Thoughts on NY-9 (Weiner's district) going Repub?

[ObamaKerryDem]

What a massive shame. :( Though I hear it had more to do with the 'Swiftboating' of the Dem than anything else. Still feels like it could've been prevented, though. I still say that Weiner should not have been pressured to resign, even if he did do a dumb thing. Was it really worth THIS?

It appears that district is going to be phased out with redistricting next year anyway, but still, what a shame. And of course the media is right on it, though they essentially ignored when WE won a long-time RED district in May. CNN has been especially bad lately. Their sponsoring of the 'Tea party Express' debate was enough for me...again, WHAT 'liberal media'?

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

[Mass]

1. I think it is a warning shot more than anything else. They had to

elect a rep for one year, and this rep cannot run for reelection as the district disappear. So, it is more likely to be people showing their disappointment.

However, the cause of this disappointment may be multiple. Obviously, the economical situation is probably hurting many people, though I am not sure of the sociological makeup of this particular district.

However, there is another question that weighted heavily on the district and that the GOP exploited (with this group calling the democrat a "bad Jew"). I think this is mostly what you refer to talking about swiftboating.

As for the media, they are always the same. This morning, WBZ was showing popularity numbers for Warren and Brown as if they were numbers in a horserace. No deontology).

[wisteria]

4. Good points, I had forgotten about that seat being phased out. n/t

[karynnj]

2. It is a warning, but it also is easy to make too much of it

This is a district that has been trending towards the Republicans. The shift has been identified by some as coming from the changes in the that specific Orthodox Jewish community. Here is an article that studies the Jewish community in NY 9. The key take away is that as people age or leave, this community is becoming less and less the Jewish community that voted overwhelmingly Democratic. http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/culture/2011/09/3264144/turner-targets-conservative-leaning-jews-ninth-just-how-conservative

The trend is strong enough that Kerry did better by a few points in a tough year than Obama did in a very democratic year, even though Dov Hikind (a NY assembly representative who has a radio show popular among the Orthodox Jewish population) and Ed Koch, a former Democratic mayor who has moved to the right endorsed Bush. In 2008, Koch endorsed Obama, but Hikind wrote a endorsement of McCain, that could have been ghostwritten by Sean Hannity! (http://www.vosizneias.com/21734/2008/10/27/brooklyn-ny-hikind-obama-is-frightening-
vote-mccain/ )

The leaders of this Orthodox community are EXTREMELY to the right on Israel. Some even to the right of Netanyahu - and this was a voting issue. They succeeded in making this a referendum on Obama's policy in Israel - ignoring that they are not typical of Jews - much less America! I actually wonder if the Democratic party erred in having robocalls to everyone from Cuomo and Bill Clinton. It might have been better to have Leiberman, who endorsed the Democrat, vouch for him on Israel and speak - in Jewish terms - of Tikkun Olam (repair of the world) which matches Democratic values better than tea party values.

The other issue was that the Democratic nominee had voted for NYS's gay marriage law. This was a courageous vote - and this district is a bit too socially conservative.

[wisteria]

5. Good points, and I agree that all the things you mentioned did have an impact on the voters,

but our Dem's seemed to not put to much thought into, "what ifs".

[wisteria]

3. I agree with you. He should of been reprimanded-but retained his seat.

And, this is the way I always felt. To me, this shows how out of touch our Dem. Establishment is. They went along with the media/Republican frenzy over Weiner, figuring the seat was safe, and they could look like they were completely honorable. Our Dem's were set up,took the bait-instead of sticking with one of their own, and now they have lost a reliable seat in NY. Pelosi, did not handle this well at all. I am beginning to think, Washington Dem's have no idea what the mood of the country really is.

[Inuca]

6. Disagree

I think that Weiner was completely discredited and had lost all credibility. He made himself an object of inredible ridicule. But this is water under the bridge now, so it no longer matters much.

[ObamaKerryDem]

7. True (Weiner being an object of ridicule post-twitpic gate)..

..but hey, at least his seat would've been filled and stayed in our column until 2012, giving us a reliable vote in Congress until the redistricting change would happen. Now not only did scumbag Andrew Brietbart score an arguable win by getting Weiner effectively chased out of office, but the seat went Red, too. *shakes head* That's what really eats at me.