Guys, the climate bill may be dead, or dying. Really bad news:

[beachmom]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/11/11/803541/-Climate-bill-withers,-replaced-by-cowardly-senators-framework

RLMiller is an upbeat guy/gal, so to read such disappointment is ... disspiriting.

Unlike Dana Millbank, TPM actually did some reporting:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/senate-to-un-well-make-climate-change-before-its-time.php

U.N. General Secretary Ban Ki-Moon stopped by the Capitol today to lobby Senators to get on board with comprehensive climate change legislation in advance of next month's U.N. climate summit in Copenhagen.

The response he got from Senators mired in the debate over health care reform? Get in line, pal.

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) joined Moon with reporters after his closed-door meeting with the Senators. All three said that there was no chance a climate change bill will make it out of the Senate by Copenhagen, and slim chance it will come after that. Kerry said the bill comes after health care and financial services reform in terms of Senate priority.

"We understand the importance of us leading on this issue," Kerry said. "I'm confident we'll pass a law as soon as it is practicable. And when I say practicable I mean after health care and after financial reform."

AFTER financial reform???? I thought it was supposed to be after health care reform. Thing is, RLMiller lays it out on how that will all work:

The climate bill and hopes for a global treaty are withering on the vine. The bill will not pass out of anywhere in time for Copenhagen, or by the end of this year. Next year, timid Senators in reelection fights won't touch it. By early 2011, politicians will focus on an overriding issue of far greater critical importance than that of the planet -- their own fates in the 2012 election.

Seeing that this is Kerry's biggest work in the Senate aside from Afghanistan, this is not good at all. Unfortunately, RLMiller is not pleased with Kerry, when I am sorry, this is not Kerry's fault. He is 1 of 100, and clearly, there is no push from the public to do this and plenty of pushback from the Right and monied interests. I am pessimistic about its prospects tonight.

[Luftmensch067]

1. I think this is just another battle lost

But I'm entirely sanguine that JK and his allies will win the war. Like everyone here, I've been watching him since he lost in 2004, and he just keeps finding new ways to change the fight and move things forward anyway. I think the latest is the idea of bringing a "framework" to Copenhagen. It would be great if Obama were there, but with JK there, I'm sure representatives from other nations will come away with some inspiration and hope to go on fighting for a treaty.

The Senate is full of old tortoises and we have all been hearing that they are being left in the dust on this issue by state and city governments and by other nations. Eventually, they will understand this and act AT LAST. But it will take a little more time.

[karynnj]

2. That sucks, but Reid has said in the past that it won't be done

The real problem is that the Senate calendar keeps getting pushed back. Baucus extending the time on Health Care really hurt and apparently gained nothing. Now, I suspect from Kerry's comment, Reid has given Dodd the green light to do the Financial reform first.

I wonder if part of the reason is that climate change still has to pass 3 committees - and all of them have chairs who are not committed on this. I am surprised that RLMiller would blame Kerry, who has been working incredibly hard on this - rather than Reid, Baucus (for healthcare and this), Lincoln (who likely doesn't want this through her committee) and Rockefeller(who spoke of 2011). Kerry has no control over any of these people.

Even if he, Graham, and Lieberman came up with a bill, I assume they would need to have it go through the committees.

[Inuca]

3. Isn't timing for financial reform

even more critical than for the climate bill? I wish the Senate were not moving an at the pace of an old and arthritic snail, but it does.

[karynnj]

4. The problem is having something for Copenhagen

In addition, it was really the surprising amount of good news on a potential bill earlier this fall that led to raised hopes that it was possible. The fact is that in early September - and even earlier in the year - the prospects were seen as very low. Kerry actually answered a question at one of his speeches about the timing. He said that he hoped to at least be able to show support around a specific plan and spoke of it being worse if a plan is taken to the floor and defeated - which he would not allow to happen.

The fact is the good news pieces are real, Kerry has Lieberman and Graham, who are at least willing to talk and he/activists/the administration etc have moved businesses and some parts of the military to support it. Kerry dominated the Finance committee which was stacked against the bill destroying the most supercilious (and that is an accomplishment for her) economist ever and a RW spin mister with a PHD. To me, Baucus looked like he was extremely skeptical of that economists model - likely because of the excellent staff work Kerry did creating a table showing jobs created by state estimated by several models. There likely would have been no such skepticism without Kerry's table. The facts remain the same - most Senators accept the science (if anything Green's appearance rather than advancing AEI's agenda hurt it, although there was at least one RW blog claiming he won that encounter with Kerry. There were far more environmental sites that picked it up cheering Kerry on)

One other thought is that one point that is always raised about the cap and trade idea is that it would create the same possibility of speculation that occurred with the mortgage securities. One thing said was that none of the things that nearly destroyed the world's financial systems have been made illegal. It might be less an issue if there are serious reforms in Dodd's bill. I think financial reform is out of both Frank's and Dodd's committees. If no other committees have jurisdiction, they may be ready to go when (if) health care passes in November- and it is not clear that climate change can make it through the committees by then.

The problem with going into 2010 is that there is all the budget stuff again and then you get close to elections making the vote harder for some Senators and many Congressmen - where the Finance Reform may rehabilitate Dodd and help Reid, who are both up.)

[Mass]

5. Nothing new here. It was never going to pass, I am not sure why

people get all upset. It will pass eventually, because the corporate interests have started to see it is in their interest to have this done, but it is ridiculous to see this passed before Copenhagen.

Yes, people are disappointed. Hell, those of us who cared have been disappointed for years now, but I cannot get upset on this because there is nothing new there. It was not going to pass. Months ago, Kerry had said he hoped the bill would be out of the EPW for Copenhagen, but did not think more would be done.

So, not sure what is the big deal here?

[karynnj]

6. I suspect the dissapointment is because of the incredible things that

started to fall into place last month. The fact that so many businesses joined forces and Lindsey Graham joined Kerry - not on the EPW bill - but in being willing to work together were big and they created some raised hopes.

I simply don't see - even if it were slated immediately after healthcare - that there is enough time. There were also other people saying for a long time that financial reform had to be done soon.

I suspect that what RLMiller is responding to was that things had started to look promising and he has done an incredible job writing brilliant posts and really pushing as activist agenda to move the Senators on the fence. Seeing Kerry refer to financial reform coming earlier had to completely disappoint him. As you said, Kerry has tried to use Copenhagen to get movement, but as you say, I never thought a signed bill was in the offing. (How in the small number of weeks left does it get through 3 tough committees, get merged, have a floor debate, get 60 votes (for cloture) and then join with the House bill in conference and then win again in the House and the Senate and get signed by Obama. (Reid is hoping to get the Health bill to the floor next week. Even if he gets it passed before Thanksgiving, it still needs a conference and the House and Senate votes.)

[beachmom]

12. No, this is not about it not passing before Copenhagen.

This is about it NEVER passing. If history is our guide, then Democrats will LOSE seats in 2010. My view is that it either passes in 2010, or it's over. Because if it is more like 2011, we will have LESS votes than before. The only hope I saw was if it was taken up right after the first of the year (with the assumption, crossing fingers, that health care passed by the end of 2009), and could pass before midterm elections really heated up. But with financial reform first, climate change won't come up until it will be "too hot to handle". As I have mentioned before, there is very little true awareness of the dangers of global climate change and how we need to limit CO2 emissions. It is invisible to most Americans, unlike health care which has spelled ongoing pain for the typical American.

I suppose if Exxon Mobile comes aboard in 2020, after Miami sinks in the ocean, then it will pass ... :sarcasm:

[Mass]

13. Thanks for your view.

I may be a little bit less upset because I am looking at whether we will get a healthcare bill that is useful or simply a notch to president Obama's belt.

[karynnj]

7. Here is a more positive article on Kerry's comments yesterday

US Senator John Kerry said yesterday that he is aiming to release a new draft climate change bill before the Copenhagen Summit next month, in a move that could increase the chances of a global deal being reached.

<snip>
The bill, which would commit the US to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent by 2020, is struggling to secure the necessary support in the Senate, and Kerry has been hosting a series of urgent bi-partisan meetings designed to deliver a compromise version of the bill that could secure support from moderate Republicans and those Democrat Senators that have expressed reservations about the bill.

<snip Kerry is quoted as saying>
"We are engaged in a process that will hopefully put us in a position to go to Copenhagen with a framework or outline of where the Senate will be heading in legislation," he said, adding that Ban "made it crystal clear that leadership by the United States of America is critical" to the success of Copenhagen.

<snip>
The move is likely to fuel speculation that President Barack Obama could announce emission targets at the Copenhagen Summit.

http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2252954/kerry-aims-compromise-climate

[Luftmensch067]

8. See what I mean?

He won't take no. Doesn't mean it'll work every time, but it usually advances us, even in the face of apparent defeat. In this way, JK is a personal inspiration to me every day.

[wisteria]

9. "Takes a licking, and keeps on ticking" .

I'm sorry, this just came to mind when I read about Kerry not accepting No as an answer. You have go to love his tenacity.

[MBS]

10. oh, you got it

It may be the thing I admire most about him . . .that persistence, in service of a good cause. . . a persistence which signifies for me hope and faith in action: hope walking the walk.

[Luftmensch067]

11. Yes!

MBS and Wisteria, that's just what I meant.

[beachmom]

14. All of which could be spin for an international audience.

Look, the U.S. needs SOMETHING in its hand when it goes to Copenhagen. Since we are nowhere near to passing a climate change bill in the Senate, Kerry is going to present something that seems like it might have bipartisan broad support in the Senate. But that does not amount to real votes. Color me skeptical about this "dual track", which strikes me as Kerry trying to salvage the situation for Copenhagen. But beyond that, who wants to bet it comes to nothing in 2010?

Either it will be a) toothless posturing bill which is more about nuclear energy and offshore drilling instead of CO2 emissions or b) in fact, doesn't have anywhere near 60 votes.

Think about it guys: Kerry who authored the original bill is now going to present a rival bill???? This is about Copenhagen. It's kind of ingenius, I admit. But it amounts to bluffing to a certain extent. We'll see if the international community buys it, and therefore it buys more time for the U.S. to get its act together.

[karynnj]

15. I have to agree - this does seem putting the best face on it

but, if it finds a possible compromise position, it might be somewhere between the two alternatives you cite. (Especially if the rest of the world moves on allowing tariff penalties for non-participating countries - something Kerry mentioned in the Finance Committee and China really gets aboard the effort, it seems many of the 67 identified as not completely against it might vote for it. (The tariff position could win many rust belt states) As long as it has a strong real cap and trade, and no huge subsidies for coal and nuclear, it could be good.

That is NOT to say I think things are rosy and will easily work out - much the opposite. But Kerry has worked internationally as well and he clearly is one of the people who has moved things forward.

[wisteria]

19. I think at some point down the road we will have a real climate change bill.

It will be a compromise and will not contain enough to make the left very happy, but it will be a move in the right direction and it will be able to be built upon.
Maybe I am being very optimistic here, but I do see something of a compromise coming sometime next year.

[beachmom]

20. I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

What I base my pessimism on is the lack of public awareness on the subject. Many elected officials won't do things unless the public forces them to. That is why I feel health care reform will go through. And it's why I don't feel so confident that a climate bill will go through.

[ProSense]

16. After financial reform doesn't mean that much.

US Sen. Dodd sees financial reform bill by December

[karynnj]

17. True, but it makes it clear that even if something gets out of Finance

They still have 2 more committees and a merger before a vote. There is no way that happens that fast.

[ProSense]

18. Agree. I was

more referring to the point that it may be dead. This article implies that something, if not the final legislation, will be ready for Copenhagen.

[beachmom]

21. More news. Kerry bill w/ Lieberman & Graham could be out in a couple of weeks:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/12/AR2009111209127.html?hpid=topnews

Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) said Tuesday that he is still trying to provide negotiators with "a sign of political commitment on the part of the United States" by issuing a draft in the next few weeks of the climate bill he is writing with Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) and Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.).

Via Grist Twitter:

http://twitter.com/grist/status/5662069038

RT @eschor: Whoa. Kerry tells WaPo a draft of his #climate collab bill with Graham & Lieberman could come w/in weeks. http://bit.ly/1oWBcu