This is big: Kerry Floats Plan to Visit Tehran (WSJ)

[beachmom]

I read this rumor on Foreign Policy's The Cable a couple of days ago, but didn't post because I felt like it wasn't that solid. But this seems more definite:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4197221

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126161465189603571.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us

DECEMBER 24, 2009

Kerry Floats Plan to Visit Tehran

By JAY SOLOMON

WASHINGTON -- Sen. John Kerry has suggested becoming the first high-level U.S. emissary to make a public visit to Tehran since the 1979 Islamic revolution, a move White House officials say they won't oppose.

The offer comes as mass protests against Iran's regime are resurfacing and a U.S.-imposed deadline nears to broach international sanctions against Iran.

"This sounds like the kind of travel a chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee would -- and should -- undertake," said a White House official, adding it would be at Sen. Kerry's own behest.

It's unclear whether Iran would welcome the visit, and it would be controversial within both countries. The Iranian government has rebuffed other recent White House efforts to establish a direct dialogue.

The Obama administration hasn't decided whether to make Sen. Kerry its official representative if he goes, but as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Kerry can visit if the White House and Tehran both approve.

There are a lot of pitfalls to this, of course. For example, the fact that the current regime has faced massive opposition and protests. Would Kerry going there "further legitimize" the Ahmadinejad government? Still, check out the article. What do you guys think?

[wisteria]

1. Ineresting, I am waiting to see what comes of this. The WH seems to be in favor of him going. n/t

[YvonneCa]

2. It would be very controversial. It would earn the Senator...

...more enemies in this country, for sure. But I think he could do a lot of good.

[beachmom]

3. More news:

http://senatus.wordpress.com/2009/12/29/kerry-has-reportedly-filed-formal-request-to-visit-iran/

Kerry Has Reportedly Filed Formal Request to Visit Iran

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry (D-MA) “has filed a formal request to visit Iran, Iranian news agencies reported Tuesday — news made public in the middle of the government’s bloody crackdown on dissidents that has left more than a dozen dead,” according to Fox News.

[Mass]

4. Kerry's office has denied this at the end of last week.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2009/12/25/Report-of-planned-Kerry-Iran-trip-denied/UPI-92821261758985/

It is impossible to know whether he is thinking of it or not, but, officially, it is a big NO. It may have been a trial balloon, though. Also, while the Iranian government were denying it last week, they are somehow implying it is true today. Given the circumstances both in Iran and in this country, I would take these reports as dubious.

As far as I can see, at this point, it seems more like a talking point from the US than anything serious. More important, it seems, is the fact that Obama and Kerry are trying to get the Senate to vote less stringent sanctions about Iran (or at least did as of last week, before the recess)?

[beachmom]

5. Actually, he has now dropped the idea due to what has happened in Iran

this past weekend:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/29/AR2009122902205.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

-- Can we curb Iran's nuclear program? The clock on President Obama's timetable for engagement was supposed to run out New Year's Eve. But the administration is adding a little extra time by keeping the door open for talks before a vote on new U.N. sanctions, probably in March or April.

Diplomacy shows little promise of stopping Tehran, but neither does anything else. So the administration has encouraged Turkish mediation efforts to find a compromise on the Oct. 1 plan for enrichment of Iranian fuel outside the country, which Tehran appeared to accept and then rejected. The White House has also approved Sen. John Kerry's idea of visiting Tehran, but Kerry has wisely dropped that for now, when the Iranian regime is killing protesters.

I think it was a trial balloon, but the brutality the regime has shown to opposition protesters has squelched it.

[wisteria]

6. This being the latest on this idea- I have to wonder why some press organizations are not

picking this up? He is not going so why are some sources- like the WSJ & Fox still reporting otherwise? They need to update their pieces.

[karynnj]

7. They are playing games with this

Last week after the first stories came out, the Kerry spokesman denied it. It is very likely that it was as Beachmom suggested a trial balloon - either by Kerry or even possibly the administration. At that point, the most positive comment on it was from the administration person, who simply said they did not have a problem with it if Kerry went as SFRC head. (Kerry has been used before as SFRC head, with a close relationship to the President - but that was before Obama took office and again when he was in Afghanistan at the right time and things were in jeopardy.)

This second round seems to be sourced from an Iranian discussion of whether he could go that implies that there was a request. Note that the prominent sources are all right wing and all speak of legitimizing the government and the violent protests. None have the slightest backup from Kerry, Kerry's staff, or the administration. Given that Fredrick Jones just said last week that there were no plans, this reporting is pretty shoddy - especially as the WP has a quote saying that it is not going to happen.

I think that they are trying to manufacture more issues on national security to go with the Christmas bomb that failed. I seriously don't remember them going after Bush when Reed had his failed shoe bomb. It was actually lumped with attempts that failed. (The good news might be that it takes them away from speaking of healthcare in this last delicate stage. (Given that this was under a Bush TSA head, as DeMint had another hold there and that the policies go back to the Bush years, this really is hard to pin on Obama. The Secretary of State should be out with some plan to have a process to better control passports and visas, but the rules followed were the Bush ones.)

[wisteria]

9. Ah yes, where is the SOS on this? And, as for your other comments, I agree entirely.

The very idea that Republicans are playing politics with our national security, by suggesting that Obama is weak on terror and they are better, could possibly lead to more nuts like the underwear bomber trying something else. And, that is all this incident is for Republicans- a political game. Bush initiated many of the procedures now in place and it was their contention that fighting the terrorist over in Iraq protected us from them attacking us over here. Democrats have always said that remaining in Iraq and focusing our efforts there, made us weaker and allowed Al quada and other terrorist groups to expand to other countries and grow- this now appears to be what has happened.

[karynnj]

8. Here is a definitive "no" from Kerry's office

where they STILL attempt to parse past comments and this one to find a "maybe" or a "yes". (The timing on this - when the Senate was out of session and the Senator on a well deserved vacation is suspicious. The fact is that Jones denial of any plans should have at least equaled Iranian rumors.

Yesterday, Iranian media reported comments from the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman that the Iranian parliament was considering an alleged request filed by Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) to travel to Iran.

Today, Fred Jones, spokesman for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told POLITICO that "John Kerry has no plans to visit Iran."

<snip>

Interestingly, for the past week, Kerry's office has used variations of "unaware of plans" or "no plans" to discuss these Iran meetings rumors — rather than "no."

< my note: here is how the author parses the simple sentence given today - and it is hard to think of a simpler, clearer denial >

And at face value, Jones's statement Wednesday does not seem to be the kind of flat denial that Kerry had filed such a request, but doesn't seem to indicate such a meeting is imminent. It also does not seem to close the door that such plans have been or are being or will be explored.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/1209/Kerry_No_plans_to_go_to_Iran.html?showall

[beachmom]

10. Look, they didn't make it up out of whole cloth.

I think Kerry & the WH put out some feelers for him to go there. Meanwhile, Iran has blown up even more, so it just is not feasible at this time. The Right is making hay out of it, because it looks bad to talk to a regime that is murdering its own citizens. Iran itself is making hay out of it because they are in big trouble with the news coming out of the violence & unrest. But none of those bad actors and their ways in manipulating this story means that Kerry didn't want to go there.

JMHO. I just know that this info came from a couple of different sources in a couple of different publications.

[karynnj]

11. That is not what I was saying

I agree there clearly were feelers put out a week or two ago - and they were reported as such. But, by last week, Jones had stated there were no plans. Today's comment was pretty straight forward and given a response to the right playing with tentative plans of 2 weeks ago that were not going forward.

This was not Kerry and co playing with words, it was the reporter. I am not saying that there never was any merit to idea.

[beachmom]

12. Oh, okay. I see what you are saying.

I guess my point is that Kerry was going to take some shots for this. It shows how hard it is to want to reach out diplomatically to Iran. Even sticking a toe in and then deciding against it brings about attacks from the Right. Not much we can do about it. I thought it was a good idea until things blew up in Iran. I mean when you think about the debate between Hillary and Obama in '08 about talking to Iran, no one could have predicted that a massive movement against the regime would organically rise up. It goes to show how unpredictable events are.

[karynnj]

13. I see - and I remember that whole thing between Hillary and Obama

I still think she took his words out of the context he meant them in (meaning his vagueness was turned against him here). The right took a shot at Kerry back in 2006, just for being on a panel with Khatomi, who was the pro-Democracy former President. You are right that there is nothing to do about it, but it doesn't hurt Kerry in the least. (It is interesting that the left values are so different that there were no shots at DeMint when he went to Honduras.)

The thing that surprised me about the rumors was that I thought Kerry was suppose to get more hip surgery in January - and he has sometimes looked like he had trouble walking easily. So, I was surprised that he could do both in the break.

[Mass]

14. Sadly, Laura Rozen is becoming another MSM reporter: " I do not know, so I will guess" .

The truth is that Kerry's office has denied the rumors since last Thursday (which she did not report then).

It is an important issue. It is a controversial issue that the right wing will attack as long as it can. It is stupid to make that about people, and even more irresponsible to guess that it may be a decoy (not that it may not be, but here, it looks a lot more like a reporter who does not want to abandon a story even if she has nothing on it.

[karynnj]

15. She has now put together another post giving all the Kerry denials

The odd thing is the commenters are completely incapable of reading and interpreting English. Here's a link to the new one - http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/1209/Sources_dispute_Iranian_reports_Kerry_filed_request_to_go_to_Iran.html?showall

[TayTay]

16. Interesting little scenario

And a very interesting game being played here. Obviously, permission to enter the country and security setup would take weeks/months to do. In the meantime, this is a great and easy way to get a "test vote" out of Tehran on where they stand on the US. Nice move Senator.

[wisteria]

17. Interesting.

And, just as interesting is the way the Senators surgery has taken the lead.

[karynnj]

18. It is interesting and Jeffery Goldberg takes the same line you do

(JK's spokesman's denials and the fact that he is definitely not traveling internationally this week make it interesting as to whether anything was floated. To me, the fact that it was FP, who listed Dick Cheney and Farheed Zakarkia and both Clintons as in the 100 top foreign policy thinkers - and not Biden or Kerry, and the Murdoch owned FOX and WSJ, make a leak less likely. All the same it accomplishes what you said.)

[beachmom]

21. Oh, something was floated alright.

I think Kerry and the Obama cabinet cooked up this scheme to demonstrate that Iran is not serious about talking. They want to show that they put good faith into diplomacy but it is simply not possible, especially given the flagrant human rights abuses going on there now, and the massive oppression. The point was to see if Iran would flinch. They did. On to Plan B, for which we need a lot of support from other players in the region: China and Russia. The U.S. needs to be seen as having exhausted the diplomatic route. Now it is on to sanctions. And maybe in time the regime will topple and we can deal with someone else.

Remember: President Obama's deadline was the end of 2009. He is not going to sit around while Iran goes nuclear. Now I am not talking war here (although who knows what Israel will do), but rather taking the next international steps since the regime is not serious about talking.

Re-read Goldberg:

Laura Rozen reports that the Iranian Majlis might reject the idea of granting John Kerry a visa. Not that Kerry ever was interested in visiting Teheran, oh no. If the story pans out, it will serve as further proof that the Iranian government is nowhere near as clever as some people think it is; it may also help prove the point that in Iran, just as in Israel, there is only domestic politics.

The bolded part is Goldberg being sarcastic. This was a game from start to finish. Iran showed its hand.

[TayTay]

23. I agree with that.

This is a giant poker game. Only Iran really does have a weak hand. And they can't bluff worth beans.

Now we know. And Sen. Kerry is, I bet, having the time of his life with this kind of international intrigues. (He was born to do this stuff, he has the mental stamina for it.)

Middle East politics is a roller coaster. The good Senator is there for the whole ride, with all it's ups and downs. He is uniquely able to do that at this point in time. Sit back and watch the ride.

[ObamaKerryDem]

19. I saw on CNN this morning that it was still being decided whether or not he would be able to go?

But now we know that he is having hip surgery today, so I guess he'll be going over there on crutches? :shrug: Unless they mean for this to happen sometime in the coming weeks/ months?

Very interesting, though, if this does indeed pan out..

[beachmom]

20. CBS News: Iran Won't Allow John Kerry to Visit

Well, I guess this is all she wrote:

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2010/01/04/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry6053469.shtml

Iranian officials have decided not to allow Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman and 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, to enter Iran, according to an Iranian media report noted by The Hill.

The semi-official Fars News Agency reports that Iranian legislators on Sunday rejected Kerry's request to visit the country. Hassan Ebrahimi, the head of the Iranian parliament's Foreign Relations Committee, reportedly said members of that committee voiced opposition to Kerry's visit "after studying the issue."

Contacted by the Hill to confirm the story, Kerry's office was vague. Spokesman Frederick Jones would apparently say only that "John Kerry has no plans to travel to Iran."

So Iran blinked. They don't want to talk. We needed to know this to go on to Plan B, which is not going to be pretty.

[MBS]

22. Here's the Globe's 1-5 story on this

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/01/05/iran_likely_to_deny_kerry_bid_to_visit/

I agree with beachmom that this whole story represents some sort of high-level chess game.
(Warning: with very few exceptions, the comments are the usual freeper nonsense. But the article itself is OK, though not, I'm sure, the final or complete story).

[wisteria]

24. Thanks,but this article is all still speculation. No confirmation from anyone.

And, the paper goes back to the beginning of the rumor - FP. I suppose this is just one of those situations that we will never really know the truth about. The only thing I agree with is that the administration has been trying to open up some sort of dialog with Iran.
I am also pleased to see nothing come of any of this. It would have been dangerous for Kerry to travel there and progressives and others who back the demonstrators would see any move of this kind as the administration legitimizing the current leadership in Iran.

[MBS]

25. Oh, I agree that there are no hard facts here

And I'm also glad he's not going, for just the reasons you've articulated.( I made the mistake of watching a little cable news last night, and, boy, the far-right has been giving me the shivers lately.. .)
But most of all it still feels like there's a complicated diplomatic-intrigue backstory that's probably generated the indirect stimulus for the information-free pseudo-reporting. Like you said, we'll probably never know.

I just hope that whatever the real story is, that something good comes out of it, and JK comes through it safely, both physically and politically.

Here's hoping the medical treatments for both JK and THK go well.

[wisteria]

26. I will second your good wishes. n/t

[TayTay]

27. Boston Globe Editorial on how this played out

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/editorials/articles/2010/01/06/kerry_no_tea_in_tehran/">Kerry: No tea in Tehran

Senator John F. Kerry shouldn’t feel bad that Iran has rebuffed his request to visit that tormented land. On the contrary, he can be proud of being in the company of an honor roll of persons and organizations proscribed by a regime that is ever more despised by Iranians. Witness the list of “institutions and foundations’’ cited this week by Iran’s intelligence ministry as covert agents of a “soft war’’ to overthrow the Islamic republic. It will henceforth be illegal for Iranians to have any contact with the BBC, Human Rights Watch, the Council on Foreign Relations, Yale University, the Ford Foundation, and several other such anodyne, apolitical entities. This is the paranoia of unworldly thugs who have lost legitimacy without losing the will to rule. It would have been an insult to Kerry if those putative leaders thought him fit for a visit.

I think the title of this Ed refers to Sen. Kerry's statement about his meetings with Karzei and how many "cups of tea" he had in that 48 period.

[wisteria]

28. Thanks Tay. Iranian leaders are becoming even more unstable and this make them even more dangerous.

And, I think you are correct about the reference to the tea.