Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject here is some new info
Topic URL
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4512361#45129714512971, here is some new info
Posted by Tellurian on Sat Feb-09-08 10:18 PM
from one of our blogs..
Hello everyone,
I want to emphasize again. The states that would determine this nomination are OHIO, TEXAS, and PENNSYLVANIA. Hillary has very good chance of winning all three. The other states that are voting now will not determine this nomination. Caucuses are difficult to win for Hillary for the reasons I mentioned in an earlier post. MICHIGAN has allocated 73 delegates to Hillary and Hillary will also be allocated a lion’s share of the delegates from FLORIDA. In our own tally, we have to add these delegates to Hillary’s total.
No one, no one, expects Hillary to win the states today or on Tuesday. Why? Because Maryland, Virginia, and Louisiana have significant AA population voting in the Democratic primary that is going 80% for Obama. The others are caucus states. Hillary will win enough delegates in these states to stay in the lead, overall. I don’t care what momentum Obama gets out of these wins based on media coverage. It won’t affect Ohio and Texas. Obama got 10 days of absolutely one-sided positive coverage before Feb 5. Yet, he lost every big state except his own state of Illinois. In fact, I expect media coverage to start turning negative and it has already begun. NY Times, Newsweek etc have articles talking about why all the energy of his rallies do not translate to votes and how his self-referential campaign (it is all about Obama) is beginning to sound creepy.
The Hillary campiagn has managed expectations well. Yes, going into March 4 contests, the pressure will be on Hillary. What is new? The pressure has been on Hillary since Iowa. There is nothing new. The demographics of Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania favor Hillary. Overall, given how this nominating process was set up by Donna Brazille and DNC to favor Obama and hurt Clinton, I have to say that she has done very well. In spite of the best efforts of the media to bury her after Iowa, she is still standing, she is still leading in delegates and in the popular vote. Thanks to all of us she also has the money now to be competitive.
Instead of constantly wringing our hand here, let us donate money, let us encourage our friends to donate money, let us email media outlets and express our outrage at the bias against Hillary and do all we can to elect Hillary to be our next president.