Obama gets only 79% of female Democrats, 65% of Clinton supporters against McCain

[jackson_dem]

Crossposted at GDP http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5118958

Diving deeper into the great Pew poll that offered a lot of subgroup analysis these two numbers are nothing short of horrifying to anyone interested in Democratic victory in November. The often mentioned "25% of Clinton supporters will vote for McCain over Obama" is accurate but not all of the remainder goes to Obama. 65% does. That means it is conceivable that McCain could win up to 30% of the Clinton vote if Obama is nominated.

Gender among Democratic voters

Female: Obama 79, McCain 15
Female: Clinton 93, McCain 5

Male: Obama 84, McCain 14
Female: Clinton 84, McCain 12

Primary preference

Obama vs. McCain

Clinton supporters: Obama 65, McCain 25
Obama supporters: Obama 97, McCain 3

Clinton vs. McCain

Clinton supporters: Clinton 98, McCain 1
Obama supporters: Clinton 86, McCain 10

These are the current numbers. Obama's negatives have continued to increase for a year. How bad would these numbers be by November if he is nominated? To put this in perspective Reagan won 24% of Democratic votes in 1984. The result? A 49 state landslide for him. Yes. Obama, the greatest politician ever, is flirting with Mondale level party defections. It is not inconceivable that when it is all said and done 25-30% of Democrats vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee. Of course there is also the possibility that the party rallies around Obama, although don't expect Obama to come close to matching the performance of every Democrat from 1992-2004 (the Dem average of the Democratic major party vote during that period is 93%). Besides that is a massive gambit. No party wants to go into an election gambling with party unity. The party formally united around Mondale too after a bruising primary and he still lost 24% of Democrats. Mondale's problem was Reagan was very popular; Obama's problem is many voters simply do not think he is qualified to be president. This explains the discrepancy between his favorablity/unfavorability rating, which while consistently in decline, still remain pretty good and his performance against McCain. Mondale could at least hope that Reagan's popularity would slip for some reason, such as scandal. Where can Obama get on the job training over the next year?