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Nothing I'd like better than to see Cleveland advance. However a close examination of the 2007 season series suggests a different scenario.
The two teams met only six times in 2007, and New York won them all. Telling stats:
Runs Scored: N.Y. 49, CLE 17
Batting Average: N.Y. .348, CLE .228
Slugging%: N.Y. .588, CLE 345
On Base% N.Y. .396, CLE .290
Strikeouts: N.Y. 21, CLE 45
Walks: N.Y.18, CLE 13
Home Runs: N.Y. 14, CLE 4
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Individual hitting:
Peralta: .045 Michaels: .188 Garko: .150 Sizemore: .182 Blake: .200 Martinez: .337 Hafner: .667 (three games)
Giambi: .500 Jeter: .400 Abreu: .440 A-Rod: .330 Cano: .304 Damon: .316 Posada: .300 (three games) Matsui: .417 (three games) Molina: .385 (three games)
The first series in April played in New York saw match-ups of Brian Westbrook vs Chase Wright (Westbrook gave up 8 runs in 1.2 innings), Jeremy Sowers (six runs 2.2 innings) vs. Kei Igawa, and Fausto Carmona vs Darrell Rasner. Carmona held the Yankees to 2 runs in 6 innings, but closer Joe Borowski, in a non-save situation, lost the game by giving up 6 runs in the bottom of the ninth.
They met again in early August and New York continued their dominance -- Carmona (4 runs, 7 innings) vs. Phil Hughes, Paul Byrd (7 runs, 2 innings) vs. Mark Mussina and Westbrook vs. Andy Pettitte. Westbrook had a better outing here, giving up 4 runs in 7 innings, but Cleveland lost 5-3.
New York didn't face C.C. Sabathia in either of these series. But Cleveland didn't face Chien-Ming Wang either (In 2006 Cleveland batted .327 against Wang in 49 at bats, but 24 of those -- representing eight hits -- are from players no longer with Cleveland). -------
Following the Yankees series sweep on August 14th, Cleveland began their run for the division finishing August 12-4 (17-11 overall) and going 19-7 through the end of year -- 31-18. In the same period N.Y. went 28-17
Better numbers for Cleveland, but it won't help them here. This team goes brain-dead against New York. I'll pick Yankees in four. New York plays smarter and has greater patience at the plate (Cleveland batters have shown a tendency to underachieve in crucial games). N.Y. is a little deeper on the bench and bullpen. Joe Torre will out-manage Eric Wedge.
But I really hope I'm wrong.
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