How much would gas be if oil was at $30 per barrel?

[AngryAmish]

Someone told me that for the Alberta oil sands to be viable the price per barrel of oil would have to be $30 per barrel. I am also told that there are vast amounts of oil there.

Why not just make a treaty with Canada and Mexico that says we will buy our oil exclusively from them? (And any other friendly nation). It would set a floor for petroleum products but it would create certainty also. Then the US gov't would invest the necessary money (directly or through contractors) to exploit the oil sands. Then make it a law the US can only get their petroleum products from friendly nations.

I don't have the exact prices but I think $30 oil would be $2.00 or so gas. I can live with that. It would also let the nutbags in the Middle East who hate us soil their own nest and we could leave them alone.

[tularetom]

1. I dunno - once the oil companies get a taste of

these obscene profits it's going to be hard to wean themselves off the $3+ per gallon prices. Hell, they still have to pay the CEO of Exxon almost $1/2 billion don't they?

[endarkenment]

2. $300? Extractions costs are enormous.

I think your numbers are off by a factor of 10 and that the price of a gallon of gas would be on the order of $12/gallon.

[William769]

3. Would still be the same price.

They would just tax the hell out of it for Companies like Halliburton & that little thing we have going on in Iraq.

[Brundle_Fly]

4. America can't

the US dollar is the currency for trading oil, removing themselves as a purchaser from OPEC would allow the Middle Eastern gas countries to start trading in the EURO.

This is essentially the same as calling in a debt as the US gets pretty much free reign on the money injected....

basically it would be a massive blow to the US dollar and economy, something like what happened in Argentina a few years back.

[AngryAmish]

5. This is not true

Name another time in history when a commodity has changed it's trading currency that crashed the currency. It has never happened.

Same as calling in a debt? Please explain to me. Thanks.

[Brundle_Fly]

7. hmm...

here is some info...there is lots more... read about peak oil as well/.

http://ist-socrates.berkeley.edu/~pdscott/iraq.html

http://www.rationalrevolution.net/war/opec_iraq_euro.htm

[MacDuff]

6. Goodbye $30/barrel

Well, oil isn't $30 a barrel - it's trading above $74/barrel on the world market - most likely because we've reached Peak Oil - the point where world demand exceeds world supply (note this does not mean world oil production has peaked necessarily, just that demand has exceeded supply) - what you are seeing now is a bidding war where only those buyers with deep pockets will be able to afford the oil - poor countries who do not produce oil will begin to drop out as the price heads up.

As for tar sands - the biggest (two) problems are 1) the ENORMOUS amount of natural gas that processing the sands requires (at a time when natural gas is becoming more scarce and expensive) - and 2) the amount of water that processing the sands requires - and of course the vile waste water left over... Tar Sands (along with other non-conventional sources) have a poor EROI (energy return on investment) compared to crude - they will help deal with America's thirst for driving, but not solve the cost issues - today's prices make go up and down a little - but I would get used to them, and start figuring out how to have a life that relies less on gas-guzzling autos.

We are being told that gas is so expensive because of refining bottlenecks (mostly) - and there is some truth to this on the east coast, where they are switching to ethanol as an additive - but the truth is, crude imports to the US are DOWN since February, which really only makes sense (at high prices like we are seeing) if Peak Oil has occured (as some believe happened in Decemeber 2005).

If you are interested in learning more about Peak Oil, and discussions of associated issues - I suggest you look into or

[Strelnikov_]

8. DU GD Groupthink Violation

2002 (+) 1.8 M bbl/dy Price $20/bbl-> $31/bbl
2003 (+) 3.4 M bbl/dy Price $31/bbl-> $31/bbl
2004 (+) 2.4 M bbl/dy Price $31/bbl-> $42/bbl
2005 (+) 0.3 M bbl/dy Price $42/bbl-> $62/bbl
2006 ~ 0 (a)M bbl/dy Price $62/bbl-> $71/bbl

(a) all indications are that supply in 06 has fallen.

So, in the face of increasing price, we have a steady increase in production, just as one would expect (even in 2002/03 with the overlay of the Iraq buildup/invasion ~ sabre rattling).

Then, suddenly, in 2005, production flatlines.

Price drop? No.

Recession reducing demand? No.

OPEC, a cartel that could not even keep it's act together during the relatively low prices of the 90's oil glut, finally are working in unison, and contrary to past (seemingly annual now) statements that the current price of oil is too high? I wasn't born yesterday.

Oh, but no. The high prices can't be that of which we shall not speak.

It just has to be Big Oil collusion Bushco sabre rattling Ahjad sabre rattling lack of investment OPEC collusion Chindia demand . . . and on and on and on. . .

Yet, nearly every article mentions 'supply problems', in passing, always secondary to the talking point of the day.

There is a lot of money to be made in the initial stages of that of which we shall not speak, some of which will not be made if the 'consumers' catch wind of the unmentionable, and begin to make other economic and political arrangements.

Sarcasm Off: I fully agree with everything you posted. EROEI/Thermodynamics (re: tar sands, oil shale, deep water, <insert non-conventional source here> ) looks like it is going to cause the effects of that of which we shall not speak to hit harder and faster than most of us who have followed this issue imagined. Matt Simmons, in an interview I heard recently, noted that ~0.9 M bbl/dy of US domestic production is from stripper wells where the petroleum energy extracted is less than the electrical energy used in pumping.

On the refinery issue I feel we have been somewhat played. Then again, the private sector is not in the business maintaining excess capacity, or building capacity for feedstock that may not exist.