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Edited on Mon Apr-11-11 03:05 PM by karynnj
Years ago when I played bridge, there was always a caution not to think that someone who won big on a hand necessarily did anything right - they may just have had the better cards. In some bridge clubs, this is somewhat compensated for with duplicate bridge where all couples play each deal - and the scoring compares how you did versus all the couples playing the same direction (east/west or north/south).
Elections are not like duplicate bridge, the cards Bill Clinton held (a President at 33% approval on election day) or Obama held (the sitting Republican President in the 20s), were nothing like the cards Kerry was dealt. The President had an approval that was at 60% in December 2003 and fluctuated around 50 in fall 2004. Consider that some of the not approve people were the Pat Buchanan people, Kerry had to win some people who actually approved of the President to win. This meant that, though they approved of what Bush had done, they thought Kerry could be that much better that they were willing to risk changing President in the midst of two active wars. (It also meant, DU and Michael Moore aside, he had to be very careful in how he criticized the President. He needed people who not only did not already hate him, but approved of him to some degree.
One other factor might be that the country has never been less homogeneous. Patrick, a Democrat in Massachusetts, likely speaks and interacts mostly with others who are in the left half of the country. This makes it harder for him to see just how hard the task Kerry had in 2004 really was. (Think of all the DU posts that anyone would have beaten Bush.) There are likely many people on the right thinking the same thing concerning Obama.
Had there been more voting machines in Ohio (and the local Democratic party leaders who got the info on the number of machines earlier in the week should have seen they were allocated fewer than in the primary.) or had the Bin Laden tape not come out, we would never again have heard of the Grand Canyon or the $87 billion. Kerry would have won and everything would have been seen through that lens. He would have pulled off on an upset.
I remember the comments on all the cable shows that last week. Even people like Tucker Carlson were predicting that Kerry had the edge to win. I remember a strange conversation between Tweety and Fineman, where Fineman spoke of how Kerry was the least "politically skilled" person to likely win the Presidency (not sure of the exact word, but the meaning was that he was not packaged and pandering.) There was admiration for the high road campaign, Kerry's brilliance in the debates and even his calm, grown up demeanor.
When he lost, the narrative had to explain why that happened. The idea, likely true, that maybe too many people were still too terrorized (partially by their own government by phony terror alerts) to trust in the better world that Kerry held out to them, would never be the accepted reason, because it says the fault is in the US voters and American exceptionalism means that US can never be wrong. That the media itself played a role - which it always has - is also never the story. (I just finisher the Publisher, a book on Luce, the publisher and founder of Time, Life etc and there was not a year when he was alive where his magazines did not have their thumb on the scale, except 1960, where he was a Republican, but liked JFK too.)
So, they had to find errors - and all campaigns make them. In Kerry's case, when he made any, the media was unforgiving. Bush had a gaffe nearly every time he spoke unscripted - which led to him doing it rarely. Given the hours Kerry was speaking, it is amazing how few he really made.
The $87 billion was a quick summation of a very good detailed answer given to the question about 5 minutes earlier, when a second person heckled him with the same question - a less polite candidate would have simply said I just answered it and stopped there. The sound bite was devastating - and the media played its part pretending Kerry's explanation was too complicated.
They completely did not counter the Grand Canyon comment. It may have been that the Kerry family was too busy speaking to have heard the story, but someone who did really should have called someone like Cam Kerry to try to get them to respond. I think this was engineered by unfriendly elements in the media, but Kerry had the platform then to deny that was what happened.
The other attack was that he did not fight back against the SBVT - this is an absolutely false charge that absolves the media that condoned a character assassination of a good man.
Another attack was that he did not get his message out, but it would have been a whole lot easier if the media - other than CSPAN - covered even 4 or 5 of the speeches he designated as major - on Iraq, the War on Terror, healthcare, and environment/alternative energy. They did cover bits and pieces - mainly the attacks on Bush, but none of the substance.
The only other one that I can think of was the Mary Cheney comment, where Kerry's answer other than the Cheney part was beautiful - he really should not have mentioned her, and he looked uncomfortable doing so.
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