The Wall Street Journal
Infighting Worries Democrats
Split Between Backers Of Clinton and Obama Lifts Republican Hopes
By JONATHAN KAUFMAN
March 11, 2008; Page A4
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About 75% of Republicans say they are satisfied with Sen. McCain, compared with 24% who say they are dissatisfied, according to an analysis of February and March exit polls by Public Opinion Strategies, which conducts the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll. Among Democrats, 71% said they would be satisfied if Sen. Clinton becomes the nominee, while 28% said they would be dissatisfied; roughly the same number, 70%, would be satisfied with Sen. Obama; 29% dissatisfied. Although Sen. McCain is benefiting from having clinched the nomination, there is a marked change from January, when 81% of the Democrats said they were satisfied with their candidates, compared with 57% of Republicans who said they were happy with their field.
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That isn't likely to change soon. In Mississippi, which votes today and where polls show Sen. Obama holding a substantial lead, about 12% of Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton, while 20% say they would never vote for Sen. Obama... Until recently, Democrats were buoyed by record fund-raising and record turnout in the primaries and by the belief that divisions among Republicans, especially between social conservatives and moderates like Sen. McCain, would weaken the party's chances in November. Now, however, Democrats are confronting cracks among groups seen crucial to victory in November. Blacks, women and young voters all could play key roles in what is expected to be a close general election. Sen. McCain has also signaled his intention to compete for the Hispanic vote based on his support of immigration change and to woo blue-collar voters who have voted frequently for Republicans.
Black radio talk shows are ablaze with callers saying they will stay home in November if Sen. Clinton wins the nomination. Warren Ballentine, a nationally syndicated show host, says he has been flooded with calls and emails from African-Americans saying they won't vote for Sen. Clinton... While few believe Sen. McCain will win large numbers of African-American voters, a fall in turnout would hurt. "Black voters are very similar to evangelicals," says Keli Goff, a black political analyst. If there's not an acceptable candidate, "we're more likely to stay home."
Anger is also appearing among women supporting Sen. Clinton. Connie Swanson, a teacher in Fort Worth, Texas, voted for Sen. Clinton in the primary and tried to recruit friends to caucus for her. "If Obama gets it, I'm voting Republican," she says. "I've watched all the debates, and I honestly don't get it. He's like a fantasy." Betty Fung, a graduate student in Washington who supports Sen. Clinton, complains "the attacks on Hillary from the Obama side tend to be very personal attacks. They are not attacking her policies, they are attacking who she is." If Sen. Clinton wins the nomination, Ms. Fung says, she would volunteer to travel to other states to campaign for her. If Sen. Obama is the nominee, "I might help out locally -- if I had the time."
Supporters of Sen. Clinton also worry about young voters, male and female, who have turned out in large numbers for Sen. Obama. "Young students for Obama could stay home; that's one reason I am so furious at them," says Fran Reiter, former deputy mayor of New York and a Clinton supporter. "They are all excited about him, and they don't have any staying power. If Obama doesn't get the nomination, do they get angry again and crawl back into their apathetic hole?"
Republicans are gleeful.
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--Amy Chozick, Elizabeth Holmes and Nick Timiraos contributed to this article.
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