This is the best article explaining in clear terms what I have been sensing about the polls

[Mass]

and why no individual poll matters at this point.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/01/is_brown_pullin.html

Who's ahead, Brown or Coakley? Depends on the poll

...

No one could blame a Massachusetts voter for being confused about which way the electorate is leaning these days. A raft of polls over the past two weeks have offered widely varying snapshots of voter sentiments looking ahead to Tuesday, when they go to the ballot box to choose between Attorney General Martha Coakley, state Senator Scott P. Brown and independent Joseph L. Kennedy.

The polls are all attempting to measure the same thing, but they use widely different methodologies. Some are more scientific than others, and some are sponsored by partisan groups with an interest in the outcome.

"God, what a puzzle," said Mark Blumenthal, editor and publisher of pollster.com, who has been sifting through the results of eight polls released this month. "My advice to a voter would be to say that the only thing we can say with any scientific precision is that it's looking like it will be a close race, and go vote if you want your voice to be heard."

...

“No one really knows anything about the electorate that is going to show up,” Blumenthal said. “We don’t have any experience with special elections held in Massachusetts in early January.”

...

Blumenthal said the challenge for pollsters is to determine who will vote on Tuesday, particularly now that the race has intensified.

“Really small differences in pollster methods can make big differences in the final numbers, and it’s not at all clear what the perfect poll would look like,” Blumenthal said. "There’s a lot of art and there’s a lot of guesswork and there’s a moving target."

...

“The one thing that is clear across all these surveys is that the most enthusiastic, most interested, and most likely to vote are the conservatives who are supporting Brown,” Blumenthal said.

...

I think there are a lot of undecided voters and they’re not measuring that,'' Moore said. "And I’m skeptical about the robo-polls. So I would say it’s a close race and I wouldn’t feel comfortable, if I were Martha Coakley, and I wouldn’t feel panicked, either.”

Blumenthal was also cautious in interpreting the results.

“Setting aside gut instinct and guesswork and judgments about where things are going, this looks like a race that is too close to call, though it may not end up close,” he said. “It may end up being 4 or 5 points apart. Or more.”

...

[wisteria]

1. I agree with you on this.

I wish times were different and Coakley were up by double digits, but it is what it is.

[Mass]

2. Did PPP poll people on crack?

So, a majority of people in this poll want to continue Kennedy's legacy, but will elect Brown to do

that?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_117468963846.pdf

The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for? If Martha Coakley, press 1. If Scott
Brown, press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Coakley........................................................... 46%
Brown ............................................................. 51%
Undecided....................................................... 4%

Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of the work Ted
Kennedy did during his time in the US Senate?
If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove,
press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 63%
Disapprove...................................................... 24%
Not Sure.......................................................... 13%
Q12 Would you like to see the next Senator from
Massachusetts carry on Ted Kennedy’s
legacy? If yes, press 1. If no, press 2. If
you’re not sure, press 3.
Yes ................................................................. 47%
No ................................................................... 41%
Not Sure.......................................................... 12%


Talk about confused.

And why is there a question about ACORN in this poll.

[ProSense]

6. That poll is seriously confusing. n/t

[whometense]

3. from the Phoenix, this makes a lot of sense, and backs up

the Blumenthal comments from the Globe:

http://thephoenix.com/BLOGS/talkingpolitics/archive/2010/01/17/senate-stories.aspx

--Bear in mind that pretty much all the polling you've seen has been based on voter-turnout assumptions that almost certainly no longer apply, now that the race has attained total public-consciousness saturation. Don't know what that will mean for the final results -- and it doesn't mean the polling was wrong, just that it was measuring something (a low-to-medium turnout election) that isn't the same thing as what will actually take place.

--Leaked Coakley internal tracking numbers that have been reported elsewhere seem to indicate that Brown's momentum peaked late this week, and has started to recede. Other polling and info seems to suggest the same. That seems to mean that Brown led at his peak, and now it's a dead heat.

[Mass]

4. Weather will play as well. If roads are like today, my guess is that some people will stay home.

The question is to know who it is: solid Democrats or excited Republicans who do not vote normally? And where? East or West of the state?

[whometense]

5. Very good questions.

And I wish I knew the answers!

[karynnj]

8. For what it's worth here's today's weather map

http://www1.whdh.com/weather/ (click on state in the second section and the 4th box shows the precipitation totals.

The NW suburbs of Boston look the worst. I looked at some forecasts for tomorrow and it looks like there is snow everywhere - but it looks like people in the Brkshires will wake up to snow and in Worcester and in Boston, it starts in the afternoon, but they had snow today - and the Berkshires didn't. It also seems that Hyannis will get rain, not snow until late in the evening.

Won't Boston be less affected as people can take the T? (I know NYC is always less affected, than the suburbs.)

[karynnj]

9. This makes a lot of sense

If the turnout really is high, it has to help the LESS enthusiastic group more than the group already modeled to vote at a much greater rate. A high enough rate that things like approval of Obama for likely voters looked very off from the typical approval ratings.

The weather adds confusion as it can have a different impact in different areas. Will Boston be the least affected because of the T? Or will the snow starting in the west early in the morning impact them more than in areas where people can vote in the mornings? Hyannis seems to be likely to get rain, not snow - will that hurt?

[whometense]

10. I wish I knew enough about this to

answer your questions intelligently, but I do not.

As all the pollsters say, we're in uncharted waters here, and the normal rules don't apply.

It's been so long since there was a senate seat up for grabs here. There's nothing normal about the situation. It's like the whole state's lost its balance or something.

But, as Tay always says, there are a lot of non-liberals here. They may love an individual liberal (well, if they're a Kennedy), but that doesn't necessarily mean that love is transferrable.

[karynnj]

11. I think you are right that this is uncharted waters

I wonder if part of the problem is that the party did not realize that Kerry, every bit as much as Kennedy, was an exceptional candidate and Senator. There were years each ran when Democarts were not in favor. Kerry won in a 1984, when Reagan had a landslide and he was the one who faced Weld.

Remembering how often they complained that Kerry was not in MA enough - no matter how many times he went or what he did, I wonder how much it is that people really don't like that she really did little campaigning.

(I also now see that it is not just a Senate record that can be twisted to look awful)

[MBS]

7. Blumenthal's take seems to me the most sensible

thanks for posting this article; several days later, it still seems the best description of what's going on (or what we know):

"God, what a puzzle," said Mark Blumenthal, editor and publisher of pollster.com, who has been sifting through the results of eight polls released this month. "My advice to a voter would be to say that the only thing we can say with any scientific precision is that it's looking like it will be a close race, and go vote if you want your voice to be heard.<[/b>"

I hope the Dems have some sort of effort to drive voters, especially elderly, disabled and/ or car-less voters, to the polls.. that could help the weather problem. . .