NYT on why Dems may make few gains in Ohio in 06

[papau]

"Ken Blackwell is going to come at Congressman Strickland with rhetoric that will be totally unlike anything we've ever seen....attacks on Mr. Brown's ideology (supports abortion rights, opposed the constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage and voted against the war in Iraq) would compensate ...for a difficult atmosphere for Republicans....(Ney's Abramoff) corruption issue is not the top issue. Voters...are focused on jobs, health care, gas prices and immigration."


http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/07/washington/07ohio.html

Early Intensity Underlines Role of Races in Ohio

COLUMBUS, Ohio, May 6 — For the Democratic Party, the road back to power in Washington begins here in Ohio. But as long-dominant Ohio Republicans struggle with a corruption scandal, economic distress and rising voter unease, Democrats face a challenge in making the state a launching pad to seize control of Congress and the White House, leaders of both parties say.<snip>

But Democratic hopes of knocking out a third Republican, Representative Bob Ney, who has been linked to the Jack Abramoff corruption investigation, were set back when the Democrats' favored candidate, Mayor Joe Sulzer of Chillicothe, lost to a lesser-known and politically inexperienced challenger, Zack Space.<snip>

In many ways, the political environment here mirrors the national one, with its brew of economic anxiety, corruption and voter weariness with one-party dominance. Beyond corruption and worry about Iraq, the contests in Ohio are shaping up as a face-off between two powerful forces in American politics: economic issues, led by job loss, trade and health care worries; and social issues, notably abortion, same-sex marriage and gun control.<snip>

"Republicans are going to try to shift attention away from these economic issues and move the focus to social issues like abortion and gay marriage to fire up their base, but I don't think its going to work like it did in 2004," he(Brown) said. "People in Ohio are seeing now how corruption affects their pocketbook and how gas prices go up when a party corruptly allows oil companies to set policy, and how Medicare becomes impossible when you allow the pharmaceutical companies to dictate policy."<snip>

[AX10]

1. So Diebold will give the election to the REpugs then?

[papau]

2. I do not understand why the NYT is warning us - even saying Dems in Ohio

agree --- ???????

Diebold - or just election theft - did come to mind.

[Bill McBlueState]

3. framing the debate

This exchange is troubling:

"We will both be asked to defend our positions on abortion, on marriage, on a whole host of issues, and people will be able to see how he measures up to their values," Mr. Blackwell said. "Strickland will probably underestimate and underappreciate the degree to which my vision connects with a broad base of Ohioans."

Mr. Strickland said he would prefer to talk about economic issues. "That would be wonderful," he said.

But, he said: "I am prepared to respond to whatever attacks come from him in these areas. I don't think most people in Ohio believe these are the issues that are central to the responsibilities of being governor."

From this it sounds like Srickland is going to let Blackwell decide what the issues are going to be and spend his time responding to attacks. That's a losing strategy. If Strickland wants to talk about economic issues, he should make the campaign be about economic issues. Go on the offensive.

Also, I reject the Republicans' notion that Brown's stances on abortion, marriage equality, and the Iraq war are out of the mainstream. On abortion and the war, most Americans and most Ohioans agree with him. And while marriage equality has minority support, ~40% is certainly not out of the mainstream.

[simonm]

4. Follow Paul Hackett

If Dems follow Paul Hackett's campaign methods they can win. I think his pro gun stance was very interesting. We can get a lot of Repub votes on the gun issue alone.