Your thoughts? Sestak v. Specter (PA Senate race)

[MH1]

Not completely off-topic - I am also wondering if JK has had anything to say - I haven't heard but I suspect not. (And yes lately he's had a few other things on his mind)

The Dem establishment (including Obama!) anointed Specter to run as the D in 2010, to reward him I guess for switching parties. When Specter HAD to switch parties if he wanted ANY chance to keep his job in 2010. The PA GOP left Specter in their dust in their gallop to the extreme right, but that doesn't make Specter a Democrat, just someone who can't get re-elected as a Republican.

So I guess JK is in a tight spot, probably having a good professional relationship with Specter and pressure from the party leaders to support, or at least not openly oppose, Specter in the primary. Yet I know JK really likes Sestak. He probably will just stay quiet until after the primary unless he has a really good justification to take a stand. I am just wondering if anyone has heard anything different.

And, I am wondering what you all think. I know many of you like Sestak, but you may think differently about the Senate race because of strategy. So ... what do you think?

Meanwhile, if you are so inclined, there is a diary on the rec list at dkos that would be nice to keep there ;) -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/9/2/775823/-Were-Debating-Here-In-Allentown

Sestak is debating the presumptive Repbu candidate (Toomey) on health care tonight, in Allentown, starting at 6:30 EDT. Video will be streaming from Joe's site: http://joesestak.com/Splash.html


(apologies to anyone who thinks this is too off-topic for this forum. And, I hope to be spending a little more time with you all again soon.)

[TayTay]

1. I think JK respects Joe Sestak a great deal

and enjoyed working with him in his Congressional races.

I think that your intuition about JK staying out of the PA Dem primary might be a good one though. There are some races that you sort of let happen, unless there is some personal connection in there. There is one in this primary, Sestak being a veteran and a Admiral at that, but I would kind of be surprised if any overt help was offered to Sestak.

BTW, did VoteVets make a recommendation on this race yet?

[MH1]

6. Thanks for your thoughts Tay; VoteVets endorsed Sestak

I was only mildly surprised that they did it so early. Joe has been very big on veterans issues and is very involved with veterans groups.

http://www.votevets.org/news?id=0241

[wisteria]

2. I am not going to mince words, I am voting for Specter.

I like Sestak,and it saddens me that he is running now. IMO, it is the wrong time for him to do this. Republican Toomey and his major supporter, Richard Mellon Scaife are doing all they can to promote Sestak because they want to run against him and not Specter in a general election. I was born and raised in Philly and Philly politics runs through my blood through family ties, Specter is a well known,liked and well respected figure in Philadelphia-especially among the older sec and independents. Sestak, will have an uphill climb trying to surpass his popularity there. And, I don't think Sestak will have a shadow of a chance in the area I now live in which is outside of Pittsburgh. Here, Scaife runs the papers and controls the news media and Toomey is a well known and promoted figure here and in Harrisburg. The wavering Dem's in this area will either vote the party endorsed candidate- most likely Specter or not vote at all until the General election. I fear if Sestak somehow becomes our candidate in the general election, he will lose to Toomey, who is familiar to people throughout the state because he ran before. I do not want to see Toomey become our Senator- he is as bad if not worse- then Santorum and Scaife would be in the background controlling things.

Oh, and BTW, I here that Sestak and Toomey are going for a beer after the debate. Toomey extended the invitation and is buying.

Here is a write up on the debate and follow up from the Tribune Review.

http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/news/state/pennsylvania/56723617.html

http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/news/state/pennsylvania/20090902_ap_specterfoessestaktoomeyholdtownhall.html

[YvonneCa]

3. Wow. I have no vote in this...

...but would have leaned toward Sestak. I really have no respect left for Arlen Specter.

Until I read your post, I had no idea about the real stakes in that race. That's a tough decision. Thank you for all the background information.

[wisteria]

4. Yes, it is very tough for me. Sestak makes a lot of sense and has less of the "politician" in him.

And, his military background is extremely commendable. He hasn't been a Congressman that long and I am sure he would have won back that seat. He now gives it up to run in this election, I believe.If he loses this- we have lost a great representative in Congress. I probably shouldn't say this, but I would speculate that this may be the last run for Specter- who is getting up there in years and has had at least two bouts of cancer that I can remember. Senator Specter-as a Republican- has really made me mad on occasion, but he can be counted on to be a moderate voice in the Senate. He never was a staunch Repub. Toomey on the other hand, will be a real nightmare.
This race is both fascinating and scary for me.

[MH1]

7. Thanks for your views. That is the kind of thing I was looking for.

Obviously I am supporting Joe. Unfortunately, I think Specter's switch is allowing Toomey to play the moderate, when in reality Toomey is more wingnutty than Santorum (so I've heard, anyway). Meanwhile, I think, as Beachmom says below, Sestak running against Specter is pulling Specter further left than Specter would be otherwise. I'm not sure when the deadline is for Sestak to back out of the Senate race and be able to run for re-election to his Congressional seat. I suspect that option is in play and will remain in play until the last possible moment, at which point Sestak will probably make a decision based on what he thinks his chances are to defeat Specter in the primary. I really believe /either/ Specter or Sestak can beat Toomey, especially if the Dem Party fully supports the primary winner. I think Sestak actually has a better chance but that's my personal opinion, based on knowing many rank and file dems who have spent too many cycles campaigning against Specter, who can't forget things like Clarence Thomas / Anita Hill, and who haven't had time to forget Specter's very recent activities on topics such as EFCA.

All that said, I will definitely vote for Specter in the general against Toomey (to be more precise, I'll be voting against Toomey), if Specter ends up on the ballot as the "Democrat". I do try to remember to point out to folks, even as I support Sestak, that Specter (as a 'D') will be better than Toomey, if that's the choice that we end up with.

Again, thanks for your feedback! :)

[wisteria]

10. Your welcome, I appreciate your open mindedness.

I think Specter has been around so long he is part of the "boys Club".He has formed a lot of friendships over the years. Rendell and Specter go back a long ways. Specter was Philadelphia's DA and Rendell was Assistant DA under Specter years ago.

If the Primary does go in Sestak's favor, I will work my a** off for him. As I said, Toomey would be a nightmare.

[MBS]

14. I'd love for Sestak to win, but am nervous about this

. .remembering what happened to Bob Edgar, when he made the same switch (from congressman in the same district to Dem senate candidate . .he lost in the general election.)
Edgar himself is fine (he went on to do good things for mainstream Protestants, and keep a political voice as secretary of National Council of Churches), but that congressional district had to endure his Republican successor for too many years until Sestak came to the rescue.

[MH1]

9. Tribune-Review is a Scaife paper, right?

I think I see some bias in the wording of those articles. Not surprising if it is Scaife's paper.

For anyone who wants to watch the debate, apparently the video is available at wfmz.com, per this post:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=175&topic_id=15556&mesg_id=15560

[wisteria]

11. A big YES! The Tribune Review is Scaife's paper. He is a sick minded man.

His editorial henchman at the paper even find space to include Senator Kerry and Teresa on the Opinion pages under various captions- always in a negative way.

[beachmom]

5. Well, I think we can all agree that at the least it is good that Sestak is challenging Specter.

Why? Because Specter has been running to the left ever since Sestak announced, always a good thing.

I really like Sestak, MH1, and think he is right on the issues overall. However, Wisteria has a good point on "strategic voting". Since I don't have a vote, I guess I'll be a spectator on this one.

[MH1]

8. I think you're 100% right on the value of Sestak challenging him

and in fact, I think it's possible there may be a little of "traditional politics" at play here. (this is PURELY speculation on my part, to be sure!) Sestak is no dummy and he's also got a lot of gumption, his House seat is pretty safe, and it was widely rumored before Specter's switch that Sestak would get in the race. Sestak's the perfect strawman for the Dems to hang out there to keep Specter honest. At some point just before the deadline, Sestak may realize he can't beat Specter in the primary and go back to running his House race, which he will probably still win - with a dry run for the next Senate opening now under his belt. The Dem bigwigs are acting all offended about Joe's uppityness, but who's to say they aren't really quite happy with what he's doing?

[wisteria]

12. Good point. n/t

[rox63]

13. I don't have a vote in this race

But I'm afraid we'll lose Sestak as a voice in the House if he loses this fight. I want to keep him around Congress, in whatever capacity he can serve. But I'm assuming that he will not be running for his House seat at the same time he's running for the Senate. Although Sestak would be my choice over Specter, Specter has a lot of supporters on both sides of the aisle.

Tough one, I know...

[MBS]

15. I wasn't happy to see Obama campaigning for Specter this week

. . evidence of the Rahm Emmanuel side of the White House, not my favorite part of the Obama administration, to say the least. I get (sort of) the rationale behind their primary strategy, but I'm not wild about the general principle of this much presidential interference in primary races, and I really had hoped that Obama would stay neutral at least in this particular race. Seeing Specter -- looking old and kind of used-up -- standing next to Obama. . it wasn't a pretty sight.

I hope that Sestak comes out of this race either as a winner, or, alternately, at least with his political present and future in good shape. He's a good guy, and has lots to contribute.

[wisteria]

17. Specter might not look young and vibrant next to Obama, but he knows his stuff

and is trusted and well liked among the many older Pennsylvanians. Specter has had at least two bouts with cancers and he is known as a real fighter for Pa when it counts.

Sestak has proven that he is unpredictable and not a team player by opposing Specter at this time.
Old time Democratic loyalties and politics runs deep in Pa and he will be ignored. The local Repubs up my way are making it a point of promoting him though.

I understand why Obama is doing what he is doing, but as you said, I think he should stay out of state primary races. That goes for New York as well as Pa. It seems we are being shown a side of Chicago style politics here.

I too, wish Sestak well. He is a good man and I would hate to lose him as one of our Democratic representatives.

[MH1]

18. Strongly disagree.

I know many people who despise Specter, including many older Pennsylvanians (of course those I know are typically committee people who have spent multiple cycles campaigning AGAINST Specter and know an awful lot that is wrong with him).

Sestak is not at all unpredictable, particularly regarding this race. He was also asked (initially) not to run for Congress, but when it was seen that he wasn't going to back down, AND that he would clearly be the stronger candidate (in that race), then the party lined up behind him. It has been surmised for awhile that Sestak would run against Specter this year, since well before Specter's switch. Those of us who know Sestak respect him for not laying down for the party establishment.

As for team player, I'd say the ones not being team players here are the establishment dems, Obama and Rendell. It is one thing to welcome Specter to the party and throw him a bone here and there. But they should have stopped at taking sides in the primary. I get the sense that they totally dissed Sestak who has been a GREAT democratic representative in an important district. Meanwhile, Sestak knows he has an uphill fight across the state (he'll take the 7th hands down), but by challenging Specter from the left, he is forcing Specter to start voting like a Democrat - which I don't know if we'd have seen so much of, if Sestak weren't running. So Sestak is risking his very safe job for this, and helping out the party by doing it - not that the party is likely to appreciate it.

[MBS]

19. ditto n/t

[wisteria]

20. I come from a different perspective than you do and I still contend that Specter

has the support of most older citizens in Pa.We will have to wait for the primaries to see who is right and who is wrong. And, I didn't want my post to be perceived as attacking Sestak. This is just my observation as to what is going on. Frankly, he has every right to run if he so chooses to do so. I still maintain that he will be ignored by the party in Pa until such a time -if it even comes- that they will have to support him over the Republican. It was all prearranged that Specter would be our candidate and frankly, even though he was a Republican, he was always moderate, and I welcome him into the Democratic fold.

Answer me this, why did Sestak enter the race at this time? He hasn't even been a Representative that long. Why does he think he is qualified to be a US Senator? I can provide you with a long legislative history from Specter, what has Sestak done legislatively since he has been in office? Is he running on being more than just the alternative to those who don't like Specter?

I have not decided who I will vote for or even support at this time. I do lean toward the guy with the record of achievement and name. As a committee person I will be obligated to support whomever our candidate is in the general, but I am open to considering someone other than Specter, if it can be proven he is really the stronger candidate to take on the Repub in the fall and he has the qualifications to be a US Senator.

[karynnj]

16. In 2006, he did not endorse either Lamont or Lieberman in the primary

in spite of Lieberman having been a net negative in 2004, praising Bush's Iraq position in FL and having just attacked Kerry on Kerry/Feingold. No sitting Senator endorsed Lamont in the primary, though many endorsed Lieberman. This is not parallel, because although Spector is the sitting Senator, he is a very recent Democrat and, in fairness, he has mostly voted with us. I think Obama and the Senate leadership traded something like 6 months of a 60th vote for winning the seat with a real Democrat.

I suspect that Kerry will remain silent - or maybe say nice things about both. The latter would let him subtly give more support to Sestak than Obama and others have. Kerry in the past has supported veterans in open primaries - but this is not being treated like an open primary.