Situation VERY bad in Iraq - 1300 dead since Shrine bombing

[beachmom]

I had hoped that perhaps civil war could be thwarted; however, I am no longer so optimisitc. The facts on the ground must supercede a post by a 20 year old college kid (http://ejectiraqikkk.blogspot.com/) who railed against pessimism insisting there would be no civil war. I feel terrible for kids like him who don't want to hate, and simply want to live in a united, peaceful, democratic Iraq. Unfortunately, there are enough among the masses who would rather have revenge and war to drown out his innocent and sane voice.

This post from Zeyad today is truly disheartening:

http://www.healingiraq.blogspot.com/

We heard that a mosque in Hurriya was destroyed in an explosion early this morning, right after a National Guard unit had cleared the area according to residents, and the Dhat Al-Nitaqain mosque in Baghdad Al-Jedida was attacked last night at prayer time, killing 4 civilians and injuring over twenty. Some one blew up a mausoleum in Tikrit, where Saddam's father, Hussein Al-Majeed is buried. Other news of tit-for-tat mosque explosions and attacks. It's the latest fashion these days, and I wonder when they will start blowing up each other's houses.

snip

But Sadr's army is also searching for other, less conspicous targets now. A sign hanging on the fence of the British cemetery near Waziriya, Baghdad, reads something to the effect of "How long will we keep the graves of our enemies and occupiers on our soil?" Even the dead will not be spared, it seems.

There are several such cemeteries in Iraq. British cemeteries in Baghdad, Kut, Amara and Basrah. A cemetery for Indian colonial soldiers in Basrah, and another for Ottoman Turkish soldiers in Baghdad. Some famous figures of the British colonial era are buried there, such as Miss Gertrude Bell and General Stanley Maude.

The Forensic Institute (main morgue) in Baghdad is now reporting over 1300 Iraqis killed in the violence since last Wednesday.

Saddam's insignificant trial went on today. I didn't hear anyone mentioning it on the street. Why do they bother keeping up that charade? I would have cared if some other people today were standing trial. There was an arrest warrant issued for a certain young cleric, which the official Al-Iraqiya TV is now calling 'His Eminence, Sayyid Muqtada Al-Sadr, may Allah preserve his glory,' during newscasts.

I guess I am just sick and disgusted of it all.

Although Zeyad is specifically railing against al-Sadr (who I may remind you all, his militia are the ones who killed Casey Sheehan, Cindy's son), I can't help but be struck by the fact that Zeyad is a secular Sunni who is non-stop bashing Shi'ites. This is very disturbing because he is the last person you would think would fall under the spell of sectarian hatred, yet his posts speak for themselves . . .

Meanwhile, Iraq the Model (the sunny blog), has changed the subject to Saddam Hussein's trial. He has learned well from his RW readers, that when things are very bad, distract by changing the subject (I do like Omar, but come on -- there is ongoing violence, and you choose to talk about Saddam Hussein?). But at the beginning of the post, the details of his life tell you it's certainly not like ours:

http://www.iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/

I was just about to leave home to work when I heard a big bang… Uh, oh…I won't be able to reach the clinic today, I told Mohammed.
The explosion was probably less than a mile away so I knew the roads around us would be soon blocked. And minutes later I found they were.

I decided to go back to bed . . .

Yes, in Boston, you have snow days; in Iraq, there are bomb days.

Now how this post relates to Kerry -- sorry, a lot of his ideas, although good at the time, are simply out of date. For example, last spring ('05), he talked about using militias to secure neighborhoods. NO, NO, NO!!! Not going to work. He talked about putting Americans in a back garrison position (just this week), and have the Iraqis do the security work. Well, reading Zeyad's post, well . . . sometimes the Iraqi security forces are part of the problem, not the solution. What the HELL are we going to do????? Obviously, the Iraqis distrust the Americans, too, so I'm not suggesting we go backwards here, but from what I read, the Americans DID step up patrols last weekend to curb some violence. And now, we have to face facts that we have a Sunni insurgency problem AND we have a Shi'ite militia problem, sometimes engaging in death squad patrols under the interior ministry. In a nutshell: American patrols - bad. Iraqi forces patrols - also bad. I'm not sure this situation can be rectified . . . .

[Mass]

1. I am not on the ground and I do not know anything in FP

so I cant judge whether these guys are right or not (who are they, anyway?).

It is probable that using the militia would have been the things to do around the period where Kerry proposed it, but it may be too late for that at this point.

However, I more and more hope that they pull the troops out of there (either in garrison or out of country). There is absolutely no reason why the US troops should be in-between. The fact that * wants the troops to stay does not make it right, on the contrary. Actually, the other day, Kerry was proposing that the troops would go in garrison out of Iraq (Kuwait for example).

Nothing is perfect, but there is a big chance that the Iraqis may be better off solving their problems without US troops over there, but with the help of the Arab League or the UN.

[beachmom]

5. A little background on Zeyad and the Iraqi forces stories

First, Zeyad was happy when the U.S. came to oust Saddam Hussein, and a year ago he was very optimistic about Iraq and was especially heartened by the elections in January. If you have the time, you can check the archives on his blog to see this. He also has been vetted by the New York Times. He was featured in their Times Select section in January along with 3 other Iraqi bloggers. He certainly had become disillusioned by the American occupation after American troops threw his cousin in the river, and he drowned. But I find his posts to be credible, since I've read him on and off for over a year.

The death squad story was all over the MSM two weeks ago. Stories about the Iraqi forces are mixed in the MSM as well, where you may have some squads who are good where there are others which are very sectarian, so I don't think Zeyad's suspicion of Iraqi forces is earth shattering. But what I felt was the REAL story from Zeyad was how far he has gone in criticizing Shi'ites from a year ago. To be fair, he is not criticizing ALL Shi'ites, but as a moderate Sunni he feels threatened and had moments last week, where he was very afraid that they were going to come get him.

I'm not sure if this helps, but I do think that it is accurate to say that the "let's just train Iraqis" theme will no longer reassure me, even if said by John Kerry. As Tay Tay put down below, the point of not return has either come or is fast approaching.

[TayTay]

6. BTW, beachmom

I have read every word you have posted. Sometimes, there are no comments, the posts say it all. But I do want you to know that I have been reading these and trying to absorb as much as I can from them.

Thanks!

[beachmom]

7. Thanks, Tay Tay. That makes me feel good!

I actually feel a little like I'm breaking the rules talking about this in the JK forum, but I want to talk to YOU GUYS about this, not necessarily the entire DU population. Plus, I figure since JK is such a big FP person, I feel like talking about foreign affairs is ALWAYS Kerry related. But if I'm not supposed to do this, just let me know.

Anyway, you inspired me, Tay, so I went back over to dKos and added to my first post links to the Iraqi bloggers. Who knows? Maybe JK or perhaps his staff will take a peruse. At the least, other Kossaks can take a look. I also think that it's a little different perspective than just what is happening to our troops. Last I looked, Iraqis are human beings, too, and their deaths are just as devastating as ours.

[TayTay]

9. Iraq unhinges me.

It is a devastating thing to think about. When I read Riverbend, I just have nothing more to say. My Lord, those poor, poor people. In any war, it seems to me, there are partisans who are actively involved in the fighting. Then there are the vast majority of the people who are in harm's way and who get hurt. I think the majority of the Iraqi people are probably like the majority of the American people: they want to be safe, they want to send their kids to school, they want to have a normal life. These are the innocent bystanders who are suffering the most.

Again, thanks for posting this. It definitely belongs in here. (As you wrote, it's FP and that is completely relevent to this group.)

[TayTay]

2. All out civil war makes it an unworkable situation

in which all our options are not just bad but terrible and the cost to the Iraqi people is catastrophic. I think this is where we are. (I felt it the minute the story of the Mosque in Samarra came across the wires last week.)

Sen. Kerry knows this. See the transcript from the Imus show last Dec.

IMUS: Well, you know, of all of the people who we talked to on this program and all of the various people who have all of these ideas about a solution for Iraq, I don't hear any on -- just -- maybe, but I just don't hear any of it make any sense. I don't see any other thing happening other than we have this election, whatever that means, and we reached a point where it looks like we can save face by getting out of there.

We get out. It blows up. There's a civil war. And somebody's in charge, like Saddam Hussein. Tell me how that's...

KERRY: That's one possibility.

IMUS: Well, yes. Tell me why that's not realistic.

KERRY: It may well be. It may well be. But there is a different alternative. And the different alternative is that you do succeed in negotiating with the Sunnis, so you have a sufficient number of Sunnis who get oil revenues and guarantees about the national structure of Iraq which is currently at issue so that they buy in sufficiently that they isolate the Ba'athists who want to return to power.

Look, you've e got countries where -- look at northern Ireland, look at the Basques in Spain, look at the, you know, difficulties in parts of India and places. I mean, you've had struggles that go on for years and years, but you have a government and you have some semblance of stability.

I think there's a possibility of getting that out of Iraq. Now, whether we will or not is subject to this administration getting it right. And there's nothing in what they have done so far that suggests they will, because every time they've had a major choice, they've taken the wrong road here.

The Bush Admin didn't listen to anyone and tried to paint anyone who disagreed with them as nuts who were unpatriotic and defeatist. Now all the chickens have come home to roost.

I agree, this is the end of the 'make or break period.' It's broken. We cannot fix it, we can only be present while Iraq incinerates itself in civil war. Sigh! We need to get US troops out of there.

[karynnj]

3. Thanks for the blog posts

I agree with your summary - I agree with you that Kerry and others may have to publicly admit that the window of opportunity is gone. He has desperately pushed the administration to avoid the situation we are likely now in. The problem is there is no paltable solution right now.

Bush's "solution" will likely lead to civil war, with our soldiers trying to stop violence by both sides. This is far worse than Vietnam - where the corrupt government we were backing had little support and did little to help us. As the civil war heats up, reconciliation becomes less likely. The "political solution" Kerry (and others)have wanted the administration and Iraqi leaders to pursue has to be the solution becomes more remote. If it becomes so remote a possibility, the question is whether we reach the vN situation where the real sacrifices made by the soldiers could lead to no positive outcome that anyone could say were worth it.

The most positive thing last year, was the Arab league (largely Sunni)suggesting a solution where they attempted to leverage their dominance in the regin to get some minority rights for the Sunnis. Their reasoning sounded comatible with Kerry's. They also wanted the US out within 2 years. In November, the articles spoke of them working on a more specific plan early this year - I wonder if they have.

The only way out might be if some agreement is reached by the Arab League (representing the Sunni Arab world) and Iran and they put their huge difference aside and push to restrain their co-religionists. The one thing they would both likely agree on is that the US needs to leave. Both Iran and the Arab League could be hurt by Iraq in flames. (Iran will have gained vs 2001, as the resultant Iraq government will be more pro-Iran than Hussain's Iraq which at least in the 80s was anti-Iran). This at a different level is a "political solution".

In a civil war, an outside army that can't speak Arabic, would be useless other than in maintaining curfews or maintaining peopleless areas as buffers between the two groups - which gets back to the free fire zones in Vietnam. What do you do with places like Baghdad, where both exist. The garison idea makes more sense, but it's hard to see what missions (out of the garrisons) they could do.

[TayTay]

4. Agreed.

It is a political solution without the US. We have to get out and allow other parties with credibility to take over.

For the record, I think Sen. Kerry was right in his approach. But, of course, the Bushies didn't listen to him or anyone else who actually knew what they were talking about. (That makes me feel worse. We had those 'voices of reason' and this Admin deliberately didn't listen becuase they believed their own bullshit and refused to listen to alternative and sane views.)

All wars end with either total capitualtion and defeat or with some sort of political arrangement. Usually that happens after terrible carnage and suffering. I increasingly think it will happen without 'us' directly involved.

[karynnj]

10. The Arab League is opening an Iraq office

This may be the first speck of good news.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2145807

[beachmom]

8. Fox News has now announced that there IS no civil war!!

Got this via HuffPost:

http://thinkprogress.org/2006/03/01/fox-media-civil-war/

Fox News continues it’s crackerjack analysis of sectarian strife in Iraq. Previously, it explored whether “an all-out civil war in Iraq” could be “a good thing.”

Now they have a new theory. Moments ago on Fox:

"Civil War" in Iraq: Made up in the media?

Better throw the Iraqi bloggers (including RW favorites like Iraq the Model) in the mix for this great conspiracy. Unbelievable (or maybe VERY believable for Fox)! And what is sad is the people who watch Fox and believe everything told to them.

And, by the way, ThinkProgress repeated about the same figure as from Zeyad -- 1500 dead.