What a sober read:
http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/2008/12/11/poznan-american-problem/Part of it was a screw up in scheduling:
In this atmosphere of doubt and disappointment a session on Monday evening advertised in the official daily program as including Senators John Kerry (D-MA) and Dick Lugar (R-IN) was understandably packed to the gills and dozens couldn’t get in the door. With no official representatives here from the Obama transition team, and with Bush’s negotiators making sometimes bizarre pronouncements about Obama’s intentions or lack thereof, a message of clarity and hope from senior Obama advisors was a must see for this international audience. Unfortunately what was delivered provided little by way of a reiteration of a message of hope or an assurance that waiting a year on the US to get its act together was a good idea. In fact, the take home from the session suggested an opposite conclusion.
For starters, Kerry, Lugar, and Olympia Snowe (R-ME) (also on the program) weren’t there. This was due to an unfortunate miscommunication between the conference secretariat and the event’s sponsors: The International Emissions Trading Association (IETA), The Pew Charitable Trusts (not to be confused with the Pew Center on Global Climate Change), and Environmental Defense.
Apparently, the congressional aides depressed the hell out of the attendees:
http://www.nature.org/initiatives/climatechange/features/art26701.htmlDuring a panel discussion in Poznan on Monday, aides for Rep. John Dingell and Sens. Richard Lugar, Olympia Snowe and John Kerry said political and regional disputes — along with the complex legislative process — will make passage of a cap-and-trade bill before the COP 15 meeting in Copenhagen next December highly unlikely.
This is more detailed about what each individual congressional aid said:
http://environment.yale.edu/blog/?p=47Those expecting clear direction on the future of U.S. climate policy were left hanging. Lori Schmidt from Rep. Dingell’s office started out by informing the audience that anyone expecting to get a firm read on the future of U.S. climate policy from the event should leave now. She said it’s still not clear what Obama will do, although the appointment of an energy/climate czar is one possibility.
...
Kathleen Frangione, a Kerry staffer, said that her boss will be in Poznan on Wednesday and that he recently declared “We’re back” vis a vis the international negotiations process. Considering that Kerry is the incoming chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, this should carry some weight. She thinks that legislation is not necessary for the U.S. to enter into an agreement at Copenhagen, although the bipartisan consensus prior to the negotiations will influence what can be agreed to.
A staffer for Senator Olympia Snowe presented a series of slides with quotes from past Senate debates (Climate change legislation will: kill jobs, raise energy prices, expand the scope of the federal government, etc.) to illustrate the nature of domestic opposition. The effect was to remind the audience that many of the obstacles to climate legislation and international agreements will remain the same. Reactionary legislators who know little about world affairs and the constituents who elect them still have enough sway and votes to block the process unless they are brought into a very big tent. When one audience member asked about the U.S. reaction to recent moves on emissions by China, the Snowe staffer replied that she suspects the many Senators aren’t even aware of what China’s current position is. Even though Obama was elected and everyone expects momentum on climate, it seems the U.S. may remain weighed down by a few obstinate Senators for years to come.
Back at the Think Progress link, here was the reaction:
As the air left the room, along with a good number of those gathered, a representative from one European state standing next to me began audibly muttering to himself. After it was over I pulled him aside and asked his impression. “I don’t understand you people,” he said, glaring at me. “It’s like you think you’re the only ones in the world with a complicated legislative system! Have you any idea what it’s like to try to get something through the EU?”
I had no response except to sheepishly offer that these folks didn’t speak for the administration and that Obama has been consistently vocal on an ambitious approach to climate change as soon as possible. Surely, while no one could doubt that there will be hurdles getting the US back in this process in such a short amount of time, it is ridiculously premature to declare the death of an agreement in Copenhagen as a foregone conclusion. Whatever one thinks about these difficulties the overwhelming impression of the audience leaving this session was clear: We weren’t the change they’ve been waiting for.
Until I hear otherwise, it seems little was accomplished in Poznan. It is really too bad that there was that schedule screw up. I think Kerry would have reassured them more, which is shown in the words his aide spoke.
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