Well, if the vote were today, it'd be a tie

[TayTay]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1005

The same survey finds Congress’ job rating even lower, with just one-in-four likely voters (26%) rating the legislature favorably—and just 2% saying it is doing an excellent job.

The survey finds that both senators far outdistance their nearest competition for their parties’ nominations—but in a head-to-head match-up, the Arizona Republican bests the New York Democrat by 19 points, leading her 54% to 35%. McCain would also defeat Massachusetts Senator—and former Democratic presidential candidate—John Kerry by a full 20 points, 55% to 35%.

McCain has majority support in every single geographic region of the country. But more telling may be the fact that, even in the states carried by Kerry in 2004, McCain comes out comfortably on top—leading Clinton by 49 to 38% and Kerry by 50% to 40%. Among the states carried by President Bush, the margin is even wider, giving McCain a 58% to 33% lead over Clinton and 59% to 32% lead over Kerry.

McCain leads with most demographics, though Clinton would best him narrowly among Hispanic voters (45% to 38%) and would win African Americans by 80% to 19%. But that 19% would be the highest vote tally for a Republican with African Americans in decades. McCain leads Clinton with every age group except voters under 30, where the two are in a dead heat.

(SNIP)

Zogby International also continues to track the President’s performance in both the “Red States” which he carried in the 2004 election and the “Blue States” carried by Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat Bush defeated last fall. Just one month ago, Bush’s job performance was supported by a 51% majority in the Red States, but now has slumped to 48%. And in the Blue States, the President has dropped one point from 40% in May to 39% in the latest poll.

Kerry, Bush Would Now Tie in Election

Vote Again for Bush
45

Vote Again for Kerry
43

Vote Again for Third Party
3

Switch to Kerry Vote
2

Switch to Bush Vote
0

Switch to Third Party Vote
2

Would Not Vote
2

[TayTay]

1. Ahm, is everyone paying attention here

Kerry and Clinton are TIED against the mythical McCain nomination. Interesting.

[karynnj]

2. That is interesting to me too

Bush/Kerry Rematch up
It does seem that there is some buyer's remorse with respect to Bush. It would be interesting to see the transition matrix so you can see better the nature of the shifts.

One observation is that the people who voted third party are overrepresented. 3% would be third party again, so the minimum % of the sample who voted third party is 3%. The significance is that they did not force the sample to have the observed % for how each group voted.

That Kerry is getting a 2% shift of people who didn't vote for him is great. Hearing people here talking about moving to third party because Kerry is (fill in your favorite insult), I would love to know where the 2% not vote and the 2% shift to third party came from. I would bet that if some of these were Kerry voters, they may say 3rd party or not vote, but I bet in a real election they would go to Kerry. (especially as must seem maddest at him because he lost)

McCain vs either Hillary or Kerry

The one observation is that one of these three just went through a six month character assignation, another has received basically good press and puff pieces saying her nomination is a sure thing and what a good a Senator she is, the other has been deified between his movie and his constant appearances with fawning hosts on TV each week.

The numbers may show 2 things:
- There is no difference between Hillary and Kerry against a Republican perceived as independent, moderate and heroic. It would be interesting to see them against a more typical Republican. It is interesting as Kerry was lower than Hillary a few months ago.

-It may say 35 is the lowest a Democrat will get against any Republican (with 10 - 11 % not choosing yet).

Other observations
-Over the last several months I have heard many Democrats say McCain is a good guy - including Biden and Dodd (on Imus). Not Kerry :)
If it looked like he was the candidate many things could come out to haunt him. He has been far less scrutinized than either Hillary or Kerry.
-This poll likely was taken after the non-bombshell that Kerry was not a dedicated student at Yale. As most papers ignored that it also said his service record was that of a hero, he may not have been helped by that.
-As the RW has gotten everything it wants, I'm not sure the "electability" argument will work for McCain in the primaries.

[Dr Ron]

4. Not good news to spread

I'm afraid that if this poll was publicized, the response would be not that Kerry and Clinton are tied, but that both lose big and neither should be the nominee.

At this point McCain looks unbeatable, but there's no saying what would happen if he had to go through both a Republican primary campaign and a general election campaign.

[TayTay]

7. It's just reflecting the 'new face' of McCain

Like all polls that aren't actual votes, it's meaningless.

[jillan]

3. How is that even possible?

If the vote was today, I would expect Kerry to win in a landslide!

How could anybody say they would still vote for that idiot * ???

[karynnj]

5. The country is still divided pretty close to 50/50.

What's unusual is that there are huge percents of people who think he is the worst President ever and who think he almost walks on water. Also, many people who voted for Bush believed some of the lies about Kerry. Unfair as it is, there are a large number of people who may never give Kerry a truly fair look.

[Island Blue]

6. I wonder if this poll included those members of the extreme right-wing

of the Repuke party that are pissed off at McCain for compromising on the filibuster issue? (That's a rhetorical question, I know no one here has any way of knowing.) Didn't those folks vow not to support anyone who was in on the compromise? Don't those voters make up about 30% of the Repuke voters?

I personally will be very surprised if John McCain runs. (Although from all indications he's planning to.) He will be 72 years old in '08 and I think that will be a factor. I just don't understand John McCain's appeal except for the fact that he's a wee bit more moderate than say Bill "Cat Killer" Frist. The media does love the guy though, so he will be getting even more free press between now and then, I'm sure. There's just something about the guy that I don't trust. I guess it's best to do lots of homework and find out just what that something is!

[wisteria]

8. Well Tay Tay, I like the way you spin this poll!

My first reaction was Kerry is up a couple of points therefore, people are looking beyond his loss. I think this is a positive development. However, I really like the close numbers between him and Hillary. McCain, well, I was listening (VERY BRIEFLY) to Rush Windbag the other day, and he was talking about McCain and a story that appeared on MSN.com having to do with McCain's possible 2008 run. It was suggested that McCain could run as an independent. Mr. Windbag doesn't think his chances are good within the party, because he doesn't meet with the approval of the real republicans. Rush sees this as a plot perpetrated by the liberal press to insure a Hillary win. In other words, the media are using McCain to their advantage for Hillary's benefit.McCain divides the Republican vote, looses and Hillary wins because Democrats stick together and support her and don't flock to McCain. This is interesting if nothing else, especially if you take into account the numbers comparing Kerry and Clinton. Of course, the election is more than three years away and a lot can happen in three years. Right now, McCain and Hillary are the media stars, they get much more press than they deserve. People only really know McCain through his name being mentioned. I think it might be easy to take some of those votes away from him when you actually compare accomplishments,temperament,age,and honesty.Oh, and looks.(I'm sure there are other things not to like about McCain, these just came to mind).Any thoughts on this scenario?

[TayTay]

9. I think that McCain wants to run

but I really don't think he will. He will be too old. (72 in 2008.) I also heard there are health issues on him as well. McCain went down like a house of cards in '00 when his own Party stabbed him in the back. They took him out on personal behavior issues. The Keating 5 stuff and other things never even came up. That stuff is still around. McCain is no Boy Scout. He can be had.

I am possibly the only person in the world who actually doesn't think Killary will actually run. The shitstorm about that Pack of Lies book is just the tip of the iceberg of what she will face. I honestly can't see her running and facing this kind of stuff. (And I don't want a restoration of the Clinton Presidency. The first run was okay, but not great.)

It's a long way away, we shall have to see.

[wisteria]

10. I hope your correct on both accounts-Hillary and McCain.n/t

[Island Blue]

12. I really don't think Hillary will run either

If she does she's gonna have to shout really loudly because the Right Wing Noise Machine will be deafening.

[whometense]

11. McCain has had

melanoma. I believe it's under control, but it's also an ongoing issue.