' health - campaigning at that level of intensity has to be grueling - when you are winning or hoping of wins, the victories make it seem lighter. The real question is whether he will be able to see the writing on the wall or if not, if someone he trusts will tell him.
As one who really doesn't like Edwards, I found I felt really sad for him - even more than I had for Gephardt last time. He faces an end, not just to a dream of being President, but likely of having a lasting political career. Worse, he ends it as he began it, a man seen to have enormous potential, but with no major accomplishments. Many on DU mention him for a cabinet position, but somehow, I don't see it. I certainly do not think he will be considered for VP. Throw in dealing with his wife's illness, I really feel sorry for him. Sorry enough that I have tried to avoid saying anything negative on the bigger threads. This is far worse for his supporters than anything we faced. Kerry had a place in history had he done nothing after 1971 and even if he left the Senate, he would still be a top foreign policy expert.
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