A Corrupted Election

[whometense]

There's a thread on this over at http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=327208&mesg_id=327208, but I thought the Kerrycrats might want to read it as well. Even if only to weep.

A Corrupted Election
Despite what you may have heard, the exit polls were right
By Steve Freeman and Josh Mitteldorf February 15, 2005


Recall the Election Day exit polls that suggested John Kerry had won a convincing victory? The media readily dismissed those polls and little has been heard about them since.

Many Americans, however, were suspicious. Although President Bush prevailed by 3 million votes in the official, tallied vote count, exit polls had projected a margin of victory of 5 million votes for Kerry. This unexplained 8 million vote discrepancy between the election night exit polls and the official count should raise a Chinese May Day of red flags.

The U.S. voting system is more vulnerable to manipulation than most Americans realize. Technologies such as electronic voting machines provide no confirmation that votes are counted as cast, and highly partisan election officials have the power to suppress votes and otherwise distort the count.

Exit polls are highly accurate. They remove most of the sources of potential polling error by identifying actual voters and asking them immediately afterward who they had voted for. more here...

[karynnj]

1. Weep

I did not want to believe that an election in this country could be stolen. But, when it was reported that the reason for the discrepancy was that Kerry voters were more likely to agree to be interviewed for the sample, I realized that I could not rule it out.

I had expected the report to identify some systematic peculiarities in the sample design that caused biases. Years ago, I worked in various groups that designed many of the large samples used to measure various things in major corporation. What bothers me the most is that they are not saying they used new methodology from past years or that someone made a mistake in implementing the design.

Saying that the % non-responders was different by candidate is reached by computing actual - predicted. But doing that ASSUMES that actual is right. So, it is really not proof that the exit polls were off but rather a conjecture to explain why the exit polls disagreed with the vote. Unfortunately, you can't mathematically proof that there wasn't this difference in non-responders. (What they aren't saying, but it would be good to know is how many people refused to participate - I don't even know if they record this information.)

One thing that is a little weird is that various churches told people to vote for Bush. Now, if they voted for Kerry, they might be reluctant to say they voted for Kerry. I can't think of a similar construct where people would be reluctant to say they voted for Bush. (And no, not enough people are in the top 1% and they don't tend to live in the swing states.) Maybe people were prouder to vote for Kerry?

I would actually be happy if either there are errors in this paper or if the organisation that did the exit polls acknowledges fundamental mistakes because although I (like all of us here) wanted so badly for Kerry to win, I'm sicken by the possibility that it was stolen.

I have not posted in the election forum because although the exit polls have never been anywhere near this wrong before, it raises suspicions rather than proves anything.

[New Earth]

11. there's a lot more than the exit polls

i'm sorry you didn't read the 2004 election forum more often or you would know that. exit polls or no exit polls, how do you explain 124% voter turnout in a precint? the list goes on....

[karynnj]

12. I have read there

Just not posted. The whole thing makes me sick. The problem I have is that there is still a very large part of me that is establishment enough not to want to accept that the US may no longer have fair elections and wants to accept the statement that there were irregularities and widespread voter suppression but no widespread fraud. I'm not totally naive. I grew up outside Daley's Chicago in the 50s and 60s.

There is a feeling of being part of two disjoint worlds where the MSM and the people I talk to have absolutely no sense of this at all and the election forum where the view is that if you aren't 100% certain Kerry won you are in the minority.

I do think that something was weird through the summer and fall. The C-span coverage of the Kerry rallies showed that they were enthusiastic and huge. The coverage on the networks, the print media, and on cable seemed to minimize this. A sister from Kingman, Arizona told me the crowd for Kerry and Teresa was bigger than any she'd ever seen - even though they were 2 hours late and it was over 100 degrees. (She loved their speeches, especially Teresa'a - she expected John to be good and he was, but she was blown away by Teresa) If the media would have actually shown segments of these rallies on a daily basis like they did with Clinton/Gore's similar trip, you would likely have had the same momentum.

It was weird that, in spite of positive Bush coverage (when on c-span he seemed almost petulant in the few rallies I could bear to run) and neutral to negative coverage for Kerry, I saw more Kerry signs in my Republican county than I ever saw signs for a Democratic President before. The coverage of the Bushes and the Kerrys was also strange - somehow the Bushes were shown as American as apple pie, while John and Teresa were both depicted in very strange ways.

It definitely seems like the Republicans took control over the media and a democracy depends on an independent media. So even before the first vote was cast, this was not a fair election. The deck was clearly stacked against Kerry. I do know that just based on human nature, the press is never going to be totally even handed. The difference this year is that while one somewhat inadequately researched but largely true story on Bush ended with 5 people effectively being fired, a totally made up Fox story did not even lead to the reporter being removed from covering Kerry. (Not to mention the free media given to the swiftboat liars>)

So I definitely do not think it was a fair election. But, I'm not sure there is enough proof that Kerry and others could go into a Republican dominated Judicial system and charge fraud. Also, there is no constitutional process for rectifying this situation. (or Al Gore would have been made President when it was shown that he would win Florida with a state wide recount.)

The real question is: can we fix the situation better than we did after 2000?

[whometense]

14. I just about agree

with everything you say here. The only place we diverge even a little is in the belief I have on a gut level that something was seriously amiss with this election. You know that new Malcolm Gladwell book, Blink? That 's about me. I've come to really trust my intuition, and my intuition tells me this election did not add up - for a lot of the reasons you mention: the huge rallies, the exit polls, *'s pathetic poll numbers, etc.

And on this: The real question is: can we fix the situation better than we did after 2000?

Well, I had emailed a bunch of senators back in January about the vote - like probably everyone else here. Today I got a mailed response from John McCain. And was it ever anemic. He talked about HAVA, and about how we need to make adjustments to it. Lame, lame, lame. I'm very proud of JK and Reid and Boxer right now, but without a few repubs with consciences, I just don't know how much they'll be able to accomplish with voting reform.

[karynnj]

15. You would think McCain would have a vested interest

in fixing it - unless he views himself as the primary candidate of choice.

I actually do agree with you - on a gut level, my brain is lagging behind. The voter reform thing tomorrow should be interesting. I'd believe it in a second if Kerry said it was possible. (even if he said it was remotely possible.) I do realize that he is unlikely to unless he had clear cut proof.

[whometense]

16. Agreed.

I was just writing about cynicism, and how I love JK for his lack of it. I'm truly disappointed in McCain, who I had thought was a bigger man than he turned out to be. The sight of him being hugged by * was truly stomach-flipping. I really thought if it came down to it he might throw his support to Kerry. What a pipe dream that was!

[karynnj]

17. Or at least stayed quiet

You didn't see Lugar out campaigning for Bush. (or getting kissed on the head.) I thought his comments to Kerry before the Rice confirmation were nice.

If McCain had acted in such a dignified manner, I wouldn't hold his support of his own party's candidate against him. Also, I can't help but believe that he was the source of the VP stories.

The thing that weird is that in his book, when he describes the POW/MIA thing Kerry comes out far far better than he does.

[elshiva]

18. Do you think McCain might run?

Cheney said he won't run. Thank God! So, who will run? 2008 is going to be so surprising. What Dems AND what Repubs will run?

[LittleClarkie]

13. I'd rather believe it was stolen

than to believe that I'm surrounded by that many evil people.

This administration has GOT to get theirs sooner or later. Even Hitler had his Russian Front.

I think if they go after Iran, that will be their Russian Front.

[ginnyinWI]

2. thanks, whome--now I'd like to get up on my soapbox--

I went over and read the other thread, as well as the article. But I wanted to comment here.
Yes it's heartbreaking to think about again, but we have to. If JK did actually win by 5,000,000 votes, it's a tragedy for him and for all of us. I want him to be vindicated--to have the world know that he should have won. But it's more than that.

We need to think beyond just this election. If John Kerry won and should be president now, that means that the majority wanted him. We are in the majority in this country, not the minority. Our issues are the ones the majority agrees with. From social morals to economic issues to foreign policy, more wanted Kerry's ideas than Bush's. Just remembering this can empower us (I think it already empowers JK to be bold about his initiatives). We can and should act like the majority party, and not be intimidated. Just because the other side shouts louder does not make them right, and does not make them the majority. We need to hold our heads up high and keep on talking!

If they stole this election, then how many other races did they fiddle with? How about Tom Daschle? How about other seats in the House and Senate? What would our legislative branch look like if the will of the people was heard and acknowledged? Nobody knows for sure, but my guess is that we'd have Democratic majorities today. If they can rig a presidential, they certainly can rig congressional elections.

The results of this fraud are apparent in more than just the numbers. Yes, a lot of people are fooled by Bush and his fear mongering and lies. But there are a lot of very sensible people out there right now. People who use gut instinct to vote, and knew that this president is a phoney. Think of the incompetent job he and his cabinet have done, and how they have to use spinning and lies to cover up their failures. They are failures, and should never have been in office--on some level the people knew this. The only people who should have voted for him using rationality were those few elites that he lives to serve. The fact that they have failed so miserably in office help to prove that they didn't deserve to be there--the collective sensibility of the people, because of sheer numbers should be right. That is the basic principle behind the idea of majority rule. If Kerry really won, then he has the mandate, not Bush! At least his ideas should have the mandate now.

We've got to go forward and keep on fighting. It makes me more determined than ever. We DO represent the real America! We've got to expose these theives and all their crimes, and take back our country. We've got to live and talk as if our values are the correct values, and that our party is on the rise. Bush and his party can only fail so long before they self-destruct. We've got to be there to help them along, and then take our rightful places in leading this country. We know the world is also waiting for that day.

[whometense]

3. Thanks, Ginny,

that was bracing! I'm paralyzed today with outrage overload, and your post was like a friendly slap.

Did you see Little Clarkie's thread here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=273x14386 on Will Pitt's column? That was the most cheering news item of the day for me.

There are so many disturbing aspects to this. For I swear a month after the election I went back and forth in my mind about what was worse, theft of the election or knowing over half the voters chose the chimp? I still haven't answered that question to my own satisfaction. It's still causing me brain whiplash.

But *'s current poll numbers seem (to me anyway) to back up the idea that it's really possible that theft happened. It seems to me that a lot of the people are not fooled. Just cheated.

[ginnyinWI]

4. yes I saw it

It's a positive sign. I'm so happy JK is working as hard as he is right now! Every day he comes up with something new. How many other senators are doing this? He's anything but stupid; I think he knows he should be in the White House now. And I think people in countries all around the world know this, too.

To me, it's better to know that the majority did NOT vote for the Chimpinator. It lets me keep my faith in the people of America. Without that, what do we have? We'd have to resign ourselves to being losers, and "wrong", and to the repubs having the right to rule the country as they see fit.

Because of how the war was going, because of Bush's approval rating last spring, because Kerry won the debates--all of it pointed to a Kerry win. He campaigned his heart out, and won the most votes, and they stole them back. But it does no good to accuse without proof. While we wait for it, I think it does help a lot to KNOW.

[whometense]

5. You are so level-headed.

Thanks. And I think you're right. It's better to believe it was stolen than to have to think so badly of half our voters.

Wouldn't it have been interesting if all the foreign leaders Kerry talked with on his trip could have had visible thought-bubbles that we could read? I'm imagining they were thinking just as we do about Kerry.

JK's current work is just another indicator of his incredible bravery. And stubbornness. I think once he's made up his mind on something NOTHING will move him. The great thing is that he takes his time to weigh all the evidence and then decide. Unlike some others we might name.

[TayTay]

6. *'s poll numbers do tell a tale, don't they.

He has the lowest polling numbers for a re-elected Pres ever, I think. He was below 50% on Inauguration Day. This does tell us something about him and his re-election bid. He is not a popular President and he is in no position to propose sweeping changes to existing programs such as Social SEcurity or the whole war he has launched on the Social Services structure in the federal budget.

These people are arrogrant. It is their defining characteristic. (Well, that and utter ruthlessness and a complete disregard for the truth, but I digress.) They are going down the rathole in Iraq. (We spent $300 billion dollars, almost 1500 American and Gawd knows how many Iraqi lives plus all the greivously injured to arrive at what looks to be an Iranian-aligned religious state. This is beyond awful and truly dangerous for the future security of the region. And these guys are now talking about Syria and Iran in the same ways they talked about Iraq before the war.)

These guys are going down, I believe it with all my heart. Look at the SSI debate, they know they're losing badly. Just today, the news leaked out that * is considering upping the payroll tax limit from $90,000 to a much higer level. (A Democratic and a very progressive taxation model, btw.) He knows he doesn't have the will of the people on this one and is now trying to punt. There will be other failures.

There is hope and it is real hope. I love Harry Reid. I think he is doing great job at getting all the Senate Dems to stick together and establish that they are fightiing on principle to save the programs we need from the greedy Rethugs. And I think Kerry is doing a phenomenal job. He said he would file specific lgislation to deal with issues that were brought to his attention on the campaign trail, and he is doing just that. God bless 'em. I'm with ya, big guy.

[whometense]

7. I just heard the bit

about upping the payroll tax limit, and my first thought was, "Say WHAT????" This from Mr. "No Tax is a Good Tax"?

I do hope you are right. I'm feeling discouraged today, but when I look at the energy and orneriness Harry Reid and JK and Barbara Boxer are bringing to their - pretty thankless - work I feel ashamed of myself.

I do believe that the majority of American people are not behind nearly anything the *ies are up to. Fool me once...

[ginnyinWI]

9. He wants to raise the caps!?!

That is so hilarious. I heard it in the car on the way home. He's such a flim-flam man. Or should I say Flip-Flop!! Hope the repubs who voted for him are happy now! He will betray anyone, he cares not who it is, apparently.

I have bad days too, whome, I'm not always positive. But I try to be brave, like JK obviously is. He'll never give up--no retreat, no surrender, like the song says.

[whometense]

10. He sure isn't

a slave to consistency, is he? ;-)

[sandnsea]

8. It should have been 65/35

There will always be at least 35% of the people who would vote Republican because they actually believe in no social programs and military might.

It never mattered to me whether the vote was 51/48 one way or the other. It was still waaaaay too many people who believed Bush bullshit so I always took the view that there was work to do if that many people could be bamboozled, even if the election had gone to Kerry.

And I always took the view that we'd face the same voting issues, even if we'd managed to pull it out.

Even before the first vote, I figured we'd have a fight on our hands to get back to core Dem values, even with Kerry in office.

Maybe that's why some of this hasn't bothered me quite as much. I've been prepared to fight for the Dem agenda all along.

Although I do still just sit in amazement at how people believe what Bush says. Even on SS, they're repeating the crap that he has no plan when every thing that comes out of the WH and Administration is clear on what the plan is. He's just such a lying sack of shit and too many people still don't see it.