WSJ Nat'l Poll shows DU's"Iraq withdrawal within a year" will win 06 races

[papau]

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB114246476954299393-alYHYm4HP_erGRYKkvEI5GKvydk_20070315.html

Growing Anxiety About Iraq Threatens Republicans

Bush Approval Rating Hits
A Low as War Pessimism
Offers Edge for Democrats
By JOHN HARWOOD
March 16, 2006; Page A4

WASHINGTON -- <snip>Public sentiment about the war isn't uniformly negative. By 47%-27%, Americans embrace one of Mr. Bush's central arguments: that the Iraq conflict has strengthened the war against terrorism the U.S. launched after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Pluralities also say the war has strengthened Iraq as a nation, advanced democracy in the Middle East, and enhanced the overall security of the U.S.

Yet respondents also say by 50%-28% that the war has weakened America's standing in the world, and by 44%-18% that it has increased the potential threat from Iran. Weeks after the bombing of a Shiite mosque led to more civil strife in Iraq, a 52% majority says the U.S. has achieved as much as can be expected.

The pollsters say violence in Iraq and the Dubai ports controversy have magnified the war's political drag -- the former by increasing fears of civil war, the latter by deepening perceptions that Mr. Bush lacks flexibility to change course. The survey of 1,005 adults, conducted March 10-13, shows that a congressional candidate favoring withdrawal of all U.S. troops within a year would gain favor by a 50%-35%, while one who advocates staying "as long as necessary" would lose favor by 43%-39%. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points<snip>

[fasttense]

1. Bush's* polls go down and they say it's a good thing. Spin, spin

spin.

[LynnTheDem]

2. 47% of Americans are dirt-ignorant.

FACTS that 47% of Americans should know and don't;

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=81400

[goodriddance]

3. interesting

nifty

[PJ Puryear]

4. Numbers can be tricky

In North Carolina, 58% disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq and nearly the same percentage are thinking the W word (withdrawal), yet when asked the question 'Do you trust the President to do what is right for the country?' 58% of North Carolinians still say yes! It seems to me there is some disconnect, but the matter of the fact is that the numbers can be tricky. With a 3% margin on the poll mentioned above, that puts a generic 'withdrawal' candidate at only 4% above the 'as long as necessary' candidate. That is also a nationwide poll, which are hard to square with congressional districts.

With polling like this, it is necessary to look at the crosstabs to truly gauge how the information is useful. There you can see the urban vs. rural breakdown, etc.

In the end, if a candidate backs withdrawal for polling reasons, that is one closer to withdrawal, but dissapointing nevertheless.