Weak sister - T.S. Irene

[Baclava]

Yes - I'm bored and haven't got to do this lately..but, look at the pretty colored lines!

[redsoxliberal]

1. my thinking:

(oh, and btw, it has an eye!)


Irene makes it somewhere just east of hatteras around 35N... then begins to turn NNE then NE... then maybe even straight E... passing S and E of Cape Cod around 40n 70w... I don't think this one ever makes landfall... but I can certainly see pretty severe damage on the OBX by a Category 2 hurricane passing within 25 miles... obviously a slight west jog and it's landfall.

[Baclava]

2. It's gasping for air, for sure...

We'll see what happens as it slows...nice eye!

[redsoxliberal]

3. gasping for air?

looking pretty healthy to me... much more so than 24 hrs ago... maybe a cane tomorrow night?

[Baclava]

4. There's still a lot of dry air out in front of it...

I don't see it strengthening that much anytime soon...

[redsoxliberal]

5. getting into favourable waters:

warmer to the west, and less shear!

Hurricane by Saturday almost surely!

[ramapo]

6. A possible East Coaster

This track might bring her smack into NJ. It's been a long, long time since NJ had a direct hit and the delusionists think it just can't happen.

In some places the barrier islands are only a couple of blocks wide. Someday there will be a rude awakening. Will Irene deliver it?

[redsoxliberal]

7. no...

a big ass ridge will prevent that from happening... and zonal flow pretty much from 37N up... Irene will not be able to make it that far north without being forced east as well... basically I don't think this one makes landfall... but if it does it will be in North Carolina... the only other place that may see *some* effect is Cape Cod, Nantucket as it heads to sea to their south... possibly some gusty winds for a brief time and maybe even a tropical downpour or too... but I think even that is unlikely.

[redsoxliberal]

8. up to 65 MPH... cane by 5PM

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121439
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI AUG 12 2005

...IRENE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER ON SATELLITE...AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED TO CHECK LATER TODAY...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT
300 MILES... 485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 700
MILES...1125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE WILL CHECK IRENE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...28.3 N... 66.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Baclava]

9. The tracking pic in my first post is self-updating

In case anybody's interested...those are so cool...the wonders of science...

OK - I'll stop now...

[redsoxliberal]

10. please do...

according to NHC, this one's a fish. We shall see.

[ramapo]

11. NJ is saved again

Looks the the current weather pattern pushes Irene far to the east.