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It is interesting watching the political pundits attempt to make it conventional wisdom that their favorites are the inevitable candidates. This Sunday, Chris Matthews postulated that election winners were often those who don't have a fatal flaw the last President had (Giving the example of Bush bringing "decency" back to the White House :( (even playing 2000 tape to show Bush talking about this), honest, moral Carter after Nixon's dishonesty etc). With this lead up, he talked about needing an honest, non-corrupt leader next time. The commenters all ended up with Guilliani and McCain (no mention of the first name that would come to mind here - who in reality easily beats both of them on both dimensions.), except for Klein who pushed Hillary as being different than Bush (she is a woman, he is a man) In fact, the only Kerry mention was that Norah O'donnell demurred that she still thought it had to do with personalities and last year, Kerry couldn't connect. (Guilliani really is incredibly arrogant)
Clearly, Clinton is perceived to be a prohibitive favorite - but unlike any other candidate, no one says why, just that she has star power. Or is married to someone who does. She is an impressive speaker, competent and smart - but using Matthews' premise, she is not a good candidate if corruption is the issue, because all the Clinton stuff will be rehashed. She is a saint compared to Bush and nothing was proven on Whitewater, but it's to be seen if she'll be forgiven for some things that were real as McCain always is.
The Stephanopolis interview of McCain was an example of the press fawning all over him. He let McCain talk about the sacrifices (cutting budgets) that need to be made to pay for the hurricane damage. But he never asked him whether the Bush tax cuts should be rolled back or at least not made permanent. He also talked with McCain about his (and Warner's) amendment to say we will obey international law on prisoner treatment and will put it into the codes for the military services. Again, no question of his silence pre- Nov,2004, his vote for Gonzales, or why we need an amendment to require what should have always been the case. Just Praise. (No Fair!!! Why can't Kerry get any press groupies like McCain.)
I think Kerry is in a very interesting position. I like that he is overtly saying that he is reminded of how he felt when he came back from Vietnam and that to not speak out now would be irresponsible. If he didn't speak out, I think he would lose any chance of being considered and more importantly judging from those comments - he would not be doing what he thinks is right.
But, he might in one sense, be in the position he described in 1971 of having many important things he has to do now that might make him unable to make enough people happy. The difference is that he now has a Senate seat and years of experience, so he might be able to walk that tight rope. In reality, he had the skill to do this in his youth - he did go on become Senator and, if the times were slightly different or the election process more honest, he would be President now.
Another think to consider with Kerry's viability is that he may be positioning himself to be a favorite of a significant part of the active Democrats. If NJ (and possibly VA)is being used to test on how to help the local parties, he will have been instrumental in pushing people into volunteering to help other candidates. Those motivated by him are clearly impressed with his vision and him. These people, by 2008, will have had the experience of actually working for candidates and will be known by the other Democrats. This in addition obviously to at least some portion of his primary organization in 2004. The descriptions of Iowa actually kind of show this same idea back then and some of the MA stories suggest that worked for him in his early MA races.
If in 2007, Kerry signals he wants to run, I would imagine that a good percent of these people will rally to his side. He will have at the local level, many people who are already experienced and who likely have read his emails and press releases for 4 years - an unheard of level of knowledge. One of my difficulties in calling for Corzine the first day was there were issues where I knew little beyond the script - not good when you paraphrase the script and someone wants to know more. With Kerry, that wouldn't be the problem. (with Corzine and the Assembly candidates, I studied the web sites)
If he doesn't run or win, the expansion of the number of active volunteers may be his real legacy to the Democratic party. To my knowledge, neither Clinton or Gore did anything of this sort to re-establish the party from 2000 till today. Even in terms of form letters, I think I got more letters to fund Bill's library than to support the DNC and I get lots of Hillary disingenuous surveys, where the info is probably not even tabulated. It may be that I simply like Kerry better, but his letters which explain an issue he is working on, why it's important, how readers can help (petitions, calling reps etc)and then discreetly ask for a contribution at the bottom are more likely to get me to contribute. The letters respect the intelligence of the readers. If Kerry carries through and does this with his efforts and PAC, his support among state and local level politicians may be the surprise of 2008. (Not to mention local reporters are not as jaded.)
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