Tropical Depression No. 1 expected to hit the Gulf Coast

[merh]

Tropical Depression #1 - (Possibly Hurricane Arlene)
Anticipated Land Fall Mississippi/Louisiana





http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-01A/ftrack.html

[merh]

1. Latest Five Strike Probabilities

WTNT71 KNHC 082102
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

19.9N 84.3W 38 1 X X 39 TAMPA FL X X 1 5 6
22.2N 85.1W 5 25 1 X 31 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 6 6
24.5N 86.3W X 13 11 1 25 ST MARKS FL X X X 7 7
MWCG 193N 814W 7 3 1 X 11 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 9 10
MUCF 221N 805W X 1 X 1 2 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 9 10
MUSN 216N 826W 3 14 X 1 18 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 10 11
MUHA 230N 824W X 7 4 1 12 MOBILE AL X X 1 10 11
MUAN 219N 850W 8 24 X X 32 GULFPORT MS X X 1 11 12
MMCZ 205N 869W 9 9 1 X 19 BURAS LA X X 2 12 14
MHNJ 165N 859W 6 X X X 6 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 11 12
MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 3 4 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 10 10
MARATHON FL X X 1 3 4 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 6 6
MIAMI FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 5 5
W PALM BEACH FL X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX X X X 4 4
FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 9 11
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X X 4 10 14
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W X X 6 10 16
KEY WEST FL X X 3 3 6 GULF 28N 91W X X 2 11 13
MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 93W X X X 8 8
FT MYERS FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 95W X X X 5 5
VENICE FL X X 1 6 7 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1118279661-HAAT71US.TXT.html.en

[merh]

2. Forecast/Advisory Number 1

WTNT21 KNHC 082050
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
2100Z WED JUN 08 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.1N 84.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.9N 84.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 86.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 88.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 34.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 37.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1118279073-HAFT21US.TXT.html.en

[merh]

3. Tropical Depression #1's Three Day Cone

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105W_sm2+gif/211225W_sm.gif


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/211225.shtml?3day

[merh]

4. Tropical Storm #1's Strike Probabilities

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105P_sm2+gif/211225P_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/211225.shtml?prob

[Kolesar]

6. Another tense prelude in New Orleans

The city that pumps out its storm water because it is below sea level.

[merh]

7. Looks like Mobile, AL

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105W_sm2+gif/150054W_sm.gif

[HeeBGBz]

5. I'm moving to the MS Gulf Coast in 3 weeks

Watch this be the one hurricane to pass through the area this season.

I'm feeling a little disgruntled. Something only you weatherheads might understand.

[merh]

8. Disgruntled? I don't follow, sorry.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/150054F120_sm.gif

[HeeBGBz]

9. Disgruntled about missing a storm

I love the adrenaline rush of hurricane preparation.

[merh]

10. With the way this season is starting,

it looks like you will have plenty of opportunities for that natural rush. :hi:

[HeeBGBz]

11. Yeah, I was thinking about that too

This hurricane season could cure me of my severe weather fetish.

[merh]

12. After awhile, it is just one big headache.

Having to board up and secure things. I lived one summer with my house boarded up for 3 months. I felt like a mushroom by the end of the season.

[HeeBGBz]

15. Supposed to be 30% more hurricanes this year

That's what they just said on the Weather Channel.

[all.of.me]

16. yikes!

and isn't it starting early this year? when does hurricane season 'officially' start? this just seems too early.

[HeeBGBz]

17. June, I think

Just started. Arlene seems to be a strangely acting storm with it's action all focused on the east side.

[merh]

18. I hope they are no 30% more for MS Gulf Coast.

Not wishing bad on anyone else, but I don't want a casino in my back yard. :hi:

[SW FL Dem]

13. A good link for Hurricane info

I relied alot on this site last year and they were pretty good.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

Another helpful site is

http://hurricanealley.net/

Last year I actually paid to join this one because they tended to have more hurricane computer models and more up to date information than some of the others.


Hope everyone stays safe and dry this hurricane season. We in FL definitely don't need a repeat of last year.

[HeeBGBz]

14. Looks like Gulfport/Biloxi now

Talked to my daughter today. Sometime Saturday they are supposed to get it.

[merh]

19. They are still predicting the MS/AL line.

I just don't want it to stall and intensify.

[HeeBGBz]

20. Looks like the east side of the storm is gonna be the worst

Probably Florida panhandle and Mobile.

[Baclava]

21. I'm right in the bullseye...good thing I paid my boat insurance this year.

Lookie the pretty colors...