2010 Election Forecast

[BlueDemKev]

I know it's early, but we probably should be keeping an eye on this. With the conservative base fully motivated plus some frustration and divisions on our side, we need to be careful not to let 2010 become 1994 all over again.

If we're going to make America a better place (even if only a modest bit ;-) ), we need to keep our majorities in Congress for more than 2 years.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2009/Sep/13/election_trouble_brewing_for_house_dems_in_2010.html

[Turbineguy]

1. It would be a shame to lose the majority.

It would give the repubs the chance they want to finish off the USA.

[BlueDemKev]

3. That's pretty much why.....

....I've been urging us not to push too far to the left. Not that I embrace liberal values, but sadly, there are more people in the U.S. who consider themselves "conservative" than "liberal." Doesn't mean we can't win elections, but we have to be prudent in our policies.

[BlueDemKev]

6. OOPS....

...CORRECTION: I meant to say "not that I DON'T embrace liberal values..."

[angryfirelord]

10. We don't have a majority

We have progressives, DINOs, neocons, and one extreme libertarian, a la Ron Paul. If we had a majority, we wouldn't be compromising over everything. Not that being a moderate (and I'll usually vote for a moderate if I think their positions are reasonable) is bad, but something as critical as health care isn't something that can be crippled and stripped away until only the insurance companies benefit from it.

[vi5]

2. Health care will be my benchmark...

If they handle this like they've handled everything else so far since gaining power back, which is to say capitulating to the mythical "centrists" and "moderates", and worrying more about what republicans who will never vote for them and the beltway media think of them than they do their base, their constituents and liberals in general then I will be sitting out my first election in 20 years of voting.

I've never done that and I've never not voted a straight dem ticket. But with "my party" in the white house, controlling the senate and controlling the house, if they can't show some strength and some leadership and show me why it's better to have them in power then I'm done with them. I'm tired of the goal post being moved.

"Well, yeah, we have a majority but we don't have the white house......o.k. well we have the white house but we don't have a super majority. Well o.k. we have a super majority and the white house but they're not all liberals and we don't want them to be mad at us so please don't primary challenge those centrists and please keep sending us money and....."

Yeah. Done with it. Done with the excuses. Done with being taken for granted.

Pass a healthcare reform with some real changes that aren't geard towards insurance company giveaways and i'll donate and I'll vote. Fail again and that's that for me.

Edited to add: I don't mean that a good bill will have to have single payer or even a public option. But something without mandates and with MUCH tighter regulation of the insurance industry and their shitty practices.

[kelly1mm]

4. My prediction = Dems lose 31 seats in House, 2 in Senate ....

based on lower voter turnout (especially from young voters and minorities)coupled with continued frustration with jobless recovery and the historically normal off year bump for the opposition party.

[Laelth]

5. RCP SUX.

I think there's very little chance that we will lose Congress in 2010. The political climate is really very different now than it was in 1994. In 1994, the Republican Party's approval ratings were not in the toilet. The ghost of Ronald Reagan was much more powerful then. Whereas Clinton followed Bush I, Obama follows one of the least popular politicians in American history, Bush II. Clinton was elected with less than 50% of the popular vote. Obama was elected with well over 50% of the popular vote. The religious right had not completely taken over the Republican Party then. Now, Republican politicians are generally insane, reflecting their rabid base.

I think Obama blew his first chance at health care reform by pushing for a weak plan. I think he should table the idea, for now, and push for single payer in 2011. The current system is unsustainable, and everyone knows it. Change will come. Let's not settle for a bailout of the insurance industry. Let's insist on the eradication of it.

I expect the Democratic Party will pick up 3 seats in the Senate and between 3-6 seats in the House UNLESS Congress passes a disastrous "insurance reform" bill. At this point, I would rather do nothing than to pass any of the bills under consideration in Congress (HR 676 excepted, of course).

:dem:

-Laelth

[Stevepol]

7. Keep in mind that ES&S and Diebold can now coordinate their vote rigging more easily..

The approx. 4% tilt toward the Repubs will almost certainly be even greater in 2010, especially in critical races.

The theft of the ballot box is perhaps the biggest reason we have the far-right sub-culture we have at present. The voters out there who wd support the irrational seem much greater in number than they actually are because we don't have a democracy anymore.

Fixing the broken election system shd have been job one many years ago. This is the equivalent of global warming in the political arena. It is destroying the fabric of American life.

[verges]

9. Diebold is in the process of

selling it's voting machine division. It's no longer in the election business.

[craigmatic]

8. They could lose 6 in the senate and maybe 20 in the house