Kerry is in Lebanon and will be going to Syria an Israel

[karynnj]

Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, held meetings in Lebanon Monday before traveling to Damascus for meetings with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
<snip>
At a press conference in Beirut Monday after meetings with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Lebanese President Michel Sleiman, Kerry defended the Tribunal saying it had been requested by the Lebanese people who are "tired of the notion that assassination should be used as a political tool."

Following his visit to Damascus, Kerry is expected to travel on to Israel, the West Bank and Turkey, although his itinerary is still tentative.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/1110/Kerry_in_Lebanon_Damascus.html?showall

This article explains the need to defend the tribunal - it is very short, so I think this might be all I can quote.

Many observers fear violence could break out if the court indicts Hezbollah members. The group says the tribunal is biased and has warned Lebanese against co-operating with it.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5gdUKmlnooyA6FSn_oXpFhtEd26HA?docId=5070663

Here is an article that explains more of the Lebanese situation.
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1597422.php/US-Senator-Kerry-says-UN-s-Hariri-tribunal-will-complete-its-work

[ProSense]

1. Interesting trip and a lot going on. Here is a Kerry op-ed on Myanmar

Sen. Kerry: If Burma breaks from past, US should cooperate

BOSTON — This weekend, the government of Burma held national elections, the first in 20 years under that country’s authoritarian system. The elections were the culmination of a deeply flawed process, and should not be considered legitimate.

The military rulers of Burma, which is officially recognized as Myanmar, drafted a constitution and election rules designed to prevent a repeat of what happened in 1990. Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy won those elections in a landslide, only to see the army nullify the results, round up its political opponents, and impose two decades of calamitous military rule.

<...>

One crucial test will occur Nov. 13, when Aung San Suu Kyi’s politically-motivated confinement under house arrest is set to expire. She should be set free and allowed to speak her mind.

Similarly, those opposition party members who ran in the elections and won seats should be able to play meaningful roles in helping to shape the nation’s future. The military’s “roadmap to democracy” will lead to a dead end if the government keeps its political opponents jailed and muzzled.

<...>

[karynnj]

2. Interesting op-ed

From the op-ed itself, it seems that the US is actually moving away from this type of dual track program. The question is whether Kerry writing this is completely independent from an administration that has given up on this approach due to the lack of success or if he is acting as an Obama ally but not part of the administration suggesting in a less official way than an administration official could to Burma what they need to do to improve relations, while like every American condemning the bogus elections. It really could be either way.

[karynnj]

3. Kerry is in Turkey today

Trying to get Turkey to reengage with Israel. http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jUpGHqs7CdXzWLjT6ggXmxdqujEA?docId=5078956

[karynnj]

5. Here is another politico summary of the trip

They quote Kerry's statement:
"Senator John Kerry, Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee in the United States Senate, is visiting Turkey on November 9 for a meeting with Prime Minister Erdogan and other government of Turkey officials," spokesman Fred Jones said. "Chairman Kerry will consult with the Turkish government on the many challenges confronting both nations and discuss his trip to Sudan, Lebanon, and Syria."
<snip>
Iranian and Turkish leaders have said that Turkey is expected to be the venue for international Iran nuclear talks next week.

Kerry has been serving as something of a presidential envoy for President Barack Obama, going on an unannounced trip to Sudan late last week to convey Obama's proposal to accelerate Khartoum's removal from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terror if Khartoum implements and respects the outcome of a Jan. 9 referendum on southern Sudan's possible secession.

Kerry then traveled to Lebanon and Syria, to convey the United States's commitment to Lebanon's sovereignty. Kerry has met several times with Syria's President Bashar al-Assad to convey important messages from Washington, in part because the United States has no ambassador in Damascus.

Kerry is then going to Israel and the West Bank. ( The article then speaks of Clinton and Obama criticizing Israel's plan to build 1300 houses in East Jerusalem. Clinton will meet with Netanyhu in NYC later this week. )

[karynnj]

6. Here is a fascinating Financial Times article on Kerry's trip to Turkey

It is better than the other articles - explains what Kerry is trying to accomplish in Turkey - in short to act as the mediator between Turkey and Israel to get them to re-establish relations - that have become very cold since the flotilla. Kerry told FP that he was exploring how this deadlock could be broken. Turkey in the past was Israel's best ally in the entire area.

FT now has text that says it it a violation of their copywrite to cut and paste, but does say to link to the article.

[karynnj]

7. Here is H'aaretz, an Israeli paper on Kerry in Turkey

Nice summary of the history of the two countries, but nothing else not in the other articles - but it has a nice photo of Kerry in Lebanon. http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/senator-kerry-israel-and-turkey-must-renew-close-ties-1.323805

[karynnj]

8. Here is are two articles in Turkish papers (and not an AP rewrite)

The first suggests a much friendlier meeting than the AP article did - where it seemed that Kerry was pressuring them to make up with Israel. Here, the story is more speaking of the good US/Turkey relations and their past help on the Middle East, then expressing the hope that Turkey and Israel could get their relationship improved enough that Turkey could again help.

Referring to the friendly relations between Turkey and the United States, Kerry described Turkey as a significant bridge between the East and the West and thanked Turkey for playing a critical role in efforts for a more peaceful Middle East.

U.S. senator said he believed that Turkey could undertake once again its significant role as a mediator between Syria and Israel.

He said that restoration of Turkey-Israel relations would be "beneficial" for all parties including Turkey, Israel, the United States and the other countries. Kerry also expressed his sorrow over killing of nine people in the attack of Israeli forces on a six-ship flotialla carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza.

Kerry said Prime Minister Erdogan proved that he was a worldwide experienced leader, adding he believed that a progress could be made in the Middle East peace process by working together with Prime Minister Erdogan.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/news_detail.php?id=66153

The second has a much fuller discussion of all the issues covered, not just relations with Israel. My take is that Turkey has been a goo US ally and there are many things that have not made them happy - including not having an Ambassador. It sounds like Obama was slow to appoint one (he appointed one in July. His confirmation was on the agenda of the Aug 3 business meeting of the SFRC) and the Republicans have been holding approval up.

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-226803-102-kerry-its-importantthat-turkey-and-israel-renew-ties.html

[karynnj]

4. Ooops - missed a country that Kerry visted - Ethiopia - after leaving Sudan

He was there to discuss the situation in Sudan.

Ethiopia's PM said the two sides have to make themselves ready to accept the results of the Referendum. “Ethiopia will continue supporting the Sudanese Government and the Southern Sudan Administration to end the South Sudan crisis peacefully” the Prime Minister said.

http://nazret.com/blog/index.php/2010/11/09/ethiopia-meles-zenawi-held-talks-with-senator-john-kerry-on-sudan

The article mentions that Ethiopia is working with the African Union High-Level Panel on Sudan to facilitate the referendum.

This really is a major trip - Sudan, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey and Israel. All with major problems.

[Luftmensch067]

9. What do you make of this?

I've written a lot in the last couple of days about how the U.S. midterm elections are repercussing in the Middle East -- Bibi seems empowered, Obama is saying "watch it," more or less.

Now we see an interesting pivot from Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), who is touring the region.

From the Financial Times: Kerry is warning Iran that it might be time to pony up and talk nuclear -- because Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) is about to become a lot more powerful as the chairwoman of the House Foreign Affiars Committee. And she means business.

Scroll to the end:

“ will be more ready to say, put up or shut up,” Mr Kerry said. “There are people in there who will not hesitate to say, ‘prepare the military option’."

Kerry's something of a proxy for the White House on Middle East issues. I wonder if this is coming from higher up.

No idea about the writer's context or background, but this was a new take for me, though I'm not sure I know what it means...

blogs.jta.org/politics/article/2010/11/09/2741680/kerrys-pivot

[karynnj]

11. In context, it is less threatening

Kerry did speak of the fact that House resolutions on Iran and also (in response to a question) the Armenian genocide, that House resolutions are more likely to pass. I think he might have spoken of potential House resolutions more because they could very well happen. From all his comments, he seemed to be trying in Turkey to praise what they have done good and to encourage them to try to meet Israel half way in repairing their problems. (He did express sympathy for the loss of life in the flotilla incident - I think he is the first American to do so directly to Turkey in an unqualified way.

Kerry did NOT say that those resolutions would cause a change in administration policy. Nor did he imply that we would be more likely to go to war with Iran.

One conjecture:
He might be trying to use the threat of the Republicans to get Iran to regret not making needed actions when the Democrats controlled everything and giving them a hint that they will be best off rejoining the rest of the world now before the Republicans potentially gain more power. (He might be making the Republicans the bad cops)

As to Netanyahu - he likely thinks he has more American support than he does. J Street did a survey of Jewish voters and found that Israel was a number 1 or 2 issue with just 7% of American Jewish voters. Parts of the Jewish media has apparently tried to argue that some loses were due to supporting the 2 state solution (J street's position.) Here is a link to their election stuff - http://2010.jstreet.org/ that pretty much debunks that. (Yesterday, Eric and I heard the phone call mentioned with a small group of local J Street people - they are trying to develop grassroots) It is probably true that he might actually have more support among Christians than Jews - especially Republican ones. The Republican who will chair the House Foreign relations committee is beyond awful - and not just on this and Cuba.

He is completely misreading the election if he thinks it means support for him building settlements and not negotiating in good faith. But, it really is not and can not be the US that makes them make peace. It has to be that they see that time is not on their side - and it isn't. If they want a democratic, Jewish state - they need a two state solution. Kerry is not alone in telling them that the window of opportunity is closing. Like every problem, both sides need to see that they are better off with a negotiated solution.

One thing I wonder is whether these 1300 new buildings approved in East Jerusalem is an attempt to change what is on the ground. The hardest decision will be Jerusalem - where the most extreme on each side will refuse to accept a solution without getting the most contested parts of the city. If so, it could be a power play Or it could be an intentional way to end negotiations.

(One thing I would consider if I were an Israeli leader is what will happen if the US loses more of its dominance in the world. Over time - under any President - this will likely happen. There is NO other country that has been more biased in Israel's favor - and many biased against it. This may really be the last best chance if they want a democratic Jewish state.

[Mass]

10. The Globe has an online article on the trip

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2010/11/kerry_completes.html

Kerry completes six-nation trip
By Farah Stockman, Globe Staff

On Wednesday night, Senator John Kerry (D, MA) completed a six-day, six-nation trip that show-cased his growing role in helping the Obama administration negotiate potentially explosive situations.

Kerry, who is chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, traveled to Khartoum and Addis Ababa to deliver a White House offer for better relations in exchange for concrete steps towards peace in Sudan, Africa's largest country. Then he spent time in Lebanon and Syria, where he tried to smooth mounting tensions over a UN tribunal. He ended his trip in Israel and the West Bank.

In a telephone call with reporters from Israel before he boarded the plane home, Kerry said he held extensive discussions with Israeli and Palestinian leaders in an attempt to get them back to direct peace talks. The peace process re-launched by Obama in September has been steadily unraveling since Palestinian leaders refused to return to talks in response to Israel's decision not to extend a moratorium on settlement building. Israel's recent announcement of plans for 1,000 new housing units in East Jerusalem has further dimmed hope for progress.

But yesterday, Kerry said he has been exploring "creative" solutions with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad that might bring them back to the talks. He said he believed that Israel might still be convinced to extend the moratorium, but that there were other ways around the impasse.

...

On Sudan, Kerry said he was asked to deliver a delicate White House message because of his role because Congress is the body that can remove sanctions from Sudan, and also because of his relationship with key players there. Kerry, who is widely believed to want the job of Secretary of State, made a case for himself: "I think the president felt that because I had those relationships, because I bring that different angle, perhaps because I was known to those guys, both as a presidential candidate and the Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, it would help to add something that was not there previously."

[karynnj]

12. Very nice article

The first and last sentences say it all (both in the article and Mass's excerpt). The fact is that in every county he was in except possible Ethiopia, - Sudan, Lebanon, Syria, Israel, the West Bank and Turkey were potentially explosive foreign policy messes. Being trusted as essentially Obama's emissary in any would indicate trust. To be the high profile person in all of them - and to have succeeded in not having any of them blow up (like both Pakistan and Palestine did within a week as a SoS did)

I don't like the Globe saying that Kerry was making a case for him as SoS. The fact is what this does demonstrate is that he has now handled most of the explosive political countries - adding Afghanistan and Pakistan to this list. (To me, Kerry by his excellent work has proven that on merit, there is no question who the most qualified competent Democrat was for that position - the only reaon not in his favor was politics and keeping the Clintons under control.)