Tomorrow is D-Day for the climate bill. Lots of leaks coming out:

[beachmom]

First, Lowell (formerly of Raising Kaine) thinks it might be acceptable, although devil in the details:

http://www.bluevirginia.us/diary/587/preview-of-kerrylieberman-clean-energyclimate-bill

At first glance, this looks promising to me, but I need to study it more. As the saying goes, "the devil's in the details," and there are a LOT of details in this bill! Still, we badly need to get clean energy and climate change legislation, including a meaningful price (one way or the other) on CO2, for powerful economic, environmental, and national security (e.g., stop funding countries and non-state actors that want to hurt us) reasons. The main reason why, despite its flaws, I supported the Waxman-Markey bill in the House of Representatives, is because it enshrined the principle that there has to be a price signal for CO2. Currently, this is a huge "externality" and also a huge market failure.

By putting a price on CO2, we can harness the power of the marketplace to jumpstart a clean energy, low-carbon revolution in this country, one that will pay huge dividends for years to come. That's why I strongly urge the Congress to move forward on strong, serious clean energy and climate change legislation this year. We have no more time to waste.

ThinkProgress's Wonkroom has the actual document leaked:

http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/2010/05/11/kerry-lieberman-short-summary/

RL Miller has a diary up about Lieberman's SLIGHT ALTERATION due to the, um, oil spill in the gulf:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/5/11/865628/-SeaScum-Sen.-Liebermans-Climate-Bill-To-Expand-Offshore-Oil

I like how RL Miller calls it the "Kerry-YOURNAMEHERE-Lieberman" bill. Ahem, Mr. Graham.

Here is a good piece by David Roberts of Grist on where the climate bill stands:

http://www.grist.org/article/2010-05-10-where-things-stand-on-the-kerry-lieberman-climate-bill/

The Kerry-Lieberman (nee Kerry-Graham-Lieberman) climate and clean-energy bill is set to be introduced on Wednesday. Given all the chaos that's surrounded it for the last few weeks, it's worth taking a step back and taking a broad look at the current political dynamic and the chances for a successful outcome. Here's the one-sentence summary: Chances for passage are quite slim, but not as slim as generally perceived, and ironically, the path to passage now involves the bill getting stronger, not weaker. Read on.

Will it pass?

This is what everyone keeps asking me. (And everyone keeps asking everyone else.) The smart money, of course, is on No. Generally, predicting the death of major legislation is a smart move when it comes to the U.S. Senate. And after Sen. Lindsey Graham's (R-S.C.) bailing and the oil spill, lots and lots of folks are completely convinced that the coalition's fallen apart and the bill's dead.

I don't necessarily disagree that the odds are against passage. But I don't think the chances are as bad as conventional wisdom now has it -- i.e., I don't think they're zero. (Wo0t optimism!) Put another way: I think the chances are roughly as good as they've ever been in the Senate: low but non-trivial.

So the chances of a bill passing are not zero. Well, that is a good thing, right?

[ProSense]

1. Finally. Yay.

Posted here

I like Joe Romm's analysis

[karynnj]

4. Joe Ramm's analysis is awesome

It manages to be both very detailed and simple. It really shows how much careful thought has gone into this - and why so many, even before seeing it referred to it as well crafted. It also makes it very clear why Kerry has fought so hard for it.

[wisteria]

2. I remain optomistic about this. I wish Senator Kerry and Senator Leiberman

both good luck.

[karynnj]

3. Not zero is good - as is the dynamic that makes change more

likely to make it stronger. (I assume that means setting more conditions on offshore drilling. I suspect that that also may be a case where the market will help. It is completely obvious that insurance will be much more expensive after this spill, because it will lead to higher risk elements.

Back before BP, when there were discussions on Obama's policy change many argued that it would very possibly lead to little or no additional drilling because the costs are currently too high. With any luck the expansion of clean energy might happen fast enough to quickly make it less economically feasible.

But it is a good thin that they are at least introducing it. (I expect it to be negatively received here and on DKOS. They hate Lieberman and many strongly dislike Kerry and they are completely unrealistic about what could pass. (I will go over to read R. Miller's diary because she is excellent on this. The Grist coverage has been fantastic. (Thanks for the links.)

[beachmom]

5. Credit to the netroots. FP post by Meteor Blade:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/5/12/865675/-Open-Thread-for-Night-Owls:-American-Power-Act

Only problem -- it was posted in the middle of the night.