And..............they're off . . . .

[whometense]

Chuck Todd of Hotline has the latest 2008 handicap up, and it'll make your head spin.

His top repukes:

1. John McCain
2. George Allen
3. Mitt Romney
4. Mike Huckabee
5. Newt Gingrich

If that isn't enough for ya, here are his dem picks:

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Mark Warner
3. John Edwards
4. Evan Bayh and
5. Bill Richardson

If he knows anything, I may yet be contemplating that long-postponed move to Quebec. Tim Grieve at Salon adds this:

The rest are, well, the rest. Among them: John Kerry and Bill Frist, two men Todd sees in a race for who can lose the most "buzz" first.

If Todd's early predictions hold up, the Democrats could be in for a bummer all around. We're still a long way away, but recent polls show McCain with a double-digit lead over Clinton in an imaginary 2008 matchup. And a new George Washington University Battleground 2006 Poll finds that voters around the country hold the senator from Arizona in much higher regard than they do the senator from New York. McCain's favorable-unfavorable ratings are 65-18; Clinton's are an upside-down 45-51.

Let me just add that I think this is a pile of crap. But if the dems nominate HRC when she's got those kind of approval ratings nationwide, I'll eat my hat.

And bloggers, let's get to work on those McCain approval ratings...

[Mass]

1. Chuck Todd - Just say his name and I go hiding.

Can we do more insider than him?

[whometense]

2. I know.

I almost didn't post it at all.

But it's sort of interesting to read what he says about each person. I don't believe he's got much of anything right, but I think he definitely thinks the way the DC insiders think, and that makes his predictions interesting from the point of view of what the blathering heads will be saying.

Bet he'll be on Hardball tonight or tomorrow...

[Mass]

3. This seems very contradictory with KG post

If he is so out of the game, how does he succeed in raising that much money for other candidates. Ti seems to me that Todd has fallen for the Democrat Commandment: "Thou shall not be a NorthEastern Senator". (Richardson, Bayh, Warner? None of them gets more than 5 % in the polls. He ignores Kerry who rates at least 3 times more than the other ones a fading fast? The fact that Edwards is before him in the polls is laughable. Has he never heard of MOE? This is typically a tie between Kerry, Edwards (and Gore, when he is in the list. Can you say name recognition?).

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=273x73875

BTW, Feingold does not make the list at all, interesting!

[WildEyedLiberal]

4. I really don't think Feingold has a prayer

He's a nice guy and I like his solid liberal credentials, but I don't think he has a prayer of pulling more than third or fourth in a primary. His record is basically like Kerry's, only he's missing the personal gravitas and presidential stature of Kerry. He just doesn't have a gram of the prescence or charisma or innate ability to lead that Kerry does. I think he's principled, but I seriously cannot envision him as a strong executive leader. I think he's a superb senator and hope he's in the Senate for a very long time, but president? No.

[Mass]

5. I am not that sure. Anyway, compared to the other ones in the list,

he is head and shoulders above them (except for Kerry, of course).

What you say of him looks like what some of Kerry's non supporters are saying (those who dont want to be Kerry bashing). Obviously, we do not see Kerry the same way they do. Some people may not see Feingold the same way we do (though he is my strong second with nobody else even close, so I may be biased).

[karynnj]

8. Also, I think that Feingold will project his record as being to the left

of Kerry's, emphasizing the Patriot act and the IWR vote. I assume Kerry will, without attacking, make a case for what was good in the Patriot act and why it was better to enact the better compromise bill than to keep delaying while the atrocious ascpects of the original bill remain in place.

If you compare what Kerry and Feingold did in their Iraq bills, Kerry just had more substance. Also, Kerry will hopefully be able to explain his credentials on terrorism better than in 2004.

I do agree that Kerry is more Presidential.

[FreedomAngel82]

39. Intresting on Feingold

But what I found intresting is recently on thedemocraticdaily.com I believe it was that had Kerry more liberal than Feingold and the most searched democrat on the internet. I found that interesting.

[karynnj]

6. The Democratic list is pretty weird

Bill Richardson always seems to be put on these lists - but there seems nothing to recommend him to be President. He has no real appeal or strong suit and he has baggage.

Seeing that he didn't even put Kerry on the list, saying he's in a race with Frist to lose the most buzz makes no sense - as they've given him no credit for buzz for a year. My candidate for that would be Warner, who already seems to be cooling down - with some non-impressive Sunday performances. (Frist might be the right Republican choice, but I would pick Romney. He's had a set of high profile puff pieces, but I think people will see through him.

I really don't see Edwards taking it. He has nothing he didn't have in 2004. People rejected him then based on lack of substance, though they liked his perceived personality. His convention speech was a disappointment - his standard (focus group tested) stump speech that he didn't deviate from may have been the basis of his whole effort. His debate wasn't impressive - and left an image of being a bit unsubstancial. I really don't see how he improves on 2004.

The biggest mystery is why Feingold is left out. There is no one from the whole left to center of the party. As Clinton will at least start out as a big power, it would seem that the openning will be on the left. I think Feingold will be a slightly more successful version of Kuchinich. From the list the only one who really could fill in the space between Clinton and Feingold is Kerry. (I also think that's the spot to be - which may be why Edwards - contrary to his short record - is trying to move there.)

[wisteria]

12. OMG, it just came to me the names on the Dem side are mostly

DLCer's-except for Edwards and maybe they think he is the left leaner.

[karynnj]

14. Edwards was a DLC candidate and isn't now because he's not in office.

He wasn't a liberal in his real years in the Senate. (2004 was pretty distorted because he and Kerry missed a lot of votes - and those were the routine ones. I do think Edwards is trying to speak that way.

[FreedomAngel82]

42. Right

I noticed that too. How funny that is! You should post this in Gd. I get so tired of the "DLC hated Dean and loved Kerry" crap!

[FreedomAngel82]

41. I agree

I think a Kerry/Feingold or Kerry/Warner team would be good. I have seen Warner on "Road to the White House" two/three times and while he seems like an alright person and has an intresting background I think he needs to really get a new speech and a new way of telling about himself. It's the same one over and over. I always enjoy listening to Kerry. Even today as an adult his words, to me anyways, are still like poetry like in his youth.
Lots of people have been rooting and talking about Feingold running and I remember seeing an interview with him and he was asked about that and he jokingly said it's about time we had a Cheesehead president. :) He has a nice personality, is smarter than myself (which is always a plus) and he knows when to be professional. I think he would be a great Vp personally.
I think Kerry has a bit more experience than Feingold in the senate. I personally put experience over everything else.

[whometense]

7. I didn't even notice at first,

but over on the left side of the page there's a place titled "Reader
Rankings" where you can rank the candidates for yourself. Kerry's on the list, so let's go FREEP THAT BABY!!!!

I voted:

1. Kerry
2. Feingold
3. Gore

and that's it.

There was only one republican I could list at all -

1, Hagel

the rest are beneath notice.

[karynnj]

11. It appears to allow multiple votes

I thought you had to fill all

so I did
1 Hagel
2-5 all the currently weakest - in different orders

1 Kerry
2-5 all the current weakest - in different orders

[Dr Ron]

9. Only one really bad assumption

Most likely he gives Kerry no chance because of how rare it has been for candidates to get a second shot, but we all know reasons why this isn't necessarily true for 2008.

Add Kerry after Hilary and the Democratic list is ok. I'm not sure about the exact ranking for lower spots, but this far such predictions don't mean much anyways. While I'd pick Hilary 1st and Kerry second, much can change to affect either's chances.

The Republican list isn't bad, although I'm surprised Romney is so high. I agree with McCain and Allen as 1st and 2nd, also considering that much can change there. The biggest question with McCain is whether he can get the support of the far right, and if not whether they can stop him with all the favorable publicity he has been getting. I also wonder if his will face the same problem as Dean--being considered a straight shooter by the press. One not-so-straight comment and the press can totally turn on such candidates.

[karynnj]

13. But McCain's had plenty of not so straight turns

but they go unrecognized.

I agree with you. I do think that this week shows part of the dynamics.

The party clearly put Hillary, Schumer and Menendez as the point people on the port issue. They likely should have added Kerry, as he spoke of port safety daily.

Clearly this was intended to help Hillary. But, Kerry's position - emphasizing the cronyism and the negligence in the process, avoids the stridency of Schumer and Hillary.

But, when the facts become available and are examined - Kerry will likely do some TV - he then has his current position (which will still be true), the fact that he spoke daily on port security in 2004, and all his knowledge of the relationships between terrorism and the UAE.

Hillary's demand for legislation to get the 45 day review was in essence undercut by Bill's recommendation to the UAE to voluntarily have the investigation - while the deal really goes through. (That they are getting the money is known, but are any of their people getting reports from the people still working there - if yes and it becomes known this could blow up in Bill's face.) It also makes Hillary and Schumer's demands to still have the legislation seem weird.

The other problem is that Bill had a million positive comments on the UAE - if we find it is a risk, those comments feed people who say it was racism. He also said that the ports shouldn't be run by foreign governments/ I assume he wants people to ignore that he said governments rather than just companies - because the Clinton administration approved the British company, which was not a government. Still parsing words, he is.

The point is that while Bill is her biggest asset, he's also her biggest liability. Kerry also has the advantage that he has always done what he thinks is right and (I think) is too honest to misrepresent a change in view as Clinton just did.

[Dr Ron]

15. Going unrecognized is the key

So far McCain hasn't been called on anything he has said and is called a straight shooter by the media. I'm not sure if he can continue getting away with as a candidate. If he does, then he will be hard to beat unless the right wing is very upset with him and very well organized. So far it looks like he is doing a good job of patching things up with the right wing to the point that I'm not sure they will unite enough to stop him.

It also helps McCain that there are multiple candidates identified with the right wing running to split the vote (not that McCain isn't really a right winger himself).

[wisteria]

25. I agree with you. McCain has been courting the base of his party.

He has been on easy street when he goes on the media news shows. All mostly fluff and he gets to look like the great guy. In a way, he has been running since 2000. I can't imagine he won't have to take some heat,from the media -just to make it look fair and balanced if nothing else, but it wouldn't come from Hillary- Kerry could give it to him, but not her. Personally, she has never had to run a hard race. I wonder how she will even fair?

[wisteria]

10. This poll stinks. I just don't buy it. This is designed to discourage

Kerry supporters and Kerry. I would never lump Kerry into the same category as Frist. Warner is the to candidate to go with for a "win"?Why would they think he could win? Simply based on four years in VA? Edwards? He isn't even in the loop any longer and HE has traveled around the country- what about Kerry? Kerry has been out fund raising for other candidate's all over the country. Oh and Hillary, we know what she is doing to raise money for 2008- collecting it now in the guise of needing it for her 2006 race. Oh, and I like the one where when the Republicans pick at her, her numbers go up, especially this month. Now for Richardson, why has he been all of a sudden placed on the radar screen? This is a head in the sand poll.

Oh, and Kerry has a lot of buzz, they just don't hear it with their head buried in the sand.

Oh, and McCain- yuck.

[ProSense]

16. What about Richardson's

baseball story? Biden isn't there. These people make me laugh with their predictions.

Remember the DCCC survey? I guess we can believe the backlash came from this group only. LOL!

[wisteria]

18. Yeah, how about that story, I forgot about it. n/t

[jillan]

17. This is ridiculous. It is way too early!

We haven't even gotten to the midterms yet.
After we see how those turn out, then we can make predictions.


Two things about McCain-
1. He is one repug that has not even questioned the Dubai port deal. Even the cat killer knew better than that. That is something the dems can throw in his face.
2. If the worst thing happens, and McCain wins, things will be better than they are now. So of all the rpugs that are running, I hope it comes down to Hagel and McCain (in that order).

[karynnj]

19. Kerry's #4

But it's so badly designed you can hit back and revote! These internet polls where there anyone can vote are ridiculous. (It's now Edwards, Hillary, Warner , Kerry , Gore) and the lowest score is an average of 3.6 or so. )

[TayTay]

20. It's too early.

And the Washington Post had Kerry in the top five just weeks ago. And that doesn't matter either. Nothing matters this far out.

But my oh my, he sure can raise money for other candidates. That should count for something.

[wisteria]

21. Thanks Tay Tay for weighing in. It is frustrating to see these polls

that totally discredit his popularity and elect-ability. I have just got done watching a "lovely" CNN story on Hillary based on this poll. All the usuals were there, Begala, Carvelle, Brazille- either praising Hillary or discrediting Gore and Kerry as being negative. In fact, this was the only time Kerry was mentioned and in a negative way.
can do it all.She can win over major party groups and best of all women will be voting for her in droves.
The best was when Brazille said that Gore and Kerry ran negative campaigns and the party will not go that way again.Oh, Hillary is so positive.This was definitely designed to be a real DLC hatchet job on Kerry. Ignore him and only mention him as negative and a has been.Warner was mentioned as running 2nd. All of this does not endear me to Senator Clinton.

Oh, but gee, how about that he can raise a lot of money, but that doesn't matter. From now on, Kerry is getting whatever I give exclusively-period.

[karynnj]

22. This group proves it - Hillary will get the support of all the woman

in the country, why would any of us vote for Kerry?

Seriously, I wonder if it's primarily Democratic women who as time went on felt betrayed by Bill Clinton. I really think that is transferable to Hillary. Kerry's sincerity and honesty are qualities that contrast very nicely with this.

[wisteria]

23. I can't speak for other women, but I was offended at B. Clinton's

behavior and I even resented NOW for letting him off easy. My feelings about Senator Clinton are based on what I feel are her shortcomings. Right now, I really resent her. I hate to say this, but I almost dislike her as much as Bush. So, this is one women that will be struggling in 2008 if she is the candidate.
Her only appeal is that her husband was a likable President.

[TayTay]

27. Brazille, Carville and Begala all will be working for Sen.. Clinton

if she does run. (I still think that is an open question.) There should be a disclosure requirement for consultants when they go on TV, maybe a scrawl at the bottom of the screen that says, "these are hired guns. Take whatever they say with a grain of salt."

There are two distinct strains of thought within the Democratic Party for how to proceed. David Broder had a column in today's Washington Post that said that the country wants a 'uniter and not a divider' and that the party that selects the person who can tack toward the mushy middle will win the vote in both '06 and '08. Broder is discounting substance in favor of appearing to have substance and the ability to not offend anyone. (I don't look for 'the ability to not offend anyone' as a criterion when I select a candidate but I might be old-fashioned.)

Gore's numbers went up when he went negative on Bush and also went Dem populist on the issues. Gore split with Clinton on economic policy and on the emphasis on appealing to traditional Dem voters with traditional Dem concerns: jobs, economic security, health care and so forth. (Al From of the DLC was livid about this. Al From doesn't like the traditional Dem base and would like to trade them in for a whiter and more middle and upper class base.)

John Kerry's numbers went up when he acted like, well, John Kerry. I heard it throughout the year, but the convention should have been MORE red meatish and not tried to be 'nice.' I loved, loved, loved the speeches after the one at NYU that basically took Bush apart for his Iraq War stance and for other things. Dammit, Kerry's numbers went up when he 'went negative.' Kerry's numbers went up after the debates when he clearly was in opposition to what Bush was doing, not trying to be upbeat and positive. Remember, that? Anyone remember that? He killed when he spoke his mind, said what he thought and let the chips fall where they may. (And that was the true Kerry anyway. People should be themselves and not some false creation that people see through anyway.)

If Hillary is going to run a positive campaign, she will have a historic loss. People are not stupid. They know their paychecks aren't going up, their schools aren't getting any better, their jobs are being outsourced overseas and that the War in Iraq is not going well. They see an Administration that refuses to admit any wrongdoing or failures and is overwhelmingly rejecting that. I think Americans are not tacking 'to the mushy middle' but want some people to tell them what the hell is really going on. I think a candidate that does that will have traction, no matter what the insiders and people who don't want to rock the boat say. That's my take from talking to people out in the 'real world.'

[ProSense]

28. Seriously, how does

Carville live with the hypocrisy that is his life? While he's supporting Hillary Clinton, Mrs. Carville will be focused on Scooter's defense.

[TayTay]

29. I think he has 'jumped the shark'

and I really just find him unpleasant now. He always looks like he just got done sucking a lemon. And his clients lose races.

[karynnj]

30. He just looks like a grasshopper to me

in sort of a demented "Alice in Wonderland" way. I didn't realize he had run any campaigns lately. I think both he and Begala let Clinton's wins go to their head.

[wisteria]

31. Your right, a political consultant's affiliation should be noted when

they are debating the merits of that particular candidate, otherwise, it looks like propaganda- which I think this all is. It strikes me as more than a coincidence that all this new Hillary push comes after her much publicized stance on the ports issue. She again looks to me to be an opportunist and not genuine. I just don't like them marginalizing Kerry for her benefit and the benefit of other DLC candidates. You are also correct, that in the "real world" people are seeing things differently. Even my mother- a staunch Republican, said she wouldn't mind Kerry as President. Hillary she can't stand and McCain, well she has been brainwashed by the media to believe he is a true maverick. I am chipping away at that image she has of him though.

[karynnj]

24. Here's one of the stranger profiles

agsin I can't disagree with them more more:

"We're starting to wonder whether Biden will ever be treated fairly by members of the press -- who are more interested in jumping on his loquacious style than on what he says. We're suckers for a Biden speech and don't get bored -- apparently we're alone. "

He's on every Sunday - how fair do they want it.

[wisteria]

26. Yeah, just about evey Sunday and at least one weekday too. n/t

[JI7]

32. Newt Gingrich ? HAHHAHAHAHHAHA

[karynnj]

33. They got rid of the Democratic result!

I guess they didn't appreciate the candidate who got a huge groundswell of support.

[whometense]

34. JK's at number one

in the reader's poll. Nice going, everyone! :-)

Now, about that buzz?

[wisteria]

35. How do we go about changing his ranking of 3.8? It is lower than

all the others.

[wisteria]

36. Tay Tay, did you read Romney's profile? This "pollster" has

a problem with the state of Mass and he even references, voted for before voting against- abortion. Romney must be pissed- especially since we know how much he loves JK.

[Mass]

37. The more you chose him as 1rst, the lowest his ranking goes .

[wisteria]

44. Oh, I would have never thought about that. Thanks! n/t

[karynnj]

40. low is good

It's the average of his position over all the entries. If everyone had him as 1 - it would be 1. Those non in the top 5 in the individual surveys are likely given a "6" in the average.

[karynnj]

43. Thank you for noticing that there was this poll

maybe this and the "Fun for Kerry lovers" one can be voted on. I think the huge Clark support on the web is manufactored this way - and it ends up being seen as real. (Note what they say about Feingold here -where they say Wes is the favorite of the net roots.)

[FreedomAngel82]

38. Oh brother

They wouldn't want Kerry again for whatever purposes but he's still a very popular democrat campaigning for all sorts of vets. Even a guy running in my district has a picture of him meeting Kerry when he was in DC last month.

[wisteria]

45. i don't think they like the fact that he is so popular. Their candidates

pale in comparison.

[karynnj]

46. Needs help

Looks like the Warner fans were busy