Katrina - Hurricane Watches are now up

[Baclava]

...from Vero Beach southward to Florida City. It's now forecast that Katrina will be a minimal hurricane when it makes landfall in South Florida Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for portions of the east coast of Florida as well.

The forecast track remains similar, if not a more pronounced turn to the west as it nears south Florida.

[HeeBGBz]

1. Here we go again!

It looks marginally likely to come my way, but will have to watch it.

[redsoxliberal]

2. my thinking right now

I like the idea of a recurve... but not a very sharp recurve... as the EC has been hinting at for a while. GFS continues too far southeast (as usual) so this could turn out to be a pretty interesting event for much of the eastern seaboard...

Katrine, I think, will NOT become a hurricane BEFORE hitting Florida (maybe slightly north of Miami,) but certainly WILL become a Hurricane before it makes a second landfall near the Florida/Alabama boarder... probably as a category 1 or 2 of 85-105 MPH.

While Katrine will recurve and turn to the NNE and eventually NE, I do not believe Katrine will recurve all the way to the east due to some blocking over the atlantic:


Because of this, there could be widespread tropical downpours and flooding up and down the eastern seaboard from 8/30-9/2 along with possible wind damage.

When Katrine re-enters the Atlantic, if she is still a tropical system, she may still pack some punch as a hurricane due to relatively high SST's off of NC and VA (where I expect her to come back to the Atlantic.) That said, temperatures quickly cool closer to Cape Cod where I expect her to make somewhat of an approach, so if any wind issues appear in the northeast, I expect them to be minor... perhaps of just a strong tropical depression to mild tropical storm.


In closing... looks like Katrine will have at least some impact throughout most of the eastern seaboard.

[redsoxliberal]

3. I'm going to bust very badly on the second landfall

Probably closer to the bit of Alabama that boarders both Florida and Mississippi... and perhaps as a category 3-4 storm.

Katrina is now a hurricane... but probably will not be much more than her current 75 MPH at landfall.

[HeeBGBz]

4. I'm wondering whether I will get it this time or not

Most plot the storm heading back east after getting into the Gulf. Just wondering what the factors are that point it going in that direction. Wondering what the chances are of it hitting the Mississippi gulf coast?

[Baclava]

5. The computer models are all over the place..

I think this one coaught a lot of people off-guard...the next 48hrs will tell the tale...how far west it goes before hooking will determine everything...

[redsoxliberal]

6. it will go east because of a trough dropping through the midwest

if the first passes without picking up katrine, then it will go further west... but then there is another behind it that will CERTAINLY pick it up.

com ca:

[Jamastiene]

7. Is that computer model a joke about the truth about hurricanes?

I'm being serious. They always predict and then change the predictions because the truth is, you can't really predict what one of those bad boys will do. They can go back out to the ocean and gather steam and then come back with a fury. They can travel off to the west, but send tornadoes off to the east, they can duck, they can dive, they can hit twice in the same place. I hate hurricanes. I hate tornadoes. If there is one thing people should know about me, it is that I am a weather fanatic who hates weather. I watch because I don't want to be side swiped. I don't want to be caught off guard. I want to be the official first person to stick my head between my knees and kiss my ass goodbye, twice if necessary, if bad weather is coming. I hate bad weather. :scared: I can't help it.

[HeeBGBz]

8. That's interesting Jamastiene

We all have our reasons for being here. I love the power of nature and the chaotic changes of everything. When it comes down to it, when it's here and kicking my ass, it scares the hell out of me.

I love to photograph and watch storms, but I'm well aware it could pick me out and take me out.

[Baclava]

11. Hurricanes are alive.

They choose their own path. We can only get out of the way, and wave as they go by...then wait for the power gods to return us our AC.

[HeeBGBz]

9. Weird how this barely Cat 1 tore up so much stuff in FLA

Why? There have been Category 3 and 4's but this smaller one took out a freeway overpass? That's kind of unnerving. Plus it killed 4 people.

[Baclava]

10. "It" didn't kill 4 people...

They got killed by falling trees.

Running around outside during a hurricane is not very bright.

[HeeBGBz]

12. I see at least three plotted courses go through MS now

I guess it all depends on when it stops heading west and starts moving north.

[Baclava]

13. The BIG Big Easy hit???

I don't trust this one...I ordered me a Jacksonville hotel for the week...just in case...

[HeeBGBz]

14. New Orleans would be a bad hit

Especially with the amount of rain this is producing.

[Baclava]

15. CAT IV 145mph winds now...still headin WNW

[saigon68]

16. Its now CAT V 908 mb

This is going to be real ugly

IT WILL BE LIKE CAMILLE.

[Mutley]

17. Cat V - 175+/mph winds

I've heard as much as 50" of rain locally. My God, DUers in that area, please be safe. Please get out.

[Baclava]

18. Impressive