Kerry was interviewed by the WP on Syria

[karynnj]

This is a very interesting story - so far Syria has yet to do anything to give any confidence that they will decide to change. However, the action in Libya might cause Assad to reform, rather than face sanctions and possibly more. This is the real test of whether the line of communication Kerry opened will be useful. Things would not have been better without it - so all it was a low cost (just Kerry's time) gamble. Even if the speech is very promising - as JK says they will need to test it.

DURING THE past two years Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass) has emerged as the Obama administration’s key interlocutor with Syrian president Bashar al Assad. Now he is putting the dictator on notice that he has reached a make-or-break moment in his relationship with the United States.

Kerry has promoted the view that “engagement” between the United States and Syria could change the orientation of a regime that has been Iran’s closest Arab ally, and a weapons supplier to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. As recently as last November, Kerry said after meeting Assad: “I remain absolutely convinced that there is an opportunity to have a different relationship with Syria.”
<snip>
n an interview Tuesday, Kerry told me that he had contacted senior Syrian officials to demand an end to the killing. “I delivered as strong a message as I can that they have to avoid violence and listen to their people and respond,” he said. “Obviously the way the government has behaved is unacceptable. Sixty-one people killed is terrible, its abhorrant behavior.”

Now Kerry, like people across Syria, is waiting to hear a speech that Assad’s aides have promised he will deliver outlining a political liberalization in response to demonstrations across the country. “It’s a significant test,” Kerry said. “It’s a seminal moment.” The senator has heard promises of reform from the regime in the past. “I’ve always said, ‘put it to the test, don’t take it at face value,’ Kerry said. “You have to find out what people are prepared to do.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/john_kerrys_message_to_syria/2011/03/04/AFZm9rwB_blog.html?wprss=rss_homepage


Also in the WP, David Ignatius wrote that Assad is trying to survive by leading his own "coup"

Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad is attempting a new survival tactic in this Arab Spring — organizing what looks like a coup against his own government. Over the next 48 hours, it should become clear whether he has the political muscle and dexterity to pull off this unusual maneuver.

Assad dismissed his cabinet ministers Tuesday, and his backers encouraged massive public demonstrations of support in Damascus, Aleppo and other Syrian cities. Photographs showed huge crowds; a Syrian source claimed that 2 million Assad supporters had assembled in Damascus and 1 million in Aleppo, but it’s impossible to confirm these numbers.

In their effort to turn the tables on protesters, the regime used Facebook as one of its tools to summon demonstrators. The social networking site was officially approved in Syria less than two month ago.

Assad has deliberately avoided making any public pronouncements so far, leaving those mostly to his pro-reform adviser Bouthaina Shaaban. She said last week that Assad would repeal Syria’s emergency law, end the Baath Party’s monopoly on power, reform the judiciary and combat the corruption that is endemic in Syria.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/2011/03/04/AFMavKxB_blog.html

Interesting times these are.

[wisteria]

1. Thank you for posting this. There was a story from the WSJ about

the administration and France stopping Senator Kerry from going to Syria yesterday-"because the US would look weak if he did".

Interesting times indeed!

[karynnj]

2. I was wondering of the point of that story

That and other stories have also tried to position Kerry as a friend and advocate for Syria, which he isn't. There is a huge jump from saying that it is valuable to open a line of communication and to attempt to get Assad to see that his and his country's interests do not lie with Iran and suggesting that he is "for" Syria. (Wikileaks actually showed Kerry's position to be exactly what he has said in the open.)

It is interesting if the US (and France) stopped Kerry from going there last month - which would likely have been after he left Pakistan, where he was doing the unpleasant, tough job of trying to heal the rift after Davis killed Pakistanis, for Israel, where he had dinner with Netanyhu. (It may be that the Obama administration is not as firm on always being willing to speak as Kerry is.)

The article with the interview did a good job in putting Kerry's role in perspective. At this point, Syria can go either way. If they do really move in the way Kerry (Obama, Clinton, the world) wants them do, this can be a major change in the dynamics of the entire area. If that happens, the action in Libya is likely to be seen as the cause for the change. Kerry's role in Syria, although it likely might have been needed would likely not be all that public.

If Syria does not move in the right direction, there is no way that Kerry can be blamed, but the WSJ, that does not like him anyway, will likely argue that it shows that he was naive to have thought it possible. (Ignoring that even if Kerry would have estimated that it had a 1% chance of success, the cost in pursing it was worth it - because the cost was essentially just his time and the potential gain was that it would be a game changer in the Middle East.)

[Luftmensch067]

3. I agree with all you say here, but would just add

That I got the impression (maybe wrongly) that the time when JK was stopped from visiting Syria was on this last trip. However, that didn't make much sense to me, so it may not be true!

[karynnj]

4. I could be wrong on the time, but I did read that he went to Israel

after Pakistan in one of the Pakistani articles and that was in the time period after the Lebanese government fell and before the new Hezbollah led one was formed.

Assad's speech is bad news - it was rambling and it did not end the state of emergency as many thought might happen. http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/03/30/syria.unrest/?hpt=T1

[wisteria]

5. Oh, I agree with you. And, as for the WSJ, their dislike of Sen. Kerry is obvious in everything they

write about him. And, after they print mistruths and twist words, some other RW childish sites pick up where they left off suggesting they work side by side to discredit Democrats.