Iraqi political development -SRF committee

[karynnj]

The 3 panelist have given their opening statements.They all agree that the Sunnis need to be very involved. The biggest differences are on how detailed the constitution needs to be. They range from Van Rest (Intn'l Rep Institute) who feels they need to to resolve everything and should not move deadlines more than about 30 minutes. Feldman(NYU)feels the Sunnis may have trouble with the degree of autonomy that the Kurds will have. Marr(US Institute of Peace) Warns against setting expectation for end of insurgency - like election, consttitution important but doesn't solve anything.

Lugar asked about education for constitution:
Van Rest - says they are having small group meetings and woman in particular are very involved
Feldman - Town meeting with open mike not in their culture. For Sunnis, the automomy of the Kurds could lead to a movement against the constitution. The radical Islamists would likely want more religion and they will create trouble. Open meeting will question why if they have a draft they are asked for opinion. Protest might be no vote.
Marr- Need to get the constitution before people - media , press, school setting - build civil society. (agrees Town meetings may not be answer). She feels should be done before and after the draft is created - and says this should be done even if they need to extend the deadline. Before is important to allow input. After they need to know rights.

(Trying to get gist of hearing, but am very slow)

[karynnj]

1. Discussing help from outside Sunni diplomats

At this time only the panelists and Lugar have spoken (Biden also made very short state - He looked really tired and basically said the Sunnis needed to be included.

[karynnj]

2. Lugar asked next question on identifying leaders

supporting them, asks if we should try to intervien to help them work together.

Marr: 3 sources Old leadership, exiles, new leaders from Iraq. Early covernment mostly exiles from west, now new group exiles from Arab states. Need experience running state. Kurds have lots of experience so they are in better shape. Differing visions - Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds have different fews - constitution process helping. Need to open Iraq to outside world - need contact.. scholarships etc. young want to come to study political science. Young people are the future.

[karynnj]

3. Dodd is up now

Says President needs to be engaged in this discussion - apparently they opted not to participate. Dodd said even in NE town hall meetings can be distruptive - someone dressed up like Lincoln got into a fist fight with someone else and that was the story.

He just asked about the Sy Hersh article - money to preferred candidates, doctoring numbers. Sy Hersh often right. Money to candidates: Van Rest: says they worked across the board to help parties develop messages etc. (Biden: backs keeping money for both the Democratic and Republican Democracy efforts - whose budgets are being cut)

Survey, why do you think Iraq is going in the wrong direction. (Weird they had both lack of security and terrorism - which had very different numbers.) Marr- says terrorism is bombing etc , but crime is actually a bigger problem than terrorism. Need more policing by Iraqis to free up people to fight terrorism

Why are they not working with the Libyans - majority Sunni nation. (They only talk of Jordan Eqypt) Marr: We want neighbors but Iraqi Shiites don't - the neighbors are mostly Sunni, Libya is a "far out" choice. Feldman - says Quaddafi has a "heterodox" form of Sunni - PC words saying he is a kook and we don't want to strengthen him.

Feldman: the original idea was the elected people would have a televised debate from the national assemby to debate the constitution. They could then see the people they elected. Re: Sy Hersh Feldman asked about statistical prove of ballot stuffing. Allaui had way more votes at the national level than his party had at the lower level - though this could have occurred.

[karynnj]

4. Lugar up again

talking about what kind of votes they need to ratify the constitution. Dec 15 National elections - if it doesn't work they have to try again.

[karynnj]

5. Biden again

Says among the Senators most involved in Iraq - there is no difference between the Republicans and the Democrats. He says he's still optimistic.

Said a debate in the National Assembly would inform country and then they could vote in it. "We , uh The Iraqis" came up with a way to include the Sunnis. The politician in me bets a constitution is written, there is a referendum, but 3 providences tum it down and the Sunnis vote. He says he thinks the Sunnis may want the constitution to fail so they can be involved in rewiring it. (This is the single most confusing soliloquy I ever heard from Biden)

Feldman predicts that the Kurds and Shiites will likely re-elect mostly the same people - so the center may hold, but the insurgency may get worse.

Biden wants the amending process to be much easier than ours.

[whometense]

6. I watched the beginning at work.

As well as I could, that is, with the volume at rock bottom.

Now I'm home. Is Kerry there?

[karynnj]

7. It just ended - No Kerry

I was in and out - but saw/heard most of it.

[TayTay]

8. There are 3 Iraq hearings this week in Sen For Rel Comm

Maybe they split the questioning up so that each Senator would be knowledgeable when their turn came to question. (They can't know everything. They must specialize to a certain degree.)

Did anyone mention the murders of the 2 (I think) delegates who wre invovled in writing the Constitution? Safety is an issue. If the Sunnis can't be guaranteed the safety to atten the meetings, isn't that saying a lot about the process?

[karynnj]

9. Yes

They talked about the bravery of the Sunnis involved - using that as an example of the risks, but oddly didn't mention need for greater security or even a sense of frustration. (Maybe didn't want to deviate from prepared statements or go off tangent. Though this doesn't seem off tangent to me.

Biden was in one of his strange modes, telling stories, and pontificating. He also said that if you took the 10 Senators with the most knowledge on Iraq, you would find little difference in what they recommend.