Does Senate control rest on Dem's taking 2 of 3 from Missouri/Tenn/Ohio?

[papau]

I agree with http://bobgeiger.com/ statement that the starting point is 47 Republicans and 39 Democrats assuming the GOP carry NV with John Ensign (R-NV) in a close race - and this seems likely (8/06 WSJ poll has Ensign at 48 percent to 45 percent for Carter).

Gieger's "givens" are
Daniel Akaka (D–HI)
Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)
Thomas Carper (D-DE)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
Kent Conrad (D-ND)
Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
Edward Kennedy (D-MA)
Herb Kohl (D-WI)
Ben Nelson (D-NE)
Bill Nelson (D-FL)
Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
John Ensign (R-NV)
Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
Kay Hutchison (R-TX)
Trent Lott (R-MS)
Richard Lugar (R-IN)
Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
Craig Thomas (R–WY)

But tonight Hardball was selling the 2 out of 3 idea. Is that idea credible?

[MADem]

1. What about the Webb-Howdy Doody, er, Allen matchup?

That's turned into a load of macaca, when it was Allen's in a stroll once upon a time.

We'll have to see what the guy says after the long weekend, and how he handicaps the other races. He's a clever writer.

Of course, who knows who else will step in macaca between now and election day?

[papau]

2. LOL - stepping in macaca is indeed the unkown factor! n/t

:-)

[rightwingsucks]

3. Will go Democrat

Will go Democrat.

[TucsonGreen]

4. The fact that Kyl is not a "given"

Shows just how bad off the Repubs are.

Think about it...a Republican nominee who is not a crazy Mormon fundamentalist (that's how Goddard and Napolitano won - even the Phoenicians couldn't stomach those Repub whackjobs) in Arizona and he's NOT a "given?"

I hope it all comes down as the handicappers are predicting!

[FogerRox]

5. I dunno. I have seen a lot of trending to DEMS

Rassmusen says:

....control of the Senate will be determined in the six Toss-Up races--Tennessee, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Ohio, Missouri, and Montana. With the exception of New Jersey, all of the Toss-Up races represent Senate seats currently held by Republicans.

Maccaca led to a 20 pt swing.. looks very DEM

Ford looks good in Tenn...... looks very DEM

Chaffee vs Whitehouse... ? .. could be DEM

Ohio-- Brown vs Dewine...... looks be DEM

rassmusen has Brown up 2 pts. & has Brown trending up for most of the year

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/ohioSenate.htm

Missouri ..McCaskill up by 3 pts.. could be DEM

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/MissouriSenate.htm

Penn. Santorum........... looks very DEM

Montana.. been a toss up all year

NJ.. toss up.. DEM currently down.......

Minn. Klobuchar 47% has led since April lloks very DEM

The Maryland seat looks to be DEM

Possible Dem wins over incumbant Repubs

Brown in Ohio .....Wins
McCaskill Missouri.Wins
Casey in Penn .....Wins
Ford in Tenn ......Wins
Klobuchar in Minn. Wins
Webb in Virginia...Wins

Could be a DEM win

NJ
RI
Montana