Charlie Cook reviews "competitive" Congressional districts per Polidata's

[papau]

(Polidata's Clark Bensen's) preliminary compilation of presidential results by each of the 435 congressional districts.

The new results show President Bush won the popular vote in 255 congressional districts, a 75-seat edge over Sen. John Kerry's 180 congressional districts.

This data also confirm long-standing conventional wisdom that there are fewer and fewer competitive seats left in Congress. While this is bad news for Democrats in that it means the political playing field is structurally difficult to expand, it also means that Republicans are unlikely to build a significant majority.

The unprecedented partisan loyalty displayed by voters in picking a president was also reflected at the congressional level. In only 59 districts (or 13 percent of House seats) did voters split their tickets between the presidential candidate of one party and the congressional candidate of the other.

For Democrats, there is even more bad news in these numbers. Forty-one (almost 70 percent) of these 59 "ticket-splitting" districts were won by President Bush and are currently held by Democrats; Kerry won just 18 districts held by a Republican incumbent. Not surprisingly, half (21) of the Bush districts held by Democratic House incumbents are in the South, while a little more than half (10) of the Kerry districts held by Republican House incumbents are located in the Northeast.

The 10 Democrats sitting in the most Republican districts by Bush percentage are: Chet Edwards, Texas-17, Gene Taylor, Miss.-04, Jim Matheson, Utah-02, Ike Skelton, Mo.-04, Earl Pomeroy, N.D.-01, Bud Cramer, Ala.-05, Stephanie Herseth, S.D.-01, Bart Gordon, Tenn.-06, Rick Boucher, Va.-09, and Dan Boren, Okla.-02.

The 10 Republicans sitting in the most Democratic districts are: Jim Leach, Iowa-02, Rob Simmons, Conn.-02, Michael Castle, Del.-01, Mark Kirk, Ill.-10, Jim Nussle, Iowa-01, Curt Weldon, Pa.-07, Chris Shays, Conn.-04, Clay Shaw, Fla.-22, Charlie Bass, N.H.-02, and Jim Gerlach, Pa.-06.

Of course, just because an incumbent sits in the "wrong" district doesn't mean that the member is inherently vulnerable. After all, many of these incumbents are politically popular and have proven time and again that they can defeat well-funded challengers. Of the 18 Republicans sitting in seats won by Kerry, all but three -- Castle, Weldon and Walsh -- have faced competitive races in the last four cycles. More than half of the 41 Democrats have seen significant challenges in the recent past. The notable exceptions are Reps. Skelton and Taylor who sit in districts that gave Bush 64 percent and 68 percent, respectively.

Historically, the number of these "ticket splitting" districts is at an all-time low. In 1992, 103 districts were in this category. In 1996, the number jumped a bit to 110 but decreased in 2000 to 86. In 2002, there were only 63 seats in this category.

This has created a very narrow "trading range" for competitive House seats, with the bulk of districts safely ensconced in the hands of one party or the other. Not only does this change the nature of House elections, but it has also changed the way Congress looks and acts. When Democrats controlled the House from 1961 until 1994, they never dipped below 243 seats and got as high as 295. This allowed the leadership to give members a much freer range than Republicans can afford their members today. Since taking over the House in 1994, Republicans have never had more than 232 seats. This obviously requires a level of discipline that House Democrats never had to deal with during their long reign.

Also interesting to note is the large number of districts where both Bush and Kerry outperformed the 2000 results. This is likely due to the Herculean GOTV effort by both sides in the 2004 election, though Bush outpaced Kerry substantially in this category. Bush won 68 districts by a bigger percentage (four points or more) than he did in 2000, while Kerry outperformed Gore by four points or more in just 24 districts that they both won.

Redistricting can explain some of the change between the 2000 and 2004 results. Still, Kerry underperformed in many states where redistricting did not make appreciable partisan changes to the congressional districts. For example, Kerry underperformed Gore in 15 of the 31 California congressional districts both won, in all but three of Massachusetts' 10 CDs, and 13 of the 20 seats both Gore and Kerry won in New York.

Despite the House's traditional role as the political equivalent of the "canary in a coal mine," the polarized political environment has insulated House incumbents and the body from substantial change. Neither side is likely to build up any sort of sizeable majority, which puts a premium on loyalty and discipline to get anything done.

TO MODS - COOK SAYS HE WANTS THIS GIVEN AWAY TO ONE AND ALL - so the above cut and paste is long - but with permission.