This post relates partially to a thead started here by DrDon:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=316x50Last year, I attended an AIPAC event as a guest of my friend, who is a member. I actually didn't know it was an AIPAC event until after I got there, my friend had billed it as merely a lecture. In any event, the speaker was a woman professor living in Chicago whose name escapes me right now, and the subject was voting for Kerry or Bush.
She basically made several points:
1) Based on demographic trends, Jewish political strength in the US was at its height right now, and would eventually decline in future years as the trends became established.
2) Older Jewish voters were as strongly Democratic as ever, but younger Jewish voters were skewing increasingly Republican, to the point where an even split was not inconceivable.
3) The fastest growing segment of the American Jewish population was Orthodox/Hasidic/Haredi Jews, who are more politically (and culturally) conservative than Reformed or Conservative Jews.
4) In recognition of what she saw as the inevitable decline in Jewish political strength in the US, she advocated for a political alliance in America between Jews and either one of two other demographics: Latinos, or fundamentalist Christians. This assessment was based primarily on the demographic studies she had observed. Those two demographics were the fastest-growing ones in America, and had the highest birthrates and/or immigration rates.
5) She compared both Kerry's and Bush's positions on Israel. Although she praised both men on their support for Israel, and claimed to be neutral on the election, she made the point that Bush was more likely to give Israel a "blank check" and less likely to pressure Israel for concessions, and that people who made their voting decisions based primarily on Israel should take that into consideration.
I found the whole lecture fascinating. It seems clear to me that the Democratic Party cannot take for granted one of our most loyal constituencies. The demographic information was very interesting, and the idea of a political alliance with either fundamentalist Christians or Latinos was also very eye-opening.
DTH